The Quizbowl Resource Center

With the NAQT HSNCT three weeks away, I figured I would start a thread for people to discus teams and indivduals, who will do well, who will surprise, etcetera.

Well, I have the Facebook group too...

Based off of the statistics that have been posted, I would say that the polls are mostly accurate, with Maggie Walker at the head. As for who might be the biggest surprise, I think Eden Prairie has a chance to go far, but they have not played against any of the "traditional" powers. As for who has a chance to do moderately well from Minnesota, I would argue that the four best in the state are Eden Prairie, Wayzata, St. Thomas, and DeLasalle.

By looking at the field, I'd have to say this is likely the strongest field of any quiz bowl tournament ever. I don't just mean that because of the number of teams, but also the quality of teams.

If no one noticed, every single one of the teams on the National Top-25 poll are attending. Not only that, but almost all of the "also receiving votes" teams are also attending.

Naturally, there will be some fodder at the HSNCT, but overall this is going to be an epic tournament.

I think it's really anyone's game. If the first "also receiving votes" team, Walt Whitman (who I suppose would be ranked #26) can knock off the #1 team, Maggie Walker, at a recent tournament, then I have to say that perhaps any team in the top 25 has a shot at the title this year.

It's going to be fun.

Well, Maggie Walker was missing a regular A-team player. But still, I agree with Lee.

charlieDfromNKC wrote:Well, Maggie Walker was missing a regular A-team player. But still, I agree with Lee.

I didn't know that. Who was missing?

I think Mark Guerci.

yea it was marc.

Georgia-South Carolina will be sending a strong contingent of teams with Dorman, James Island, and Aiken from SC and Chattahoochee, Central Gwinnett, Norcross, Parkview, Grayson, and Brookwood from Georgia.

I wonder if there is any other single school system that will have 5 schools represented at Nationals? Gwinnett County, GA will have five different school here this year. (All GA teams are from Gwinnett except Chattahoochee!)

jrbarry wrote:I wonder if there is any other single school system that will have 5 schools represented at Nationals? Gwinnett County, GA will have five different school here this year. (All GA teams are from Gwinnett except Chattahoochee!)

Not sure if they do this year but Montgomery county in Maryland often sends a big contingent.

iambusyeating wrote:

jrbarry wrote:I wonder if there is any other single school system that will have 5 schools represented at Nationals? Gwinnett County, GA will have five different school here this year. (All GA teams are from Gwinnett except Chattahoochee!)

Not sure if they do this year but Montgomery county in Maryland often sends a big contingent.

I believe Montgomery County sent 5 teams before, but not this year. This year Whitman, RM (X2) and Walter Johnson are going to PACE and/or NAQT Nationals for a grand total of only 4. The other 4 teams going to nationals from Maryland are from other jurisdictions. This is probably record attendance for Maryland's non-Montgomery County teams. Last year's National Championship winning Team Maryland only included players from Montgomery County (not due to exclusion of other jurisdictions, simply because the 6 best were from here). Of course, many if not most players from DC's Gonzaga, Georgetown Day School, Maret, and Sidwell Friends are from Montgomery County.

Other notable Montgomery County teams that have attended national tournaments and performed well include Blair, Blake, Rockville, Sidwell Friends (which has a campus in Montgomery County and D.C.) and to a lesser extent Churchill.

Doesn't the entire state of Minnesota count? :)

Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

killbill_07 wrote:Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

I think that there have been slightly bigger tournaments at Brookwood. But, probably not of this caliber.

I haven't seen Eden Prairie, and they may be great, but they are not even CLOSE to TJ 2005. I promise.

killbill_07 wrote:Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

They'll probably be able to get 60 playoff teams with records of 6-4 or better out of a 160 team field. But I'm pretty sure that Brookwood High School has, at some point in its history, had more than 160 teams. I don't have any of my old copies of Brookwood tournament programs in front of me, though, so either Rick would have to answer this one or it'll have to wait until I get home tonight.

I haven't seen anyone from Minnesota play this year, so I'm very interested to see what happens.

Sometime next week, I'll post my predicted 60 playoff teams based on some of my quantitative ratings with some qualitative thought thrown in. I'm not going to make any attempt to seed the 60, though. At this tournament, that's very much a crapshoot.

killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?

Matt Weiner wrote:

killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?

As far as I know, they've lost twice:

10/28/2006 (@ St. Olaf): Lost 315-215 to Orono A in the semifinals
12/9/2006 (@ Minnesota): Lost 285-245 to Minnetonka A in the quarterfinals

I don't have details on who they defeated or how many games they won at NAQT Minnesota, but I have them at 56-2 on the season.

Matt Weiner wrote:

killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?

Who have they played outside of MN?

StPickrell wrote:

Matt Weiner wrote:

killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?

Who have they played outside of MN?

To my knowledge, here's who they've played outside of Minnesota:

Hudson B (Hudson, WI) (3-10 on season): W 510-45
Regis B (Eau Claire, WI) (1-5): W 505-45
Hudson A (Hudson, WI) (2-12): W 525-(-5)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School A (Sioux Falls, SD) (25-9): W 525-110

That's it as far as I know.

Byko wrote: I don't have details on who they defeated or how many games they won at NAQT Minnesota, but I have them at 56-2 on the season.

They were undefeated at the NAQT State tournament in the prelims and won the tournament. In the MNHSQB League play, they were undefeated as well.

I think that New Trier (and other Illinois teams) will do very well. I never really considered them a top-tier team until last week, when I personally got destroyed by them and saw them beat DCC quite easily. Since New Trier claims to not be the best in Illinois (having gone 0-3 against Bloomington this year), I think we could see a few Illinois teams in the top twenty.

For me... I'm hoping that Culver makes the playoffs. If we do that, I'll be happy.

Byko wrote: To my knowledge, here's who they've played outside of Minnesota:

Hudson B (Hudson, WI) (3-10 on season): W 510-45
Regis B (Eau Claire, WI) (1-5): W 505-45
Hudson A (Hudson, WI) (2-12): W 525-(-5)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School A (Sioux Falls, SD) (25-9): W 525-110

That's it as far as I know.

Ok... They beat the crap out of those teams. But, it doesn't look like those teams were exactly powerhouses. TJ A 2005 beat the best teams in the country that bad.

quizbowllee wrote:Ok... They beat the crap out of those teams. But, it doesn't look like those teams were exactly powerhouses. TJ A 2005 beat the best teams in the country that bad.

I tried to draw a comparison but the data is kind of scanty; as best I can tell, Eden Prairie has only played in one tournament on regular NAQT questions this year that posted stats, as the Minnesota state championship hasn't put up stats yet.

In the Gopher Invitational, Eden Prairie had a BC of 23.88 and a powers per tossup heard of 0.25, and lost to Minnetonka in the quarterfinals.

In the NAQT Virginia championship from 2005, TJ had a BC of 25.54, a powers per tossup head of 0.20. While the link does not contain playoff scores, I read the final game at this tournament and can tell you that TJ beat the #2 team in the state tournament, Princess Anne, by a score of 700 to 105.

So, Eden Prairie has better powers, TJ had better BC, but TJ completely blew away even the other top-tier teams while Eden Prairie has dropped two games this year.

Once nationals are over there will be some better data to compare between TJ and whoever wins, but no matter who it ends up being, they have already been eliminated from contending from TJ's record of marching completely undefeated through every tossup-bonus format tournament that they sent their full A team to, including both NAQT and PACE nationals.

Matt Weiner wrote: So, Eden Prairie has better powers, TJ had better BC, but TJ completely blew away even the other top-tier teams while Eden Prairie has dropped two games this year.

Also, I would imagine that the set TJ played was much more difficult, at least in terms of powers.

As to the fact that Whitman beat handicapped Gov A, even our A team (Freeman) was able to beat a Mark-less Gov A (@ Ocean Lakes). Not to say Whitman is bad.

As to the strength of the field, having "played" (read 'beat to death with my own skull by') against many of the top teams, i definately think this is the DEEPEST tourney ever.

As to Eden Prairie, I think the only way to compare would be DCC's coach, if they've played them.

Brookwood Invitational Scholars Bowl had 168 teams competing one year back in the 1990s. Since 9-11, we've ranged from 120 to 140 teams in the BISB.

dsfcaptains2005 wrote:As to the fact that Whitman beat handicapped Gov A, even our A team (Freeman) was able to beat a Mark-less Gov A (@ Ocean Lakes). Not to say Whitman is bad.

To be fair, we beat Gonzaga by a pretty large margin at the same tournament (and yes, Ted was most certainly there). And the UMD tournament had a considerably more academic distribution, so it's not like we won because of speed or memorizing stock clues. In relation to the poll, it's not like Maggie Walker is the first upset we've pulled - we've beaten Chattahoochee and TJ A, as well. I wouldn't argue that we're better than those teams at all , particularly with the round to round vagaries and indecipherable distribution of NAQT packets, but I think we're in general better than we're given credit for.

At the MN state championship, EP A had a bonus conversion in the mid 24s. I believe the tournament was held on IS67.

Wigner's friend wrote:

dsfcaptains2005 wrote:As to the fact that Whitman beat handicapped Gov A, even our A team (Freeman) was able to beat a Mark-less Gov A (@ Ocean Lakes). Not to say Whitman is bad.

To be fair, we beat Gonzaga by a pretty large margin at the same tournament (and yes, Ted was most certainly there). And the UMD tournament had a considerably more academic distribution, so it's not like we won because of speed or memorizing stock clues. In relation to the poll, it's not like Maggie Walker is the first upset we've pulled - we've beaten Chattahoochee and TJ A, as well. I wouldn't argue that we're better than those teams at all , particularly with the round to round vagaries and indecipherable distribution of NAQT packets, but I think we're in general better than we're given credit for.

Oh, absolutely. I remember when you all beat us to bloody pulps. I was just saying that the times Guerci hasn't been there were times when they were beatable.

In response to that question a while ago, Kentucky has 8 teams going.
Central Hardin, Danville, Russell, Dunbar x2, Simon Kenton, MadNoHo and Paintsville. No Manual though. Interesting considering they were 12th last year and 7th the year before.

quizbowllee wrote:

killbill_07 wrote:Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

I think that there have been slightly bigger tournaments at Brookwood. But, probably not of this caliber.

I haven't seen Eden Prairie, and they may be great, but they are not even CLOSE to TJ 2005. I promise.

We aren't even CLOSE to TJ 2005. I can't understand how a team can be that good... Moreover, it's going to be our first time at a National Tournament, so that might be a setback.

Wigner's friend wrote:
but I think we're in general better than we're given credit for.

That is definitely a true statement.

Granted, we are a better team with Mark than without, but even with Mark there is an excellent chance that you would have beat us in that game at UMD.

dsfcaptains2005 wrote: I was just saying that the times Guerci hasn't been there were times when they were beatable.

Yes, but we were also beatable when Mark is there, by teams like Stuyvesant, RM B, and TJ (A or B), while nearly losing to teams like Gonzaga, RM A, State College and others. While it is flattering that people voted us number 1, and based on our season we probably deserve to be there, I suppose. But, we are definitely beatable and there are numerous teams capable of doing so. I believe nationals are wide open this year. The team that prevails will not only have to be really good but will need a bit of luck to go all the way to the championship. This is especially true given the unpredictable nature of an NAQT packet. I liken it to the NCAA basketball tournament in this regard. Upsets frequently happen, and the favorites do not always come out on top.

All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.

I agree with the dancing chicken again.

gonzagaeagleahy wrote:All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.

Is that the same a performing miracles?

iambusyeating wrote:

gonzagaeagleahy wrote:All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.

Is that the same a performing miracles?

No, but he'll do that too.

gonzagaeagleahy wrote:

iambusyeating wrote:

gonzagaeagleahy wrote:All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.

Is that the same a performing miracles?

No, but he'll do that too.

If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.

Byko wrote:If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.

If he were martyred at NAQT Nationals, only one miracle would be needed. He would need two miracles otherwise.

StPickrell wrote:

Byko wrote:If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.

If he were martyred at NAQT Nationals, only one miracle would be needed. He would need two miracles otherwise.

If he "martyred" himself in the war room, could he be canonized immediately?

Please let's not say things like that. I need his help with the Writers Bootcamp (which I think can qualify as a miracle :) ).

E.T. Chuck wrote:I need his help with the Writers Bootcamp (which I think can qualify as a miracle :) ).

He only needs one more then.

Question: Will we be able to see or hear cicadas in Chicago? That would be pretty sweet.

Hopper wrote:

StPickrell wrote:

Byko wrote:If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.

If he were martyred at NAQT Nationals, only one miracle would be needed. He would need two miracles otherwise.

If he "martyred" himself in the war room, could he be canonized immediately?

I imagine he could be canonized immediately if there were a miracle accompanying his martyrdom. However, wouldn't there have to be witnesses or something?

We are all witnesses.

Okay, time to start some more debate.

Last year, 3/8 of the HSNCT field of 128 teams made it into the playoffs with 6-4 records. So, based on that same fraction, here are the 60 teams, based on some quantitative and qualitative analysis, that I am predicting will be in this year's playoffs (listed in alphabetical order):

Bloomington (IL)
Brindlee Mountain A (AL)
Brookwood A (GA)
Brookwood B (GA)
Central Gwinnett (GA)
Charter A (DE)
Chattahoochee (GA)
Cistercian (TX)
Danville (KY)
Detroit Catholic Central A (MI)
Detroit Catholic Central B (MI)
Dorman A (SC)
Dorman B (SC)
Dunbar A (KY)
Dunbar B (KY)
E.O. Smith A (CT)
East Lansing A (MI)
Eden Prairie A (MN)
Eden Prairie B (MN)
Garfield Heights (OH)
George Mason (VA)
Georgetown Day (DC)
Gonzaga (DC)
Governor's School A (VA)
Governor's School B (VA)
Hanover (NH)
Harrison A (IN)
Hunter (NY)
James Island (SC)
Lisgar (ON)
Livingston (NJ)
Madisonville-North Hopkins (KY)
Maine South (IL)
MLK Magnet (TN)
Moravian (PA)
New Trier (IL)
North Kansas City (MO)
Novi (MI)
Orono (MN)
Raleigh Charter (NC)
Richard Montgomery A (MD)
Richard Montgomery B (MD)
Rockford Auburn (IL)
Russell (KY)
Saint Anthony Village (MN)
Santa Monica (CA)
Shady Side (PA)
St. Ignatius (IL)
St. John's (TX)
St. Thomas (MN)
State College A (PA)
State College B (PA)
Stuyvesant A (NY)
Thomas Jefferson A (VA)
Thomas Jefferson B (VA)
Troy (MI)
Walnut Hills (OH)
Walt Whitman (MD)
Wayzata A (MN)
Wheaton North (IL)

Close behind and definitely within striking distance are these 20 teams:
Aiken (SC)
Arcadia A (CA)
Benton (AR)
Cave Spring (VA)
Champlain Valley Union (VT)
Charter B (DE)
Chaska (MN)
Cretin-Derham (MN)
Edmond Memorial (OK)
Eleanor Roosevelt (MD)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School Association (SD)
Hill-Murray (MN)
Minnetonka (MN)
Mound Westonka (MN)
Norcross (GA)
Parkview Arts and Sciences Magnet (AR)
Rancho Bernardo (CA)
Savannah (MO)
Simon Kenton (KY)
Wayzata B (MN)

Okay, fire away--I'll try to defend myself.

The generally unpredictable lineup configuration/whatever of Charter A/B notwithstanding, that list looks pretty good. I personally think Eleanor Roosevelt could easily put together a 6-4 record, depending on their schedule.

I don't think every Illinois team in the field is worthy of making the playoffs. I wasn't that impressed with St. Ignatius at NAQT State and Wheaton North is too heavy on math for me to consider them as playoff contenders. I won't attempt to predict which ones it'll be, but I think that no more than four of the six make it into the playoffs.

I would say I think Liberty can go 6-4. I think they are above Savannah.

The list looks very well done, although Minnesota looks a little over-represented to me. There aren't many stats out there for Fisher Catholic (OH), but with their best lineup they have a very good chance of making playoffs.