Pointless Predictions for 2015 Nobel Prize in Literature

ValenciaQBowl · Post by **ValenciaQBowl** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:32 pm

It's time again for some incorrect efforts at prognosticating which author will emerge from a room full of Swedes, lutefisk, and Aquavit as the recipient of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Literature. The honoree will join titans of 20th-century thought such as Verner von Heiderstam, Jacinto Benavente, and Harry Martinson!

As always, to aid in your prediction, here's a link to the odds posted by Britain's Ladbrokes: https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/bett ... 220019571/

For the second year in a row, I'm going to go with Joyce Carol Oates. So prolific, and so clearly close to not being eligible anymore, as can be seen in the pic at the top of this article, in which she appears to be reaching for the doorknob of her crypt: http://www.latimes.com/books/jacketcopy ... story.html. But seriously, they just have to pick an American sometime, don't they???

So place your bets!

PS--Note that we have a first appearance on the Ladbrokes list of Serious Author George RR Martin! I hope the South Park trilogy referencing A Song of Ice and Fire helps his chances.

Post by **theMoMA** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:45 pm

I don't know who Svetlana Alexievich is, but based on a short perusal of her biography, I'm assuming she will win. I will be rooting for noted lingerie salesman Bob Dylan.

1992 in spaceflight · Post by **1992 in spaceflight** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:48 pm

I'm going to go with Philip Roth. An American has to win sometime!

ValenciaQBowl · Post by **ValenciaQBowl** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:22 pm

Yeah, Ms. Alexievich was on the list last year, but not so high, and I also had never bothered to read about her till just now. I'm skeptical a writer of only non-fiction could win; has that ever happened before? (Yes, you can google that for me).

But maybe Murakami really will finally break through--he allows for selection of a Japanese writer who is so close to American in some ways that it could kind of kill both birds with one stone.

coldstonesteveaustin · Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:26 pm

Somehow, deceased author EL Doctorow has odds of 50/1.

merv1618 · Post by **merv1618** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:17 pm

Hidehiro Anto wrote:Somehow, deceased author EL Doctorow has odds of 50/1.

They probably meant EL James

The Atom Strikes! · Post by **The Atom Strikes!** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:44 pm

ValenciaQBowl wrote:Yeah, Ms. Alexievich was on the list last year, but not so high, and I also had never bothered to read about her till just now. I'm skeptical a writer of only non-fiction could win; has that ever happened before? (Yes, you can google that for me).

Winston Churchill won for nonfiction writing, IIRC.

Edit: Bertrand Russell also won for nonfiction.

The Stately Rhododendron · Tue Oct 06, 2015 6:55 pm

Maybe it's time for Ngugi? It hasn't gone to Africa in a bit and they missed out on Achebe.

After Krasznahorkai's win in the Booker, it's only a matter of time before he's put on one of these lists. When that happens it'll be a

ValenciaQBowl · Post by **ValenciaQBowl** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:19 pm

Winston Churchill won for nonfiction writing, IIRC.

Edit: Bertrand Russell also won for nonfiction.

Ah, yes! Probably should've just pulled those, but as in matches, wasn't going to happen. But I'm not sure I'd put this Belarussian writer in their class just yet.

vinteuil · Post by **vinteuil** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:47 pm

The Atom Strikes! wrote:
ValenciaQBowl wrote:Yeah, Ms. Alexievich was on the list last year, but not so high, and I also had never bothered to read about her till just now. I'm skeptical a writer of only non-fiction could win; has that ever happened before? (Yes, you can google that for me).

Winston Churchill won for nonfiction writing, IIRC.

Edit: Bertrand Russell also won for nonfiction.

Don't forget Bergson!

I'm with Isaac for Ngugi—enough waiting is enough waiting!

sonstige · Post by **sonstige** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:50 pm

The Stately Rhododendron wrote:It hasn't gone to Africa in a bit and they missed out on Achebe.

I'm picking Nuruddin Farah. Chris, if you want to borrow my copy of "Maps" sometime, let me know. It's on my shelf waiting for someone to read it.

My dark horse is Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, who will actually win in 2027.

Maury Island incident · Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:35 pm

sonstige wrote:
The Stately Rhododendron wrote:It hasn't gone to Africa in a bit and they missed out on Achebe.
I'm picking Nuruddin Farah. Chris, if you want to borrow my copy of "Maps" sometime, let me know. It's on my shelf waiting for someone to read it.

My dark horse is Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie, who will actually win in 2027.

I'm on Team Ngugi 2015, as well. The prize certainly hasn't gone to Africa in a while. I also think the committee will go for a more mainstream author this year, after the decidedly non-mainstream Modiano last year. Ngugi is African, fairly mainstream, and old enough for a Nobel. As much as I love Adichie, she has plenty more time to put out more great works before her inevitable Nobel. 2027 sounds about right for her.

vinteuil · Post by **vinteuil** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:38 pm

Generating Steam Heat wrote:decidedly non-mainstream Modiano last year.

Mainstream in France, which counts for Sweden.

Maury Island incident · Tue Oct 06, 2015 8:51 pm

vinteuil wrote:
Generating Steam Heat wrote:decidedly non-mainstream Modiano last year.
Mainstream in France, which counts for Sweden.

Fair enough. I think we can all agree they'll be getting out of Europe this year, though.

yeah viv talk nah · Post by **yeah viv talk nah** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:26 pm

Adonis, maybe?

Post by **theMoMA** » Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:32 pm

ValenciaQBowl wrote:Ah, yes! Probably should've just pulled those, but as in matches, wasn't going to happen. But I'm not sure I'd put this Belarussian writer in their class just yet.

And your unwillingness to elevate a little-known continental European author to such lofty heights is the reason you're not on the Nobel committee!

Post by **Auks Ran Ova** » Wed Oct 07, 2015 3:07 pm

What, you don't think they gave Churchill the Nobel on the strength of Savrola? Anyway, Theodor Mommsen won the second lit Nobel ever for his history, and possibly the least famous Nobel winner, Rudolf Christian Eucken, was a philosopher, so there's historical and obscurantist precedent!

So I'm still obviously rooting for Murakami, but I don't think he's dying any time soon. I don't think they'll go American this year either--it would not at all surprise me if Alice Munro two years ago was at least in part a sop to North America so they can continue spiting the US/waiting until Philip Roth dies (pick your favorite conspiracy). Ngugi seems like a good guess and a very deserving winner, though a real Nobel conspiracist would tell you that they gave it to an African writer as recently as 2008 (look it up!!). I'm also surprised the odds on Knausgaard are so high given how much My Struggle has been blowing up lately.

Since also betting on Ngugi would be boring, my low-odds pick is John Banville and my high-odds pick is Mia Couto.

Rufous-capped Thornbill · Wed Oct 07, 2015 6:18 pm

Who I would pick: Laszlo Krasznahorkai

Who probably is most deserving of it: Murakami, Ngugi

Who I would not be surprised to see win (but I have not read much/any of): John Banville, Svetlana Alexievich.

What will probably happen: none of these people win

philip roth

The Stately Rhododendron · Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:38 am

Inkana7 wrote:Who I would pick: Laszlo Krasznahorkai

:heart face emoji:

jonpin · Post by **jonpin** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 9:32 am

theMoMA wrote:I don't know who Svetlana Alexievich is, but based on a short perusal of her biography, I'm assuming she will win. I will be rooting for noted lingerie salesman Bob Dylan.

a winner is you

ValenciaQBowl · Post by **ValenciaQBowl** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 10:05 am

Alexievich it is, then. Underwhelming. But good call, Andrew!

Post by **theMoMA** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 12:25 pm

The Nobel committee is nothing if not consistent.

Post by **Auks Ran Ova** » Thu Oct 08, 2015 5:08 pm

Ladbrokes has been so reliable at giving someone other than the eventual winner the best odds that I ruled out the possibility of her actually winning from the start!

Dirty Water · Post by **Dirty Water** » Thu Oct 13, 2016 7:29 am

theMoMA wrote:I don't know who Svetlana Alexievich is, but based on a short perusal of her biography, I'm assuming she will win. I will be rooting for noted lingerie salesman Bob Dylan.

Prophetic.

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Pointless Predictions for 2015 Nobel Prize in Literature

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