Search found 627 matches

by evilmonkey
Thu May 02, 2013 2:54 am
Forum: High school area archives
Topic: NHBB Nationals Discussion Thread
Replies: 88
Views: 18704

Re: NHBB Nationals Discussion Thread

Can someone give a longer explanation of what this "opening buzz" actually is and how it works, so those of us who weren't there have some understanding of what the issue is? At the end of the opening ceremony Friday night, David called up the defending bowl champion -- Hunter -- and it's first-rou...
by evilmonkey
Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:41 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

So, is this measure reasonably robust when you consider different populations? I'm not sure how to phrase exactly what I mean, so here's an example: Let's suppose that, somehow, Penn and UVA were invited to play the CCCT field on DI ICT questions. Since Matt and Eric are two of the three best playe...
by evilmonkey
Tue Apr 23, 2013 4:27 pm
Forum: High school area archives
Topic: Where Will You Be Going to College Next Year? 2012-13
Replies: 56
Views: 19212

Re: Where Will You Be Going to College Next Year? 2012-13

bmanzo44 wrote:I'll be going to the University of Notre Dame in the fall, and would like to play quiz bowl there.
Notre Dame does have an active team. I can put you in contact with the current leadership, if you would like.
by evilmonkey
Tue Apr 23, 2013 11:55 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

A full justification of the log5 formula. Section 1 (A and B) are the relevant sections. Also, when you were mentioning the "built-in schedule correction" - my entire reason for using the more complex likelihood-based procedure was because, when coming up with a measure, my first instinct was to us...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:45 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

So, I'm not sure how much statistical theory you know, so bear with me if you know any of this. The log5 formula comes from baseball. Let p1 be the probability that a team wins a game, where you could be playing against any team in the league. Let p2 be that probability for another team. The log5 fo...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:53 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

I also think that there are some places where you can point to the algorithm accounting for schedule differences. If you look at Cal and Ohio State, over the course of the day, Cal had 74 Powers or Negs, and 172 total buzzes in 13 games; Ohio State had 50 Powers or Negs, and 170 total buzzes, in 14 ...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:11 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

This seems heavily schedule-dependent. For example, the top teams in the second bracket will have half a tournament in which they're much more likely to get first correct buzzes, because their schedule will consist of teams less likely to buzz before them. This means that comparing those teams to t...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:16 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

Michigan A is shockingly low, probably because their PPB is listed as under 12. (I'm assuming this is an input error, though). Oops, yea, that's wrong. Thanks for the catch. It is fixed above. Funny how alphabetizing fails to simplify data entry when you type Minneapolis CTC in one place, and MCTC ...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 22, 2013 3:32 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

Howdy! So, in the absence of bonus distribution data to play with (thank you to VCU and Delaware for sharing yours; anyone else would be cool as well), I set about to try and see whether I could make something out of the numbers that I had created. After banging my head against the wall some more co...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 15, 2013 10:17 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 2013 NAQT ICT: April 13, Chicago
Replies: 27
Views: 9166

Re: 2013 NAQT ICT: April 13, Chicago

Someone at ICT mentioned in the hallway between games that they wished to talk with me about the Texas A&M statistics program. However, there were more games to be played, and we never actually got to talk about it. I'm absolutely terrible with faces/names, so if you or one of your teammates fits th...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 15, 2013 9:14 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

Did anyone else keep track of their scores by rounds at the 2013 ICT? Would any of you like to count up and PM me your bonus distribution (0s, 10s, 20s, 30s)? It took me about 5-10 minutes to do this for A&M (23-48-25-6). As mentioned previously, I'm interested in bonus distribution as a function of...
by evilmonkey
Tue Apr 09, 2013 4:11 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ICT Predictions
Replies: 54
Views: 17010

Re: ICT Predictions

30. Texas A&M. A low point occurs when Tommy Horn mishears "shantih shantih shantih" as "Shaun T, Shaun T, Shaun T" and confidently negs a tossup on "The Waste Land" with the INSANITY 60-day total body workout. Jeff Crean's mad againe. If Tommy negs Jeff out of a question, it would be quite the fea...
by evilmonkey
Mon Apr 01, 2013 1:23 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Fighting Trash Capture
Replies: 18
Views: 5042

Re: Fighting Trash Capture

I don't even think it's that. I think trash has the illusion of accessibility because it's about stuff you don't have to read books and take classes to know about, whereas playing an ACF regionals packet beats your face in repeatedly with stuff that seems so esoteric and academic that it feels insu...
by evilmonkey
Sun Mar 31, 2013 8:03 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Fighting Trash Capture
Replies: 18
Views: 5042

Re: Fighting Trash Capture

From the outside, I'm not sure there is anything you can do except encourage them to do more academic tournaments. From my times in leadership positions at Notre Dame and Texas A&M, the single most toxic thing to academic quizbowl is the guy who says "Why don't we do something fun, like a trash pack...
by evilmonkey
Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:33 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

Sam, you bring up a good point. Is this measure at all informative by itself? I honestly hadn't considered that too closely. My intial motivation was the desire to run more accurate simulations of 2013 ICT. I realized that before that task could be undertaken, I would have to create a set of statist...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:14 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

Re: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

Things I would appreciate responses on: 1) Has anyone done work along this line of thinking? 2) Given the limitations in data available, I calculated each teams' "First Buzzes" as Powers+Negs+max(0,Tens-Opp.Negs). I'm aware that this ignores certain situations. Would anyone care to comment on what t...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 29, 2013 7:03 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing
Replies: 22
Views: 5554

A Different Way to Quantify Buzzing

I just typed up a longer post explaining what these numbers are and how/why I came up with them, but my internet died while submitting, and that post disappeared into the ether. I don't have time to retype that before Good Friday services, so maybe I'll do it later, but here they are for now. They a...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 22, 2013 3:44 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: NAQT security review: three more cases
Replies: 61
Views: 19157

Re: NAQT security review: three more cases

Watkins hasn't played anything in a while and I'm not sure if Scot Putzig is still in law school, but will Joe Brosch be allowed to play non NAQT tournaments? I believe Scot graduates from law school this year, which is kind of ironic since Notre Dame Law has a strong reputation in the area of ethi...
by evilmonkey
Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:57 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: NAQT's agreement with ACUI
Replies: 242
Views: 57008

Re: NAQT's agreement with ACUI

How many graduate students have played D2, and from what teams? Texas A&M considered putting our two grad students who are new to quizbowl in D2, but it became more convenient to just put them on the team with Jeff Crean. We'll likely have at least one of those two on our D2 ICT team. One of them s...
by evilmonkey
Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:42 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

Proportion of times that ALL of the top n teams made the top bracket: 3x12 6x6 1 .9796 .9940 2 .9162 .9778 3 .8059 .9441 4 .5846 .8926 5 .3858 .8221 6 .2177 .7316 I'm not quite sure how to simulate the scenario where we have bad seeding (other than complete randomization of brackets). The problem w...
by evilmonkey
Thu Mar 14, 2013 9:37 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Terrapin Invitational Tournament 2013 (3/24/13)
Replies: 57
Views: 27880

Re: Terrapin Invitational Tournament 2013 (3/24/13)

Since we made the decision to write a packet for this tournament instead of WIT, Texas A&M (and probably Rice as well) would also favor this tournament actually happening.
by evilmonkey
Sat Mar 09, 2013 2:07 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

Given this bracketing scheme, you might have brackets like: A: {1, 11, ...} B: {2, 7, ...} C: {3, 9, ...} D: {4, 12, ...} E: {5, 8, ...} F: {6, 10, ...} If this is truly the case and the teams were not snake seeded, you have already done a large part in simulating bad seeding. That is the case - I ...
by evilmonkey
Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:14 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

Proportion of times that ALL of the top n teams made the top bracket:

Code: Select all

	3x12		6x6
1	.9796	.9940
2	.9162	.9778
3	.8059	.9441
4	.5846	.8926
5	.3858	.8221
6	.2177	.7316
I'm not quite sure how to simulate the scenario where we have bad seeding (other than complete randomization of brackets).
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:37 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Bidding: how can we get you to do it?
Replies: 28
Views: 6414

Re: Bidding: how can we get you to do it?

Although I will most likely not have any say in such decisions next year, lightening the packet-writing load would be an incentive to me.
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 10:34 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

Eric, can you explain further what you would like for me to do? Seth - here is a chart of the proportion of times each seed made the finals; as you can see, in the end it doesn't appear that there is a very big difference between the two formats in determining an overall champion. The proportion of ...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:46 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

A quick simulation that I just did: this is the probability that a given seed makes the top bracket. In this case, we should remember that the left hand column will sum to 6, and the right hand column will add to 12. I ran this with both resampling during every simulation, and keeping teams constant...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:22 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

This looks cool, but I want to make sure I understand what this says: this is saying that the team ranked number 6 out of 36 has a 64.1% chance of making the top bracket (of 6 teams) out of a 3x12 prelims, right? And, in particular, teams 4, 5, and 6 are way more likely to make the top bracket out ...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:30 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: 36-team ICT
Replies: 53
Views: 9568

Re: 36-team ICT

I decided to empirically test whether the 3x12 to 6x6 or the 6x6 to 3x12 would provide more stability. I assigned 36 teams random strengths on a (0,1) scale, and then bracketed teams in such a way that teams 1-3, 4-6, ..., 34-36 would be placed into separate brackets in the first scenario, and 1-6, ...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:31 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: autobid thread split
Replies: 62
Views: 10328

Re: autobid thread split

Cornell and Rice--both D1 teams--qualified for ICT by playing on D2 questions, which I thought was an automatic bid. Perhaps it was by D-value, though. Also, the only way qualifying for any tournament actually works is if some teams who want to go cannot go (due to not qualifying). If this was not ...
by evilmonkey
Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:46 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Splitting teams at SCT
Replies: 29
Views: 4762

Re: Splitting teams at SCT

It appears that I should verify my research more before posting, or give it a second glance when it is not 3 AM. Ohio State B and Chicago C's weak showings appear to be more based on the absence of strong players, than any attempt to split up the A team to win bids. I recant my support for my above ...
by evilmonkey
Thu Mar 07, 2013 5:27 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Splitting teams at SCT
Replies: 29
Views: 4762

Re: Splitting teams at SCT

EDIT: As mentioned in my below post, I retract the conclusions of this post. The autobid situation is way more pressing than the B team situation by any measure and is also way more plausible to deal with. I don't know why the focus has fallen on the less important, less practical-to-fix aspect of q...
by evilmonkey
Thu Mar 07, 2013 4:36 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: autobid thread split
Replies: 62
Views: 10328

Re: autobid thread split

Without autobids, Texas A&M would have wished to play a full A-team in an attempt to qualify for ICT. As we are now down to three members with at least one year of collegiate quizbowl experience, this would have prevented us from effectively running a tournament. I'm pretty sure Rice would be in a s...
by evilmonkey
Mon Mar 04, 2013 4:48 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Terrapin Invitational Tournament 2013 (3/24/13)
Replies: 57
Views: 27880

Re: Terrapin Invitational Tournament 2013 (3/24/13)

Did you receive the packet from Texas A&M that we sent in on Saturday? It isn't listed in the initial post, and I have not received any other confirmation from you.
by evilmonkey
Mon Feb 25, 2013 9:03 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ACF Regionals 2013 General Discussion
Replies: 56
Views: 12610

Re: ACF Regionals 2013 General Discussion

Points per Bonus descriptive stats: Minimum: 3.46 1st Q: 10.45 Mean: 13.51 Median: 14.06 3rd Q: 17.1 Maximum: 23.53 This indicates to me that in general, bonuses were just a bit too difficult for the field. The left-skewness of the distribution is a result of the presence of a few teams that probabl...
by evilmonkey
Mon Feb 25, 2013 8:04 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ACF Regionals "D-Values"
Replies: 0
Views: 813

ACF Regionals "D-Values"

Someone yesterday mentioned that it would be nice if someone applied the D-Value formula to ACF Regionals. The Canada site has not yet posted its results, but I thought I would post what I had worked up. If anyone has tips on how to get the columns to straighten out, it would be appreciated: they ar...
by evilmonkey
Sun Feb 24, 2013 10:02 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition
Replies: 42
Views: 12492

Re: Collegiate Poll: Late Midseason Edition

Andrew, A&M has no business being anywhere close to ranked. Our A team this year is marginally worse than the team that placed 30th out of 32 at ICT last year.
by evilmonkey
Sat Feb 09, 2013 7:33 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Region 12 SCT at Texas A&M University - Feb. 9, 2013
Replies: 3
Views: 1429

Re: Region 12 SCT at Texas A&M University - Feb. 9, 2013

We had a combined-field, 10 team sectionals here in College Station. We played a full round robin. After 9 rounds, Rice A defeated Texas A&M B in the first round of an advantaged title to take the Overall and Undergraduate crown. A&M B took the DII crown by virtue of a 3 game lead in the standings a...
by evilmonkey
Mon Jan 21, 2013 7:30 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Region 12 SCT at Texas A&M University - Feb. 9, 2013
Replies: 3
Views: 1429

Re: Region 12 SCT at Texas A&M University - Feb. 9, 2013

Current Field:
DI
Rice
Texas A&M

DII
Rice
Texas A&M
East Central Oklahoma
Oklahoma St. x3
by evilmonkey
Sun Jan 20, 2013 3:56 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Region 12 SCT at Texas A&M University - Feb. 9, 2013
Replies: 3
Views: 1429

Region 12 SCT at Texas A&M University - Feb. 9, 2013

Howdy! Aggie Quiz Bowl is pleased to announce that we will be hosting the Region 12 NAQT Sectional Championship Tournament on the campus of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas on February 9, 2012. Our fees are as follows: Base Fee: $120/team New School Discount: -$20/team (No SCT/ICT/CCCT...
by evilmonkey
Tue Sep 25, 2012 11:02 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Collegiate Novice 3 at Rice (09/29)
Replies: 0
Views: 982

Collegiate Novice 3 at Rice (09/29)

Rice University will be hosting a mirror of Collegiate Novice 3 on Saturday, September 29. I (Bryce Durgin) will be the tournament organizer/director for this site. This tournament is intended as an early introduction for collegiate novices to college quizbowl. It aims to be extremely accessible whi...
by evilmonkey
Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:55 pm
Forum: New Collegiate Teams
Topic: I Need Advice.
Replies: 11
Views: 6307

Re: I Need Advice.

Honestly, if its a one-year deal, and they are giving you money and faculty support, and their only stipulation is that you only use Honors kids for this year - take the deal, and don't break the rules. This will give you a chance to interact with the faculty, and develop a relationship that may get...
by evilmonkey
Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:13 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Changes for ACF tournaments in 2012-2013
Replies: 23
Views: 5496

Re: Changes for ACF tournaments in 2012-2013

Yikes! I'm 0-2 on this thread. Somehow in my reading and rereading, I missed seeing Aaron explicitly asking the question I asked. Thank you for responding anyways, Jerry.
by evilmonkey
Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:22 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Changes for ACF tournaments in 2012-2013
Replies: 23
Views: 5496

Re: Changes for ACF tournaments in 2012-2013

Hi, Bryce-- ACF has required hosts to provide trophies and book prizes for top teams/players for at least three years (since we started publishing guidelines for hosts in 2009). The new rule only changes who buys the trophies, not whether they're required, and it's disappointing (though, unfortunat...
by evilmonkey
Sun Jun 03, 2012 3:30 am
Forum: College area archives
Topic: Changes for ACF tournaments in 2012-2013
Replies: 23
Views: 5496

Re: Changes for ACF tournaments in 2012-2013

Mandatory trophies? I mean, granted, I'm never in position to win one, but everything I've ever heard is that no one gives a damn about trophies, and that is why book prizes exist in the first place. Moreover, I really don't see a place where a circuit will benefit from these trophies. I'm not reall...
by evilmonkey
Sat Feb 25, 2012 8:05 pm
Forum: Quizbowl History Forum
Topic: HSNCT Then and Now
Replies: 7
Views: 5990

Re: HSNCT Then and Now

Dwight - I love the work. Did you run any tests on negs? I ask because among the many possible reasons for increased power rate, a decreased neg rate is one of the few that can be meaningfully tested.
by evilmonkey
Mon Feb 20, 2012 10:57 pm
Forum: College area archives
Topic: ACF Regionals 2012 Discussion
Replies: 119
Views: 37094

Re: ACF Regionals 2012 Discussion

In Texas, we moderators had a long discussion about the antiprompts. For example, in the two treatises of government tossup there was an instruction to antiprompt players who buzzed with the answer "second treatise of government". To me, such an answer seems like it should just be wrong since the t...