Search found 13 matches

by NGTech
Tue Apr 05, 2011 3:53 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Alright, a word to the wise then. Don't assume that a high school field where literally a third of the teams are coached by noted idiot Robin Richards and the rest are of varying degrees of not being active on the national circuit is at all going to be a good way to determine what college quizbowle...
by NGTech
Tue Apr 05, 2011 11:22 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Conveniently, there were leftover packets, which would've allowed you to do this, wherein teams that had competed at a similar level during the first round-robin would play an additional game, providing more information to rank the teams. And had the best team still not been certain, you may even h...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 9:31 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Also, all teams in a round robin play what amounts to the same schedule, so by trying to find the "most difficult schedule" you're "solving" a problem that doesn't even exist in your own format. While it may seem to be trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist the problem does in fact exist. The...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:28 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Software is copyrighted under the Berne Convention as a literary work as soon as it is placed in a written form. The U.S. is a member of the Berne Convention. Yes, the *software* is copyrighted, but algorithms themselves are not patentable. While it is true that the algorithm itself isn't protected...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:09 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Not that anyone would bother to use it, but you can't copyright an algorithm. Perhaps you want to patent it, but you can't patent algorithms--first, you have to implement it in software, then patent it; then you'd be able to stop us from using it in software. However, that's probably above your pay...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 7:29 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

So in your test of the stat (as used at the tournament) on the ACF Nationals stats, your stat then predicted 9/182 games correctly? The stat was never design for the purpose of determining match winners, it was designed to find the team with the hardest schedule in a set. It was only meant as a met...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 3:53 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Did you use it so that the team with the lower "quality rating" is expected to win the game? Because that's apparently how you used it to break ties. Unfortunately I had to flip it. Without the W-L being accounted for all the stat would tell me is who had the hardest schedule. In the tweak I used t...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 1:59 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

As requested I used the 2010 ACF Nationals to test the stat we used. To test only the stat I did no sorting based on W-L. As such the statistic was able to predict the Preliminary outcome to and overall accuracy of 71%. This is better than the calculated values for other tie breakers, and this is t...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 11:22 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

I'll again note that it's still not 100% clear to me whether a higher Q-rating or a lower Q-rating was privileged by this tournament. However, I took the ten minutes to enter all 28 games into a spreadsheet and calculate the ratings. USC's score is 9.892 and Georgia's is 8.956. Chatta's score is 8....
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 8:38 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Using PPB predicts the winner ~90% of the time in the prelims of 2010 ACF Nationals (72/78 correct in Red and 69/78 correct in Black). Granted, this was calculated without removing the game's effect on the PPB, but it seems unlikely that this would decrease its accuracy by 20% or more. I made my co...
by NGTech
Mon Apr 04, 2011 1:34 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

As requested I used the 2010 ACF Nationals to test the stat we used. To test only the stat I did no sorting based on W-L. As such the statistic was able to predict the Preliminary outcome to and overall accuracy of 71%. This is better than the calculated values for other tie breakers, and this is th...
by NGTech
Sun Apr 03, 2011 2:31 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

My equations are based on the design used by FIRST. FIRST has been using their statistic for 15 years to break ties and determine the winners of the preliminary rounds. I'm not sure why this matters. I don't understand what relationship FIRST could possibly have to quizbowl. I use the relationship ...
by NGTech
Sun Apr 03, 2011 12:44 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU
Replies: 165
Views: 53818

Re: MUT Mirror 4/2 @ NGCSU

Ok, the basic logical problem with your metric, as you yourself admit, is that it rewards teams for winning close games and punishes them for winning easily. This is wrong because the question should be "which is the stronger team?" and you can only assess that over the course of multiple rounds. T...