Preseason Predictions
Posted: Thu Aug 17, 2017 7:00 am
With the 2017-2018 season just a few weeks away, now seems about right to begin the ever enjoyable/futile process of preseason prognostication. To toss my two cents in, I compiled personal predictions for how the top 15 teams will shake out next year, based primarily on the performance of returning players at national tournaments. Rather than specifically ranking teams, I decided to only pick a number one and then classify everyone else into tiers. Obviously, this all comes with the normal caveats about preseason predictions, particularly the difficulty of assessing teams which did not compete prominently with underclassmen.
Alright, here goes-
Frontrunner
Thomas Jefferson HSST (Alexandria, VA)
TJ spent all of last season comically underranked, partially because they entered the year with one fewer Ryan Golant then they had before. Though TJ entered nationals at #15 in the Pre-Nats poll and #21 in HSQBRank, they resoundingly asserted their top-tier quality, placing fourth at both HSNCT and PACE. Led by Rohan Hegde, TJ offered consistent, exceptionally well-rounded play and demonstrated a knack for winning close games, taking all eight games they played at PACE which were settled within a one question swing.
While other teams ended their seasons on similarly impressive notes, no other club returns as much talent as TJ. All five players who played on TJ A at HSNCT or PACE return next year, and they lose only one player from their excellent B team (a top 30 finisher at both nationals).
Think about it this way: In 2016, DCC B also placed top-5 at both nationals and returned their whole team. This past season, that DCC team came in a close second at HSNCT and went undefeated at PACE. TJ did even better at nationals than 2016 DCC B, and also returns everyone. Look out.
Championship Contenders (not ranked, in arbitrary order)
Dublin Scioto (Dublin, OH)
Amidst Jakob Myers’ individual dominance last season, it is easy to overlook just how much success Dublin Scioto’s Clark Smith enjoyed. Of particular note is Clark’s exceptional performance at PACE, during which his 132 ppg led Dublin to an impressive fifth-place finish with a near defeat of DCC along the way. Clark enters the 2017-2018 season as the best effectively-solo player in high school quizbowl, with a real shot to eclipse Jakob’s exploits from last year. His breadth and depth of knowledge give Dublin a credible chance at a national championship next spring.
Detroit Catholic Central (Novi, MI)
After a dominating season, DCC returns this year with an imposing, if not necessarily equivalent, roster. Only Robert Crawford remains from last year’s championship team, but he will be joined by rising members of DCC’s stellar B team. Though the Shamrocks don’t enter the season with the same aura of preeminence as last year, their personnel depth and unbeatable commitment cause them to rank among the best teams in the country. Given how often and successfully they compete, I would not be surprised to see DCC A hold the #1 pre-nationals spot in HSQBRank for the fourth year in a row.
Hunter (New York, NY)
The back-to-back HSNCT champs enter the 2017 season without Luke Tierney, the leading man for both of their national championships. But Luke represents Hunter A’s sole loss, as the rest of last season’s squad remains in place. Just as importantly, Hunter is poised to promote Daniel Ma, who led Hunter B to great finishes at both national tournaments. Daniel could well become equivalently skilled as Luke very soon, and if you acknowledge the shadow effect depressing the stats of Hunter A’s returning talent, a HSNCT three-peat does not seem unreasonable.
James E. Katy Taylor (Katy, TX)
William Golden continued his excellent high school career by leading Katy Taylor to a Texas Invitational win and a T-5 placing at HSNCT. If William can continue to improve as a player and maintain his stunningly low neg rate, Katy will easily be a top five team next year. The question of whether Katy can win a national title probably comes down to the team’s secondary scorers, most of whom return this season. If they grow enough to offer William top-flight support (think Luke Tierney and Hunter last season), then Katy could emerge as an HSNCT favorite.
Liberal Arts and Sciences Academy (Austin, TX)
Last year represented a rebuilding year for LASA, who finished outside the top-5 at HSNCT for the first time since 2009. But LASA will enter this season in strength, combining Graham Stockton, arguably their best player last season, with members of a stacked B team, the highest ranked second team at HSNCT. In particular, rising sophomore Chinmay Murthy appears ready to build off his exemplary rookie performance. If Chinmay becomes the all-world player he projects to be, LASA will become a tough team to beat.
Canyon Crest (San Diego, CA)
Like TJ, Canyon Crest returns all four members of an excellent 2016-2017 team. Though not nearly as dominant as TJ last year, Canyon Crest nonetheless posted a serious of impressive regular season wins (including the NAQT SoCal Championship) en route to a 13th place finish at PACE marked with wins over Dorman, LASA, and Naperville. Given another year of growth and a little more consistency, Canyon Crest could be an interesting dark horse championship candidate.
Probable Powerhouses (not ranked, in arbitrary order)
Lehigh Valley (Bethlehem, PA)
Alex Schmidt is at least high school quizbowl’s second best effectively-solo player and maintains a huge upside with top-5 potential.
Beavercreek (Beavercreek, OH)
After an okay showing at HSNCT, Beavercreek excelled at PACE. Hari Parameswaran with another year of growth is an intimidating notion.
Arcadia (Arcadia, CA)
Arcadia returns much of a solid 2016-2017 team, including lead scorers Matt Forster and Andrew Hoagland. With some growth and luck, Arcadia could challenge Canyon Crest for the Southern California title.
Chattahoochee (Johns Creek, GA)
Only Kevin Huang returns from last year’s excellent team, but the omnipresent depth of Chattahoochee’s program gives them a chance at equaling last year’s success.
Montgomery Blair (Silver Spring, MD)
Yes, I’m ranking my own team here, but not without due cause. Blair returns all but one player from a team which placed 15th HSNCT, and we have a deep bench of rising talent from last year’s solid B team. Hopefully we can give TJ a run for their money in the DC metro.
Adlai Stevenson (Lincolnshire, IL)
Stevenson loses Ali Saeed and much of their high-caliber team from last year, but rising sophomore Govind Prabhakar could easily grow into an all-world player.
Rockford Auburn (Rockford, IL)
Ethan Strombeck was very impressive at PACE and NASAT last season, and with some development, Rockford Auburn could compete with Stevenson (and Fremd) for best team in Illinois.
Richard Montgomery (Rockville, MD)
After comically terrible luck during the HSNCT playoffs, Richard Montgomery rebounded with a strong showing at PACE. All of RM’s PACE team returns next year, and given their science and history depth, they could break into the top 10.
Those fifteen teams probably leave out very worthy schools that I either undervalued or skipped over. For instance, Ed Clark (led by NASAT lad scorer Eshaan Vakil) could make waves, as could Alex Donovan’s MICDS. Traditionally strong teams like Lexington, Dorman, Ladue, and St. John’s all have the depth to compete at a very high level, while teams like Homestead, Darien, and Davis could hold their ground despite significant departures. Fremd also deserves a mention, though their lack of nationals play makes them difficult to assess.
I hope you found these thoughts somewhat interesting or informative. If you think my rankings are out-of-whack, do share your own. I’m curious to see everyone’s perspective on the upcoming season.
Alright, here goes-
Frontrunner
Thomas Jefferson HSST (Alexandria, VA)
TJ spent all of last season comically underranked, partially because they entered the year with one fewer Ryan Golant then they had before. Though TJ entered nationals at #15 in the Pre-Nats poll and #21 in HSQBRank, they resoundingly asserted their top-tier quality, placing fourth at both HSNCT and PACE. Led by Rohan Hegde, TJ offered consistent, exceptionally well-rounded play and demonstrated a knack for winning close games, taking all eight games they played at PACE which were settled within a one question swing.
While other teams ended their seasons on similarly impressive notes, no other club returns as much talent as TJ. All five players who played on TJ A at HSNCT or PACE return next year, and they lose only one player from their excellent B team (a top 30 finisher at both nationals).
Think about it this way: In 2016, DCC B also placed top-5 at both nationals and returned their whole team. This past season, that DCC team came in a close second at HSNCT and went undefeated at PACE. TJ did even better at nationals than 2016 DCC B, and also returns everyone. Look out.
Championship Contenders (not ranked, in arbitrary order)
Dublin Scioto (Dublin, OH)
Amidst Jakob Myers’ individual dominance last season, it is easy to overlook just how much success Dublin Scioto’s Clark Smith enjoyed. Of particular note is Clark’s exceptional performance at PACE, during which his 132 ppg led Dublin to an impressive fifth-place finish with a near defeat of DCC along the way. Clark enters the 2017-2018 season as the best effectively-solo player in high school quizbowl, with a real shot to eclipse Jakob’s exploits from last year. His breadth and depth of knowledge give Dublin a credible chance at a national championship next spring.
Detroit Catholic Central (Novi, MI)
After a dominating season, DCC returns this year with an imposing, if not necessarily equivalent, roster. Only Robert Crawford remains from last year’s championship team, but he will be joined by rising members of DCC’s stellar B team. Though the Shamrocks don’t enter the season with the same aura of preeminence as last year, their personnel depth and unbeatable commitment cause them to rank among the best teams in the country. Given how often and successfully they compete, I would not be surprised to see DCC A hold the #1 pre-nationals spot in HSQBRank for the fourth year in a row.
Hunter (New York, NY)
The back-to-back HSNCT champs enter the 2017 season without Luke Tierney, the leading man for both of their national championships. But Luke represents Hunter A’s sole loss, as the rest of last season’s squad remains in place. Just as importantly, Hunter is poised to promote Daniel Ma, who led Hunter B to great finishes at both national tournaments. Daniel could well become equivalently skilled as Luke very soon, and if you acknowledge the shadow effect depressing the stats of Hunter A’s returning talent, a HSNCT three-peat does not seem unreasonable.
James E. Katy Taylor (Katy, TX)
William Golden continued his excellent high school career by leading Katy Taylor to a Texas Invitational win and a T-5 placing at HSNCT. If William can continue to improve as a player and maintain his stunningly low neg rate, Katy will easily be a top five team next year. The question of whether Katy can win a national title probably comes down to the team’s secondary scorers, most of whom return this season. If they grow enough to offer William top-flight support (think Luke Tierney and Hunter last season), then Katy could emerge as an HSNCT favorite.
Liberal Arts and Sciences Academy (Austin, TX)
Last year represented a rebuilding year for LASA, who finished outside the top-5 at HSNCT for the first time since 2009. But LASA will enter this season in strength, combining Graham Stockton, arguably their best player last season, with members of a stacked B team, the highest ranked second team at HSNCT. In particular, rising sophomore Chinmay Murthy appears ready to build off his exemplary rookie performance. If Chinmay becomes the all-world player he projects to be, LASA will become a tough team to beat.
Canyon Crest (San Diego, CA)
Like TJ, Canyon Crest returns all four members of an excellent 2016-2017 team. Though not nearly as dominant as TJ last year, Canyon Crest nonetheless posted a serious of impressive regular season wins (including the NAQT SoCal Championship) en route to a 13th place finish at PACE marked with wins over Dorman, LASA, and Naperville. Given another year of growth and a little more consistency, Canyon Crest could be an interesting dark horse championship candidate.
Probable Powerhouses (not ranked, in arbitrary order)
Lehigh Valley (Bethlehem, PA)
Alex Schmidt is at least high school quizbowl’s second best effectively-solo player and maintains a huge upside with top-5 potential.
Beavercreek (Beavercreek, OH)
After an okay showing at HSNCT, Beavercreek excelled at PACE. Hari Parameswaran with another year of growth is an intimidating notion.
Arcadia (Arcadia, CA)
Arcadia returns much of a solid 2016-2017 team, including lead scorers Matt Forster and Andrew Hoagland. With some growth and luck, Arcadia could challenge Canyon Crest for the Southern California title.
Chattahoochee (Johns Creek, GA)
Only Kevin Huang returns from last year’s excellent team, but the omnipresent depth of Chattahoochee’s program gives them a chance at equaling last year’s success.
Montgomery Blair (Silver Spring, MD)
Yes, I’m ranking my own team here, but not without due cause. Blair returns all but one player from a team which placed 15th HSNCT, and we have a deep bench of rising talent from last year’s solid B team. Hopefully we can give TJ a run for their money in the DC metro.
Adlai Stevenson (Lincolnshire, IL)
Stevenson loses Ali Saeed and much of their high-caliber team from last year, but rising sophomore Govind Prabhakar could easily grow into an all-world player.
Rockford Auburn (Rockford, IL)
Ethan Strombeck was very impressive at PACE and NASAT last season, and with some development, Rockford Auburn could compete with Stevenson (and Fremd) for best team in Illinois.
Richard Montgomery (Rockville, MD)
After comically terrible luck during the HSNCT playoffs, Richard Montgomery rebounded with a strong showing at PACE. All of RM’s PACE team returns next year, and given their science and history depth, they could break into the top 10.
Those fifteen teams probably leave out very worthy schools that I either undervalued or skipped over. For instance, Ed Clark (led by NASAT lad scorer Eshaan Vakil) could make waves, as could Alex Donovan’s MICDS. Traditionally strong teams like Lexington, Dorman, Ladue, and St. John’s all have the depth to compete at a very high level, while teams like Homestead, Darien, and Davis could hold their ground despite significant departures. Fremd also deserves a mention, though their lack of nationals play makes them difficult to assess.
I hope you found these thoughts somewhat interesting or informative. If you think my rankings are out-of-whack, do share your own. I’m curious to see everyone’s perspective on the upcoming season.