Applying player stats

Dormant threads from the high school sections are preserved here.
Locked
User avatar
rchschem
Yuna
Posts: 779
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2003 7:36 am
Location: Durham, NC

Applying player stats

Post by rchschem » Fri May 04, 2012 8:18 am

I am interested in determining a P/N break point below which I can tell a player to sit on his hands. I know it's dependent on the question and the player, the team and opponent's bonus conversion in a match, the score, and probably some other factors.

This would be a crude guideline because of course the choice to power is a judgment call. But sometimes, as a coach, I want to be able to tell a kid to not take the risk because I know he tends to miss. Or maybe this is only a grossly predictive stat?

Right now I am thinking a successful power earns a team X points based on historical bonus conversion, but a neg costs the team Y points (both in hypothetical lost points and hypothetical gained points by the opponent). If Y is bigger than X, it's not worth it.

Eric
Eric Grunden, Research Triangle High School/NCATA

Windows ME
Wakka
Posts: 177
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:06 am

Re: Applying player stats

Post by Windows ME » Fri May 04, 2012 9:47 am

I'm tempted to say from experience [re: TU/N ratios]:

- if you're the best player on your team, no worse than 2 to 1 [ideally should be higher than this]
- else 3 to 1.

The latter makes sense, I'm not sure about the number for the former. 8 TU and 4 negs is a horrible ratio. Maybe (2-to-1 minus one neg)? ie. 8/3 6/2 4/1 kindof thing? 4-2 isn't bad though. Maybe a neg cap? ie. If you're the best player, once you hit 2 negs start being conservative?

Anyway I think for sure your best player needs to be more aggressive than everyone else on the team, and can afford to neg a little bit more. If you're supporting players are negging heavily it is not in the best interest of the team.

My $0.02
Sinan U.
U of Toronto 2010
U of Alberta 2015

Cubfan125
Lulu
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2010 1:00 am

Re: Applying player stats

Post by Cubfan125 » Fri May 04, 2012 11:35 am

I've always tried to aim for about 5 to 1.
Alex Kling
Latin School of Chicago class of 2012
Williams College class of 2016

touchpack
Rikku
Posts: 347
Joined: Tue Sep 20, 2011 12:25 am

Re: Applying player stats

Post by touchpack » Fri May 04, 2012 7:11 pm

Looking at some top college teams, I would say successful leading contributors tend to be no worse than 3:1 gets/neg, where successful supporting players tend to be no worse than 5-6:1 (obviously some players neg more or less than this though since there are a multitude of winning buzzer strategies in quiz bowl--I would hesitate to apply any hard rule)
Billy Busse
Illinois '14
President, ACF
Writer/Subject Editor/Set Editor, NAQT

User avatar
Charles Martel
Wakka
Posts: 199
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:21 am

Re: Applying player stats

Post by Charles Martel » Sat May 05, 2012 12:55 am

I've seen tournaments where successful players had a 2:1 ratio, and one of the players on our IMSA A team usually has around a 20:1 ratio.
Adam Kalinich
MIT 2012-
Illinois Math and Science Academy 2009-2012

User avatar
rchschem
Yuna
Posts: 779
Joined: Thu Apr 24, 2003 7:36 am
Location: Durham, NC

Re: Applying player stats

Post by rchschem » Sun May 06, 2012 8:10 am

Sorry--I wasn't clear. I am looking at power to neg ratio (P/N) not just tossup/neg ratio. Of course this would only apply to tournaments where powers are possible.
Eric Grunden, Research Triangle High School/NCATA

Urech hydantoin synthesis
Tidus
Posts: 523
Joined: Thu Dec 30, 2010 3:35 pm

Re: Applying player stats

Post by Urech hydantoin synthesis » Sun May 06, 2012 12:09 pm

Oh, in that case, it varies a lot more. For example, while a P/N ratio of 1:3 may not seem good, a player with a statline of 2/34/6 can be very valuable (albeit lacking deep knowledge), but a player who has the same P/N ratio can have a statline of 3/0/9, in which case he/she is definitely negging too much.
Ben Zhang

Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell '23
Columbia University '18
Ladue Horton Watkins HS '14

User avatar
Charles Martel
Wakka
Posts: 199
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2010 1:21 am

Re: Applying player stats

Post by Charles Martel » Mon May 07, 2012 9:06 pm

I consider (P+N)/(P+T+N) to be a good estimate of aggressiveness.
Adam Kalinich
MIT 2012-
Illinois Math and Science Academy 2009-2012

bag-of-worms
Lulu
Posts: 41
Joined: Sat Mar 05, 2011 9:42 pm

Re: Applying player stats

Post by bag-of-worms » Mon May 07, 2012 11:14 pm

One must also consider that an extremely conservative player can rack up many powers, for he or she simply knows a lot.
Austin
Illinois

User avatar
Francis the Talking France
Wakka
Posts: 164
Joined: Sun Oct 03, 2010 4:01 am
Location: Denver, CO
Contact:

Re: Applying player stats

Post by Francis the Talking France » Tue May 08, 2012 9:44 pm

Usually though, the players the rack up the most powers also tend to neg the most, because they believe they are most knowledgeable and buzz most aggressively, and thus neg more than other players.
Matt Duchan
Chapel Hill High School '12
University of Denver '16
Director of the 2013 Colorado State History Bowl

Locked