Applying player stats
Applying player stats
I am interested in determining a P/N break point below which I can tell a player to sit on his hands. I know it's dependent on the question and the player, the team and opponent's bonus conversion in a match, the score, and probably some other factors.
This would be a crude guideline because of course the choice to power is a judgment call. But sometimes, as a coach, I want to be able to tell a kid to not take the risk because I know he tends to miss. Or maybe this is only a grossly predictive stat?
Right now I am thinking a successful power earns a team X points based on historical bonus conversion, but a neg costs the team Y points (both in hypothetical lost points and hypothetical gained points by the opponent). If Y is bigger than X, it's not worth it.
Eric
This would be a crude guideline because of course the choice to power is a judgment call. But sometimes, as a coach, I want to be able to tell a kid to not take the risk because I know he tends to miss. Or maybe this is only a grossly predictive stat?
Right now I am thinking a successful power earns a team X points based on historical bonus conversion, but a neg costs the team Y points (both in hypothetical lost points and hypothetical gained points by the opponent). If Y is bigger than X, it's not worth it.
Eric
Eric Grunden, Research Triangle High School/NCATA
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Re: Applying player stats
I'm tempted to say from experience [re: TU/N ratios]:
- if you're the best player on your team, no worse than 2 to 1 [ideally should be higher than this]
- else 3 to 1.
The latter makes sense, I'm not sure about the number for the former. 8 TU and 4 negs is a horrible ratio. Maybe (2-to-1 minus one neg)? ie. 8/3 6/2 4/1 kindof thing? 4-2 isn't bad though. Maybe a neg cap? ie. If you're the best player, once you hit 2 negs start being conservative?
Anyway I think for sure your best player needs to be more aggressive than everyone else on the team, and can afford to neg a little bit more. If you're supporting players are negging heavily it is not in the best interest of the team.
My $0.02
- if you're the best player on your team, no worse than 2 to 1 [ideally should be higher than this]
- else 3 to 1.
The latter makes sense, I'm not sure about the number for the former. 8 TU and 4 negs is a horrible ratio. Maybe (2-to-1 minus one neg)? ie. 8/3 6/2 4/1 kindof thing? 4-2 isn't bad though. Maybe a neg cap? ie. If you're the best player, once you hit 2 negs start being conservative?
Anyway I think for sure your best player needs to be more aggressive than everyone else on the team, and can afford to neg a little bit more. If you're supporting players are negging heavily it is not in the best interest of the team.
My $0.02
Sinan U.
U of Toronto 2010
U of Alberta 2015
U of Toronto 2010
U of Alberta 2015
Re: Applying player stats
I've always tried to aim for about 5 to 1.
Alex Kling
Latin School of Chicago class of 2012
Williams College class of 2016
Latin School of Chicago class of 2012
Williams College class of 2016
Re: Applying player stats
Looking at some top college teams, I would say successful leading contributors tend to be no worse than 3:1 gets/neg, where successful supporting players tend to be no worse than 5-6:1 (obviously some players neg more or less than this though since there are a multitude of winning buzzer strategies in quiz bowl--I would hesitate to apply any hard rule)
Billy Busse
University of Illinois, B.S. '14
Rosalind Franklin University, M.S. '21, M.D. Candidate '25
Emeritus Member, ACF
Writer/Subject Editor/Set Editor, NAQT
University of Illinois, B.S. '14
Rosalind Franklin University, M.S. '21, M.D. Candidate '25
Emeritus Member, ACF
Writer/Subject Editor/Set Editor, NAQT
- Charles Martel
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Re: Applying player stats
I've seen tournaments where successful players had a 2:1 ratio, and one of the players on our IMSA A team usually has around a 20:1 ratio.
Adam Kalinich
MIT 2012-
Illinois Math and Science Academy 2009-2012
MIT 2012-
Illinois Math and Science Academy 2009-2012
Re: Applying player stats
Sorry--I wasn't clear. I am looking at power to neg ratio (P/N) not just tossup/neg ratio. Of course this would only apply to tournaments where powers are possible.
Eric Grunden, Research Triangle High School/NCATA
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- Tidus
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Re: Applying player stats
Oh, in that case, it varies a lot more. For example, while a P/N ratio of 1:3 may not seem good, a player with a statline of 2/34/6 can be very valuable (albeit lacking deep knowledge), but a player who has the same P/N ratio can have a statline of 3/0/9, in which case he/she is definitely negging too much.
Ben Zhang
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell '23
Columbia University '18
Ladue Horton Watkins HS '14
Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell '23
Columbia University '18
Ladue Horton Watkins HS '14
- Charles Martel
- Wakka
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Re: Applying player stats
I consider (P+N)/(P+T+N) to be a good estimate of aggressiveness.
Adam Kalinich
MIT 2012-
Illinois Math and Science Academy 2009-2012
MIT 2012-
Illinois Math and Science Academy 2009-2012
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Re: Applying player stats
One must also consider that an extremely conservative player can rack up many powers, for he or she simply knows a lot.
Austin
Illinois
Illinois
- Francis the Talking France
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Re: Applying player stats
Usually though, the players the rack up the most powers also tend to neg the most, because they believe they are most knowledgeable and buzz most aggressively, and thus neg more than other players.
Matt Duchan
Chapel Hill High School '12
University of Denver '16
Director of the 2013 Colorado State History Bowl
Chapel Hill High School '12
University of Denver '16
Director of the 2013 Colorado State History Bowl