Early Predictions for the Top "13" in 2011-2012?

[Edward Powers]

For the fun of it, does anyone care to share their thoughts on next year's Top Dozen or so Teams? Early impressions suggest that some traditional powerhouses like State College and Maggie Walker must rebuild, while other outstanding teams like Stevenson, Alpharetta and Copley must do likewise. So, who does that leave still standing among this year's very best going into next year? Given returning players, some teams seem well positioned to make a great run next year, and here are my very unscientific predictions for next year's 'Baker's Dozen" of what appear to be the best teams returning:

1. Hunter College---right now, this probably the deepest team in the US; its entire A & B teams are returning after its excellent 2nd place finish at the NSC;
2. Seven Lakes---put up amazing stats at the HSNCT and has everyone coming back, I think; if not everyone, then drop it about 10 spots;
3. Bellarmine---for two straight years one of the best in the country, and it has several great players returning along with some rising stars;
4. IMSA---another outstanding team coming back fully loaded;
5. Centennial---If Adam can get some help, this team will be a threat all year;
6. LASA---losing all of its great seniors, this program is loaded and I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up in a National final in 2012;
7. Dorman---this perennial power always seems to be able to reload, and its excellent B Team this year will doubtless maintain school traditions;
8. DCC---like Dorman, this program is almost always deep; the underclassmen from both its A & B teams should make a great team in 2011-2012;
9. St. Anselm's---if Aidan & Jacob get help, Anselm's can give anyone trouble;
10. Rockford Auburn---with two great players returning, and a great circuit to hone their skills, Auburn will be dangerous again;
11. Thomas Jefferson---another great program that simply seems to re-load; the underclassmen from both its A & B teams will certainly form a great new team;
12. Carbondale---like Centennial, if Ben can get any help, the sky is the limit for this team;
13. Dunbar---a perennial power, it too seems to just reload, and with Idrees leading the way, Dunbar will remain a threat to anyone.

Teams on the cusp? Loyola; GDS; Cistercian and possibly my own St Joe's. Others that might also be terrific IF they have their core players returning (which I do not know) are Ladue Horton Watkins, Novi, Early College of Guilford, and Enloe. And no doubt I have overlooked some excellent teams. So, anyone care to share their own "Baker's Dozen" and, perhaps, also share knowledge of outstanding teams whose names do not appear here?

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

Ladue Horton Watkins

Max was a sophomore, Ben was a freshman, Zev graduated.

[Edward Powers]

Charlie,

Given your greater knowledge & insight into the abilty & potential of the returning Ladue team, where might you place them on such a list, remembering of course this is meant to be fun yet somewhat accurate, given current knowledge of the teams & programs as we know them?

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

I would probably move them well into your top 10, the only reason Max and Ben especially didn't score even more at the HSNCT was because Zev overlapped a lot with them. When Ben played at NASAT he ended up being the team's #2 scorer and got a lot of great buzzes here or there on really deep stuff, and they have made a point of developing a decent player out of Haohang as well (she got 50 ppg playing on Ladue D once and can occasionally murder a question here or there in science) so I certainly expect Ladue to greatly improve and already be about as good as they were at HSNCT even with Zev leaving.

Jiawei from Seven Lakes is going to UT in the fall from what I hear.

[Sniper, No Sniping!]

I don't think we'll see State College fall off the map this coming year. Granted, I don't think they'll crest the top 10, but I think they'll have a very competitive team next year; given that their B and C team seemed to have some depth this past year. I think Detroit Country Day will be a force likewise with Centennial (GA). EDIT: I will also throw in that Olmsted Falls, Northmont (freshman phenom Sam Blizzard) Warren G. Harding, while they might not be "Top 13", I think they'll be very strong, particularly WGH, who returns an all senior A team from the HSNCT, including the #8 overall scorer in the prelims, Michael Coates.

[Windmill Tump]

Novi

Everyone on their A team was a senior.

[Edward Powers]

Thanks for the info about Novi, which obviously has to rebuild.

As for Seven Lakes, I thought Jiawei was a Junior this year, hence my very high rating for Seven Lakes next year. Nevertheless, it still has a very deep team and might still be a Top 13 squad despite this great loss. So, I would move everyone up a slot and re-rank it as number 13, given this new information.

And given the history of great teams like State College or Maggie Walker, I am sure no one would be surprised if they had great teams in the very near future, but their B Teams were no where near as competitive as those from DCC or Dorman or TJ or LASA or Hunter, so it is hard to see at this point in time how they can pierce the Top 13 here or any comparable Top X Numbered list right now. Of course you are correct to remind us that such programs have a history of greatness, so your comments, although they do not change my mind at this moment, are duly noted and appreciated.

EDIT: Charlie, I forgot to ask: How far up within the Top 13 0r 10 would you place Ladue? And who might you move out to place Ladue in?

[Down and out in Quintana Roo]

GDS loses no one, perhaps, so don't forget them.

[Sniper, No Sniping!]

Thanks for the info about Novi, which obviously has to rebuild.

As for Seven Lakes, I thought Jiawei was a Junior this year, hence my very high rating for Seven Lakes next year. Nevertheless, it still has a very deep team and might still be a Top 13 squad despite this great loss. So, I would move everyone up a slot and re-rank it as number 13, given this new information.

And given the history of great teams like State College or Maggie Walker, I am sure no one would be surprised if they had great teams in the very near future, but their B Teams were no where near as competitive as those from DCC or Dorman or TJ or LASA or Hunter, so it is hard to see at this point in time how they can pierce the Top 13 here or any comparable Top X Numbered list right now. Of course you are correct to remind us that such programs have a history of greatness, so your comments, although they do not change my mind at this moment, are duly noted and appreciated.

Seven Lakes does return two members of team Texas, sophomore Carlo DeGuzman and senior Daniel Chapman, so I think they'll be in great contention as well. edit: yeah you already addressed their depth. oops

[Rococo A Go Go]

Manual

EDIT: I guess to add a little info to this post, they return everyone from their HSNCT team that finished tied for 8th. If Dunbar's in the conversation (which they should be) then Manual definitely should as well.

[Edward Powers]

I did not forget GDS---I placed them right on the cusp---perhaps 14th-18th or so, but with hard work over the summer and throughout the year, I would not be surprised to see GDS become one of the truly elite teams.

[Edward Powers]

Hilltopper,

Would you place Manual above Dunbar? Who is coming back from Manual?

EDIT: If Manual has everyone coming back, surely they are in the conversation, given their outstanding performance at HSNCT. They probably belong somewhere in the Top 13, and probably nearer its upper half.

[Rococo A Go Go]

Hilltopper,

Would you place Manual above Dunbar? Who is coming back from Manual?

I think that at this point, I would probably place Manual ahead of Dunbar, but not by too much.

[Sniper, No Sniping!]

Where do people see LASA this coming year? They graduate the whole A team supposedly, but B through D (especially B) were really good at the HSNCT, making the Sunday rounds.

[Edward Powers]

I will defer to your greater knowledge of the Kentucky circuit; further, Manual's upset of undefeated Dorman at the HSNCT was surely one of the most surprising events of the tournament, but Manual's many other quality wins at HSNCT suggest that this win was no fluke and they also support your claim that this team of underclassmen can be very successful indeed in 2011-2012.

[Edward Powers]

Charlie,

I guess you did not see my edit above: How far into the Top 10 would you place Ladue? I did see Ben at NASAT and he did have some very nice buzzes. Teaming with young Max, whom I gather is the real deal, makes for a very nice core for next year. So, given the other outstanding programs of which you are aware, how far up do you put this still quite young Ladue team?

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

I honestly have no idea where they might stack up within the top tier. Unfortunately they didn't go to PACE where you get a much better idea of how teams stack up against a lot of other similarly competitive teams, and they haven't had a great opportunity otherwise to play a lot of teams from out of state, and I haven't seen a number of these teams either, so it's really hard to say.

[Edward Powers]

Say it ain't so, Charlie---are you being modest? LOL! Seriously, I understand not wanting to compare Ladue to teams you have not seen. Still, I could not resist teasing you a little!

[WSchneider]

1. Hunter College---right now, this probably the deepest team in the US; its entire A & B teams are returning after its excellent 2nd place finish at the NSC;

I second this. Hunter next year, assuming they continue to improve, is going to be scary good...

[etchdulac]

As for Seven Lakes, I thought Jiawei was a Junior this year, hence my very high rating for Seven Lakes next year. Nevertheless, it still has a very deep team and might still be a Top 13 squad despite this great loss. So, I would move everyone up a slot and re-rank it as number 13, given this new information.

Just so everybody is working with the same info: Jiawei and Jonathan who were at HSNCT (tied for eighth) have graduated; the Seven Lakes team that took 14th at NSC is next year's team: Carlo DeGuzman, Daniel Chapman, Alex Corbin and Alex Cai. As was mentioned, Carlo and Daniel chipped in with Benji and Thomas to win NASAT as Team Texas. Seven Lakes appears to be the early favorite for best team in Texas next year, and they will aim to be a Top 12 team once more, having already produced a solid national showing without Jiawei.

6. LASA---losing all of its great seniors, this program is loaded and I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up in a National final in 2012.

LASA B this year was really young, and while I think they could be an awesome team in two years, I think any "national final" expectations for 2012 are overshooting just a bit. LASA B tied for 21st, I think, at HSNCT; while they will certainly look to shoot higher than that next year and should be competitive with Seven Lakes, their peak should be two years away. With Kealing's middle-school successes, this may be the last year for a long time that LASA isn't a Top 5 kind of team.

Teams on the cusp? Cistercian

Vimal will be a junior, having been the second highest-scoring sophomore (playoffs and superplayoffs) at NSC, and Cistercian's chances of success rely heavily on the team's ability to build support structure around him, with James Yoder graduating. In that regard, Cistercian is less of a known quantity (for me at least) then LASA or Seven Lakes.

[Edward Powers]

This is an informative and interesting analysis of these 3 Texas programs. Thanks for providing it. And I did see the Seven Lakes youngsters play for team Texas at NASAT and they were quite impressive. One thing I wish NAQT would include in it stats, as PACE does at the NSC and HSAPQ does at NASAT, is the current year of each player competing, for it would provide greater insight into each team's prospects for upcoming years.

[Sniper, No Sniping!]

This is an informative and interesting analysis of these 3 Texas programs. Thanks for providing it. And I did see the Seven Lakes youngsters play for team Texas at NASAT and they were quite impressive. One thing I wish NAQT would include in it stats, as PACE does at the NSC and HSAPQ does at NASAT, is the current year of each player competing, for it would provide greater insight into each team's prospects for upcoming years.

I really like this idea, but NAQT already posts enough personal information that could compromise a player's identity, such as the school the player is from, the address of the school etc. I would imagine there'd be some legal disclaimer things that'd have to be signed off first by the advisers/(or legal guardians?) in the first place, not to mention keeping individual statistics I believe is strictly volunteer at tournaments.

[Cheynem]

Are you kidding me? I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm pretty sure when you agree to participate in such public activities, you are in effect declaring a public identity. We are not asking students to give their home address or personal information, just their grade.

[Sniper, No Sniping!]

Are you kidding me? I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm pretty sure when you agree to participate in such public activities, you are in effect declaring a public identity. We are not asking students to give their home address or personal information, just their grade.

Some people get really weird and uptight about personal information like this (don't know why, just they way they are). I wouldn't have a problem if NAQT put my grade on the stats, then again I already have a signature with my school and grad. class year on it, but in theory theres going to be parents out there that probably don't want their little Johnny Player's grade posted on a public website where the school's address and name is clearly visible at the same time. Especially if its a really small school that lives in a lowly densely populated area where its very distinguishable who Johnny Player is. Also I think some school districts could have rules on these matters.

[Steeve Ho You Fat]

Are you kidding me? I'm not trying to be rude, but I'm pretty sure when you agree to participate in such public activities, you are in effect declaring a public identity. We are not asking students to give their home address or personal information, just their grade.

Some people get really weird and uptight about personal information like this (don't know why, just they way they are). I wouldn't have a problem if NAQT put my grade on the stats, then again I already have a signature with my school and grad. class year on it, but in theory theres going to be parents out there that probably don't want their little Johnny Player's grade posted on a public website where the school's address and name is clearly visible at the same time. Especially if its a really small school that lives in a lowly densely populated area where its very distinguishable who Johnny Player is. Also I think some school districts could have rules on these matters.

Then they should sue HSAPQ and PACE, because they both do it, and nobody complains to my knowledge.

[Rufous-capped Thornbill]

They should also sue their own school districts because, and maybe this is just my school, they publish stuff like honor roll lists online with the students' grades and everything.

[at your pleasure]

Not to mention the DC area TV shows, both of which have the players announce their year.
EDIT: Quizmaster Challenge and It's Academic do this, no idea what Battle of the Brains does.

[Edward Powers]

Returning to the main theme of this forum, does anyone have any comments on the original "Top 13" posted above? Based on comments so far, it seems perhaps I have somewhat, but not entirely, overvalued teams from Texas, perhaps placing too much pressure on teams that are still fairly young. Further, it has also been suggested that perhaps some teams, like du Pont Manual and Ladue Watkins Horton, should be on this preliminary list.

Have any other teams been overlooked? Or, just for fun, would anyone care to post an alternative "Bakers' Dozen"?

[Harpie's Feather Duster]

Let's not forget about Loyola Academy. Nolan Winkler is really good and him and Marcel are both returning next year. They're definitely around as good as Carbondale if not better, coming from the experience of playing them both.

[Edward Powers]

I did not forget about Loyola; I believe it was the first school I placed "on the cusp" of the "Bakers' Dozen" I had mentioned. I know how good Nolan and Marcel can be, having played them in both 2010 and 2011 at the NSC. Nevertheless, thanks for reminding me that perhaps Loyola deserves even greater consideration than I originally gave it.

[Edward Powers]

Woe is me! No one cares to play along and predict their own Top 13 for 2011-2012? I thought quizbowlers were fun lovin' types! No one can come up with an alternative TOP 13 FOR 2011-2012? (one that MUST minimally include the talented du Pont Manual for sure!!!!!!)??????????? Hard to believe people are so SHY!

EDIT: Where's Fred when you need him? He knows how to stir a pot!!! :-)

[AKKOLADE]

Let me count a few up for this year first.

[Smuttynose Island]

I suppose that I'll bite. With the loss of both State College's and LASA's A teams along with many other great teams, it looks as if this coming year might be a rebuilding year for High School quizbowl, although I'm sure that many of these teams will look to prove that wrong. The following are my top-13 for next year:

1. Hunter A - This team returns everyone from their 2nd place team at PACE and with all the teams that you could rank above them this year losing significant players, they are next year's early front runner.
2. Bellarmine - This team returns Nikhil and Ankit from their PACE team and appear to have good underclassmen to replace Tanay and Phil. It 's that supporting cast that places Bellarmine above the next team in my rankings.
3. Centennial - Adam Silverman is the reigning NAQT high scorer and their's no reason why he won't get better and push this team that finished T-5th at HSNCT higher.
4. Rockford Auburn - This team returns it's two highest scorers from it's PACE NSC superplayoff team, one of whom is one of the premier high school players in the country. There is no reason why they shouldn't be competeing for a national title next year.
5. duPont Manuel - They return everyone from a team that finished T-8th at HNCT. 'Nuff said.
6. Ladue Horton Watkins - With the return of Max, probably the best rising Junior in the country, and a good supporting cast this team will make waves next year.
7. Seven Lakes - This is a team that finished 14th at PACE NSC, where it showed that it could compete with some of the best even without Jawei.
8. St. Anselm's - Otherwise known as the Aidan and Jacob Show, this team should be the best team in the DC/MD/VA region and compete for a superplayoffs spot next year.
9. TJ A - Perhaps I'm overrating them because they're my old high school, but my old TJ B compadres, who came in 16th at NSC and T-8th at HSNCT, won't miss me at all as James, who played on A team at both Nationals, will join them.
0. LASA A - LASA loses all of it's amazing A team from this year, but returns everyone from their B team that put up almost 20ppb at HSNCT and went 8-2 in the prelims.
11. IMSA - With the return of everyone from this year, this team will look to improve upon it's T-13th finish at HSNCT and their somewhat disappointing 25th place finish at NSC.
12. Dunbar A - This team returns most of it's scoring from this year, which saw it place top 13 at both national tournaments.
13. Dorman A - Even though this team loses almost all of their scoring from last year, they return 3/4ths of their B team that finished in the top 25 at both National tournaments.

[Edward Powers]

I think I like your list a little more than my own. I certainly overlooked du Pont Manual in my original list, and I surely missed Seven Lakes' loss of its seniors. Still, I do not think I agree with dropping DCC from the list; I would have kept them in and perhaps listed Ladue or the young LASA team as "on the cusp". And, have you ever seen Ben Chametzky play? He is stellar, and with any help, Carbondale will become like Centennial---a truly elite and dangerous team.

Thanks for playing!

BTW: Do you have any teams that are close and and who might threaten to break into the Top 13? Any sleepers?

And, does anyone else care to play and venture a separate list or to suggest teams that should be listed but are not?

[Angstrom]

As a student, especially one only two years into quiz bowl, I have nowhere near enough experience to say anything strong - but don't leave Cistercian out. You were right to put them on the cusp and the only reason I don't think they're at exactly the same level as LASA is that they lost two people.

[Smuttynose Island]

I think I like your list a little more than my own. I certainly overlooked du Pont Manual in my original list, and I surely missed Seven Lakes' loss of its seniors. Still, I do not think I agree with dropping DCC from the list; I would have kept them in and perhaps listed Ladue or the young LASA team as "on the cusp". And, have you ever seen Ben Chametzky play? He is stellar, and with any help, Carbondale will become like Centennial---a truly elite and dangerous team.

Thanks for playing!

BTW: Do you have any teams that are close and and who might threaten to break into the Top 13? Any sleepers?

And, does anyone else care to play and venture a separate list or to suggest teams that should be listed but are not?

Teams that are on the cusp in no real particular order:

These are teams that can make a very compelling case to make the top 13:
Carbondale - Ben Chametzsky is an outstanding player; however, the team is largely a two man show*, which is why they were left out of the top 13. They should have no problem improving on their somewhat disappointing (outside Top 25) finish at PACE and could easily make top 10 next year*.
Georgetown Day School - This team returns everyone, I believe, from it's T-13th team at HSNCT. Right now they are a notch below St. Anselm's and TJ A, but with some work and the leadership of Daniel Branch-Neufeld this team will be able to compete with any team next year.
Loyola - This team returns its top two scorers, one of whom is Nolan Winkler. Look for this team to soar next year.
DCC A - This team loses a lot of its scoring from its excellent 10th place finish at PACE NSC and T-13th finish at HSNCT this year; however, their B team placed exceptionally well at HSNCT, finishing above their A team with a T-8th finish there. Brandon Roach will join most of their B team from this year. That and their excellent coaching staff should have this team going far next year. I left them out of the top 13 due their disappointing performance at PACE NSC and several games, including one at NSC, that I played in against them this year.

These are teams that have an excellent chance of making top 20 next year:
Cistercian - Even though to some they may be better known for their board postings, Cistercian, with rising Junior Vimal leading the way, was a feared competitor this year on the Texas and National Quizbowl scene. Although they lose James Yoder, they should still be an excellent team next year.
St. Joseph's (NJ) - Alex Frey is an amazing player and should only improve over the course of his senior year. This team will probably never crack the top 10, but they have an excellent chance to make top 20 next year.
New Tier - Similar to St. Joseph's this team has an excellent rising senior by the name of Andrew Wang. They'll need to develop another scoring option if they want to go far next year, but look for a top 25 finish out of them.
Hunter B - Having played on an excellent B team this year, I can somewhat identify with this team. They return everyone from a team that had a very strong showing at PACE NSC this year. Look for this team to beat many A teams next year.

*Editted because Srinivas is coming back. I was using NSC stats to figure out who was coming back and he didn't play there hence the confusion. Sorry about that.

[Harpie's Feather Duster]

Has Srinivas graduated from Carbondale? He is/was Ben's second source of points and I don't really know if they have anybody to replace him as Ben's #2.

[Urech hydantoin synthesis]

Srinivas is a rising senior, I think.

[jonah]

Srinivas is a rising senior, I think.

Yep.

[Windmill Tump]

Brandon Roach will join most of their B team from this year

Bobby Dorigo Jones was actually a junior this year as well, so two of their A team players will still be there next year; I'd personally still have them in the Top 13.

[Harpie's Feather Duster]

After seeing some of them play at ACE I'd definitely consider them Top 13. Jimmy Haubert is, in particular, an absolute beast at Literature. Brandon Roach and Bobby D J are also excellent players.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

Yeah, it's a very uninformed thing to say Ben is the only scorer on Carbondale - Srinavas was not at PACE. At the HSNCT Srinavas got 22.37 pp20, when I saw him in January at WUHSAC he got closer to 30 ppg, and when Carbondale showed up to a local HSAPQ St. Louis area tournament without Ben they still won it based on Srinavas's abilities - http://results.scobo.net/SQBS.aspx?org= ... mdetail#t5

[Smuttynose Island]

Yeah, it's a very uninformed thing to say Ben is the only scorer on Carbondale - Srinavas was not at PACE.

Yeah, sorry about that. I was mostly using PACE NSC stats to figure out who was coming back, which seems to have led both me and Ed Powers to believe that Carbondale would be a one man team next year. I've edited my post and left a note about that. Thanks for the heads up.

[sssssssskkkk]

IMSA - ...their somewhat disappointing 25th place finish at NSC.

Disappointing? Yes. Totally unexpected? No, considering we were missing half of our normal mACF A team that overlaps minimally and spreads out scoring relatively evenly.

[Remember-the-Alamo-Remember-Goliad]

Now that we have reached something of a half-way point, it might of some interest
to have the orginal posts/posters return to their prognostications and comment on
how/where/why they were on the mark, or not.

Just a lazy thought on a lovely Texas MLK Day.

[Edward Powers]

Fred's current Top 13 shares 11 teams with my original Top 13, although not all are in the same exact order. My 12th & 13th---Carbondale & Dunbar---are 17 & 14, respectively, with Fred, and he has replaced these 2 with Loyola & Ladue---two teams I had on the cusp, along with GDS & Cistercian, two teams Fred also ranks in the Top 15-20. So, on the whole, "great minds think alike"---or, err alike? :-)