2018-19 NC discussion

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jonathanshauf
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2018-19 NC discussion

Post by jonathanshauf » Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:44 am

Use this thread to discuss tournaments, teams, and players in the state of North Carolina for the 2018-2019 season.
Jonathan Shauf, TJ Classical 2020

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Re: 2018-19 NC discussion

Post by jonathanshauf » Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:20 pm

I guess I'll post my analysis first.

Early College look like they take a huge hit, losing Tejas and Sylvia. They return Derek and Ridge, but don't seem to retain much other significant scoring. I don't know what freshmen they bring in, but it's highly possible they gain some serious talent there, with the excellent feeder middle schools Guilford County has.

East Chapel Hill lose Vincent, but if I'm correct, they should gain middle school superstar Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford, who could instantly be one of the top high school players in the state. They retain most of their scoring outside of Vincent as well, so East Chapel Hill should certainly again be one of the top few teams in the state.

Raleigh Charter lose two very good players in Landon and Dhruv, but their immense depth should be able to cover the loss, especially if Ekartha continues to study and improve.

NCSSM lose the excellent trio of William, Stephen, and Jonathan, but retain Vittal, Aryan, and Andrew, and they usually gain good juniors too, so I expect them to be a force again.

Carrboro lose their lead scorer in Tejaz,but return Arun and presumably Jackson, so if those players improve to cover the loss of Tejaz, then Carrrboro could be good as well.

Myers Park didn't do terribly well at nationals, but they return their entire team, so if they study and improve as a team, they could be a dark horse team to make a run at state.

In general, I expect Early College's stranglehold to loosen, and there is a potential for ECH, RC, or NCSSM to surpass them at the top of the state.
Jonathan Shauf, TJ Classical 2020

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Re: 2018-19 NC discussion

Post by jaguar19 » Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:15 pm

Here are some predictions regarding the top teams in the state.

1. Early College at Guilford- The undisputed best team in the state for the last few years is also suffering one of the biggest losses, with the departure of Tejas and Sylvia. The loss of Tejas, who could score anywhere from 60 to 200 points per game, is an especially hard blow. However, Ridge and Derek have placed generally well in the rankings last year so they will likely be the ones carrying the team. In general, ECG will be still be an excellent team, just not as tough as before.

2. East Chapel Hill- The loss of Vincent is a big one, but they otherwise retains most of their strength, with Nick and Sophie having generally placed well individually. Plus, East usually gain players from Smith Middle School so they should continue to be one of the top teams in the state.

3. Raleigh Charter- Landon and Dhruv have graduated, but Arya, Ekartha, TJ, and Sam remain. Given the sheer size of their quiz bowl club and depth of knowledge that they cover, RC should be able to continue their winning streak, especially with the strength of the Sharma brothers.

4. NCSSM- They lose the trio of Jonathan, Stephen, and William, but retain Aryan, Vittal, and Andrew. While the three rising seniors are good players and will likely carry the team, whether they gain very much is another question altogether. NCSSM is a "supergroup" of players, meaning that they all came from another school before coming there. The aforementioned players for this upcoming year are from Ardrey Kell, Providence, and Guilford, respectively. However, there are not too many good players graduating in 2020 in the state of North Carolina, so that will be a factor in their performance this year.

5. Carrboro- With the loss of Tejaz and Jackson, we have a big challenge this year. Luckily, we retain Arun, who generally places well, and myself and Nick are working to improve our scoring, so how much we work will make or break our performance.
Aadit Nerkar
CHS Quiz Bowl, Class of 2019
UNCW, Class of 2023

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Re: 2018-19 NC discussion

Post by jonathanshauf » Thu Sep 06, 2018 3:07 pm

Here's my top 5:

1. Early College at Guilford A
possible A-team: Derek Chen, Ridge Ren, Ben Johnson, Kiran Soma

I think Derek and Ridge are good enough to keep them atop the state, and might be able to make a run at HSNCT. My prediction is T-32 at HSNCT.

2. East Chapel Hill A
possible A-team: Nick Parker, Sophie Cronin, William Ke, Ewan Mitchell, Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford

They could potentially be just as good as last year. My HSNCT prediction is T-32 or T-51, though.

3. Raleigh Charter A
possible A-team: Ekartha Sharma, Arya Sharma, TJ Nanugonda, Sam Eshun Danquah

Roughly the same as last year. I say they finish T-51 again.

4. NCSSM A
possible A-team: Aryan Rai, Vittal Bhat, Andrew Fu, Sophie Israel

They attended NSC instead of HSNCT last year, where they finished 66th. I expect them to be about there again. If they attend HSNCT, I would peg them at T-105.

5. TJ Classical A
possible A-team: John Kim, Jonathan Shauf, Turner White, Cole Powell

I know I'm biased here, but I think this ranking is justified. We return the vast majority of our scoring at HSNCT in myself and John Kim. I would place us at a high non-playoff finish at HSNCT.
Jonathan Shauf, TJ Classical 2020

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Re: 2018-19 NC discussion

Post by jonathanshauf » Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:50 pm

Mid-Season Analysis

1. East Chapel Hill A (Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford, Nick Parker, William Ke, Sophie Cronin, Andy Badea) Groger Rank: 66
Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford has now burst onto the scene, and if anything, he's even better than I anticipated. He's already one of the 3 best players in the state, and I think his addition is enough to propel East Chapel Hill to the best team in the state, as they already beat ECG once at Bonfire of the Manatees without him.

2. Early College At Guilford A (Ridge Ren, Derek Chen, Minchang Jang, Ben Johnson) Groger Rank: 43
Early College has two of the best players in the country in their subject areas, Ridge for history and Derek for Science. They also seem to have some decent FA coverage from Minchang as well. However, they would need to improve in other areas if they want to make a serious nationals run.

3. Raleigh Charter A (Ekartha Sharma, Arya Sharma, TJ Nanugonda, Sam Eshun Danqah) Groger Rank: 86
Although they haven't played a lot of tournaments, in those they have played in, they've pretty much lived up to the billing. They are an extremely balanced, consistent team that could certainly be a force to reckon with at states.

4. NCSSM A (Vittal Bhat, Aryan Rai, Kevin Liu, Andrew Fu) Groger Rank: 110
Like RC, they haven't played in many tournaments, and they also haven't played with the full team yet. The limited data we have suggests that they are pretty much as anticipated, though.

5. TJ Classical A (John Kim, Turner White, Jonathan Shauf, Cole Powell) Groger Rank: 102
We've got a big Fine Arts hole to fill, we neg (mostly me) too much, and we could be stronger in lit and science, but overall, we're beginning to put up some decent stats. Our 18.90 PPB on HFT speaks for itself.

6. Carborro A (Arun Chakrabarty, Aadit Nerkar, Nick Carney, Noah Gerhardt, James O'Brien, Eszter Rimanyi) Groger Rank: 121
This team certainly has some potential. Arun is a monster, and he's also beginning to get some decent support from Aadit and Nick. However, their lack of a definite 4th scorer probably hurts them. In addition, their power numbers are quite nice, but they have not broken 19 aPPB yet, so bonus conversion is definitely something for them to improve if they want to challenge the really top teams in the state and the country.

7. Simon G Atkins A (Thomas Ross, Rohan Kapileshwari, Sean Garber, Ben Armentrout) Groger Rank: 168
This is a team I have extremely limited data on, with basically their only data being from Quaker Bowl. Their stats from that do look pretty nice though, with 19.49 PPB and 3.78 powers per round.

8. Providence A (Anthony Hui, Matthew Mokos, Samanyu Dixit, Emma Harrington ?) Groger Rank: N/A
Have played nothing with what I would expect to be a full roster. They certainly have some talented players though, gaining Samanyu from Metrolina and retaining Anthony Hui.

9. Enloe A (Chinmay Talitzoti, Aneesh Purohit, Becky Rozanksy, Jacob Thayil) Groger Rank: N/A
Enloe have been decent this year. They have not been to either states or nationals since 2016 though.

10. Chapel Hill A (Sam Klosowski, Andrew Zheng, Robin Huang, Angelina Su, Gloria Su) Groger Rank: N/A
Definitely have some potential, as they quite impressively made top bracket at Bonfire of the Manatees. Like Enloe, though, they'll need to attend more tournaments if they want to improve.
Jonathan Shauf, TJ Classical 2020

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Re: 2018-19 NC discussion

Post by bkmcavoybickford » Thu Dec 20, 2018 6:31 pm

Here are my rankings for the best high school teams in North Carolina:

1. East Chapel Hill High School (Chapel Hill)- I do play for this team. However, there is a strong argument to be made for East. We won Bonfire of the Manatees. We finished the Enloe tournament 5/18, with a 5-4 record, all those losses coming in the playoffs. Our most recent finish was third at Grapes of Smath. In no tournament have we yet managed to get all of our players together, so we could easily improve once all players are together.

2. Early College at Guilford (Greensboro)- There is a strong argument to be made that this team is the best team in the state. Derek and Ridge are both very high scoring players, and the rest of the team is also quite good. They finished second at Bonfire of the Manatees, but also inconsistently bring a large number of their players to a tournament, so they could be underestimated. Guilford-East matchups at Grapes of Smath were inconclusory, as we won the first match before they defeated us in the playoffs.

3. Raleigh Charter High School (Raleigh)- I have seen neither Raleigh Charter nor NCSSM play. However, Raleigh Charter has defeated NCSSM in most of the head-to-head matchups this season I can find, albeit sometimes with close margins, as at Quaker Bowl. Their team looks very good, and their scoring is even and consistent.

4. North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics (Durham)- This team seems very good and very similar in ability to Raleigh Charter, but regularly losing to them in head-to-head matchups. They seem to have many good players, and could easily challenge any of the teams ranked above them.

5. Carrboro High School (Carrboro)- At Grapes of Smath, Carrboro looked quite impressive, including a defeat of East before going on to finish first, tied with Guilford, for the whole tournament. Arun is one of the best players in the state, it seems, and the rest of Carrboro is quite strong.

6. Thomas Jefferson Classical Academy (Mooresboro)- My ranking them below Carrboro is only an indicator of Carrboro's strength, not any weakness on the part of Thomas Jefferson. I sadly did not get to see them play at Grapes of Smath, but the stats indicate that they are a contending team at the tournaments they attend.

7. Enloe High School (Raleigh)- A strong team. I don't know too much about them, but they seem plenty good, even if maybe not quite about to win a game with the top teams in the state.

Other A teams that I think will be good, not really ordered: Simon G. Atkins Academic and Technology High School (Winston-Salem), Chapel Hill (Chapel Hill), Richmond Senior High School (Rockingham), Providence Senior High School (Charlotte), Cardinal Gibbons High School (Raleigh)

Other teams that have played tournaments: Johnston County Early College Academy (Smithfield), Garner Magnet High School (Garner), Jordan-Matthews High School (Siler City), Cross Creek Early College High School (Fayetteville), Middle Creek High School (Apex), Panther Creek High School (Cary)

I don't really feel that I can evaluate B teams, nor middle school teams, but I am sure that most of the best schools in NC will have the best B teams. Smith will probably be the best middle school in NC, followed by Browns Summit.

Please tell me if I got any information wrong.
Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford. Smith 15-18. East Chapel Hill 18-?

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Re: 2018-19 NC discussion

Post by jaguar19 » Tue Apr 23, 2019 6:33 pm

With nationals season underway, I thought I would put out some predictions for nationals. I am only doing predictions for NAQT nationals (SSNCT and HSNCT), as there aren't many NC teams heading to NSC.

Early College at Guilford
Last ranking: 54th
Description: ECG is led by two very strong players. Ridge and Derek are the team’s lead history and science players, respectively, and the two best players in the state. They tend to overlap in other areas and have solid support from players like Minchang and Trisha. Given their immense depth and high power numbers, they are poised to repeat the previous year’s success at SSNCT, and could pull off several upsets at HSNCT.
Prelim prediction: 8-2 (SSNCT); 7-3 (HSNCT)

East Chapel Hill
Last ranking: 101st
Description: East Chapel Hill has five immensely talented players providing deep coverage. Benjamin is the lead scorer/generalist (an impressive feat given he is only a freshman) and has strong support from the rest of the team. History is their strongest area as Benjamin, Nick, Ewan, and William all cover it at a deep level. Sophie can also do history, but is especially strong in literature. Behind history, fine arts is another very strong area for the team due to coverage from multiple players. Seeing statistics throughout the year, the main weakness that East has is negging. Their negs usually come in streaks, though the team averaged nearly 4.7 negs per match at the BHSAT mirror and negged as much as 7-8 times in some rounds. If they curb their negging, East is certainly destined for a long run at nationals.
Prelim prediction: 7-3 (HSNCT)

Raleigh Charter
Last ranking: 113th
Description: Throughout the year, Raleigh Charter has demonstrated an immense level of balance and depth. Science is their strong suit, as Arya, Ekartha, TJ, and Sam all cover it, but they have coverage in all areas, including pop culture. However, they have the tendency to engage in “stacking,” the practice of bringing more than four players on one team, leading to constant subbing. Also, similar to East, they have a negging habit, averaging five negs per match at the BHSAT mirror. How much they limit their subbing and negging at Nationals will determine Raleigh Charter’s place.
Prelim prediction: 6-4 (HSNCT)

Simon G. Atkins
Last ranking: 244th
Description: Atkins is one of two NC schools that would be deserving of an underdog award. Despite only competing in a total of three regular season tournaments, they managed to finish the top tier of States, second only to Guilford. On top of that, they have beaten and/or outranked Guilford, Raleigh Charter, and NCSSM in some manner. Judging from Quaker Bowl, where we beat them in a very tight match, they are a deep, efficient team that is not to be trifled with. Thomas is the primary scorer, and Rohan and Sean provide solid support. Their main weakness is that they have played very little during the regular season and never competed at the national level. Thus, it remains to be seen how they will scale up to the faster paced rounds and tougher teams.
Prelim prediction: 6-4 (HSNCT)

Thomas Jefferson Classical
Last ranking: 168th
Description: Along with Atkins, TJ is another NC team that has epitomized the underdog story. They have made a name for themselves on harder sets such as HFT, and what they don’t necessarily have in skill, they make up for with determination. John and Jonathan are the team’s lead scorers and history specialists, and Cole and Turner cover the team in areas such as science and mythology. Given their consistent competition throughout the year and good team chemistry, I feel that TJ is destined to make the playoffs at HSNCT.
Prelim prediction: 6-4 (HSNCT)

Carrboro
Last ranking: 201st
Description: We have faced several bumps during the year, but have generally put up decent stats. History and literature are our best areas as Nick, Arun, and I can all power questions in the categories. On top of that, we have beaten and/or outranked East, NCSSM, TJ, and Atkins at some point in the season. James O’Brien will be our fourth scorer for nationals. This is beneficial because he can cover science and pop culture, thus giving us double coverage for science with him and Arun. We tend to go on negging streaks, which has cost us matches against teams we may have otherwise beaten and led to a very lackluster performance at States. Personally, I can cover history, geography, current events, and pop culture through general knowledge, but my lack of buzzer aggression makes me vulnerable when playing tougher teams. The shifty buzzing habits of our lead scorers will make or break our performance at nationals.
Prelim prediction: 6-4 (HSNCT)

I don’t know enough about the teams below to comment on their performance or make any predictions for them. They will be attending SSNCT and/or HSNCT:
Piedmont Classical
Myers Park
Providence A
Providence B
Lincolnton
Thales Academy-Rolesville

Thoughts?
Aadit Nerkar
CHS Quiz Bowl, Class of 2019
UNCW, Class of 2023

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