Michigan 06-07'

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Michigan 06-07'

Post by killbill_07 » Mon Feb 26, 2007 7:22 pm

So what are all your predictions regarding the state/national performances of Quiz Bowl teams in the good ol' Wolverine state?

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Re: Michigan 06-07'

Post by Byko » Mon Feb 26, 2007 8:06 pm

killbill_07 wrote:So what are all your predictions regarding the state/national performances of Quiz Bowl teams in the good ol' Wolverine state?
Well, it looks like it's mainly DCC and Troy bringing the noise from Michigan this year, I think. I know East Lansing was good last year, but I haven't seen them have as many opportunities to compete this season--anyone have more information that I don't know?

Outside of the top 3-4 teams, from an outsider's view, it looks like a down year for Michigan quiz bowl. Then again, I was at U. of M for the "glory days" of 2000-02 when DCC and Detroit Country Day battled for the NAQT title and tied for third at PACE in 2001, and both made strong runs in 2002: third and fourth and NAQT and 2nd and tied for third at PACE.
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Post by The Time Keeper » Tue Feb 27, 2007 4:33 am

As far as I can tell, Troy, East Lansing, and DCC are the only teams from Michigan likely to finish toward the top of either PACE or NAQT (although it looks like Troy isn't on the current NAQT field list, I'm assuming they'll go).

I don't see any of them finishing in the top 4, but it's hard to tell because only DCC really travels around at all and East Lansing seems to like not showing up at tournaments despite having probably the best individual player in the state.

Stats from the DCC tournament this weekend might help clear things up a bit but right now I'll guess that those teams will finish in the top 20 at NAQT with Troy cracking the top 10. Kurtis from East Lansing and Kareem from Troy will be top 10 in individual scoring, with the former placing in the top 4. Novi may also do fairly well, but I'm not sure where they'll place.

Assuming those teams all show up to PACE, which they should since it's basically in their backyard, I expect similar results. I don't know how much DCC will improve between the last tournaments with posted stats and nationals, but I imagine they'll be pretty solid. Troy looks to be the best Michigan team there as well.

I've only personally seen East Lansing on a TV format with pretty easy questions, so I'm not sure exactly how well they'll do on PACE material. They've retained everyone from last year's NAQT team so they should be improved. Judging from NAQT stats and the televised stuff (Which consists partially of A-level NAQT questions), Kurtis seems to be a really good tossup player with decent support, but their finish and overall scoring at NAQT last year make me question both how deep they are on bonus questions and how well they play against good/great teams. I know Kurtis comes back next year but I think the rest of EL's starters graduate. Hopefully he either improves enough to completely dominate next year or he rounds up enough new support to avoid being Kevin Roth reincarnated.

I have to agree with Byko that Michigan has been on a bit of a downward slope since 2001 when half of the top 8 at NAQT consisted of Michigan teams. I don't think the top three or four this year would match up too well against the DCC and DCD teams from back then, and it seems that the current 5th-8th best teams in Michigan (whoever they may be) aren't as good or at least competitive as similarly ranked teams a few years ago. Once you get past Troy, DCC, East Lansing, and Novi, it looks like there's a significant drop off in skill. Some of that might just be that there's not as much communication/discussion about MI qb as there used to be, but it seems teams are traveling even less than they used to and there may even be fewer tournaments going on than before. Hopefully this is just a cyclical thing.

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Post by porcupine » Wed Feb 28, 2007 9:18 am

I agree that outside of Troy, DCC, Novi, and East Lansing (my team) the state this year is not so good. We have competed only locally so far this year, so we haven't really seen much of the other good teams. I wasn't at the DCC tournament (neither was our 2nd best player), so there we only took 4th, losing to Hartland in what was apparently a bad game. Anyway, we're going to Wayne State and the state championship, hoping to do better than at Rube, where we lost a really close match to Novi in which every tossup in the first half was powered. Personally, I think that Troy has a good chance in finishing top five in the nation. As for DCC, they split their team at the Rube, so we beat the same half of their varsity twice. States will be very interesting to see who wins, as its by no means a foregone conclusion.

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Post by candy_cane03 » Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:10 am

In the DCC tournament, Troy came in 1st, Novi came in 2nd, Hartland came in 3rd, and East Lansing came in 4th. Troy only beat Novi by 20 points in the championship match (220-200) in an exciting final game.

In contrary to what others have said, I am quite positive that Troy, Novi, East Lansing, DCC, and perhaps even Grosse Poine North will place in the top 20 at the NAQT national tournament. This is NOT a weak year for Michigan at all with regards to the top teams. Howver, I do agree with the others above that besides these 5 teams, there is a real slide in skill level and the rest of the Michigan QB field isn't very competitive generally.

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Post by DumbJaques » Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:25 am

Uhm, just to let you know, I'm pretty sure no state had more than 3 teams in the top 20 last year. Your claim is pretty unlikely my opinion, no matter how good you might think the teams are based upon who you've encountered this year. One state making up 30% of the top 20 teams is kind of doubtful to happen, and if like 10 other people are saying it's an off year for said state, even more so. Not to hate on MI or anything, but I don't see that happening.

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Post by Captain Sinico » Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:46 am

But he's quite positive, Chris Ray! What are you?!

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Post by The Time Keeper » Thu Mar 01, 2007 4:48 am

ImmaculateDeception wrote:But he's quite positive, Chris Ray! What are you?!

MaS
Why he's Chris Ray, of course!

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Post by DumbJaques » Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:33 pm

In addition to being quite positive, I'm also hoping that he isn't a he, as I find a guy who joins hsqb and picks the name "candy cane" to be a little offsetting. Call me old fashioned.

Also, the fact that I'm me inherently makes any argument I make inferior, because I'm a dumbass, and also because I do most of my posting after midnight. A notice to this effect should be placed under the site rules and announcements section, lest any newcomers mistakenly think I'm credible.

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Post by candy_cane03 » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:21 pm

Well, be prepared for a rude awakening then Chris Ray and MaS. The traditional East Coast domination of Quiz Bowl will be ending this year with RM, State College, adn TJ all having lost their all-stars in the previous years.

Michigan's top 5 teams are on par with the top teams in any other state as you will all soon find out come Memorial Day Weekend.

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Post by vcuEvan » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:24 pm

State College and TJ are probably just as good as they were last year, RM is weaker but still strong, Gonzaga is stronger, Maggie Walker graduated only one. If you want to count Dorman as East Coast they're truly strong. Stuyvesant, Wilmington Charter, and Raleigh Charter are all good. I think this might be an up year for the East Coast.

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:42 pm

Huh? Michigan link with them?
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Post by Matt Weiner » Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:52 pm

candy_cane03 wrote:Michigan's top 5 teams are on par with the top teams in any other state as you will all soon find out come Memorial Day Weekend.
I have no trouble believing that Michigan's top 5 teams are as good as the top 5 in any state. But given that there are ten or more states who send 5+ teams to the HSNCT, the math doesn't support the movement from "top 5 just as good" to "top 5 in the top 20 of the field." The top 20 is going to be made up of the best and second-best teams from each state, Michigan included.

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Post by Captain Sinico » Fri Mar 02, 2007 12:19 am

I reiterate: he's quite certain. All all the rest of you east-coast losers have are your facts and reasoning. Where is your certitude?!

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Post by emactruman » Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:11 am

Michigan's top 10 is decent, but outside of Troy none are really top 16 in the nation. DCC and East Lansing are fringe top 25 teams depending on format and question set. From there, the is a slew of teams that might fit around 30-60, like Novi, DCC B, Country Day, and White Cloud.

Michigan really has not been the same since '02 and maybe '03.

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Post by porcupine » Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:53 am

I think that DCC, Troy, East Lansing, and Novi will all finish in the top 20; both Troy and East Lansing did it last year in the prelims and they kept all of their important players. Considering Novi and DCC to be on par or better than East Lansing, they all look to be fairly strong at nationals.

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:17 am

AGGh, if that's the case then I bet about 40 teams will make the top 20.

Get the point that it would be really unlikely to get 4 teams in the top 20 into your heads.
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Post by porcupine » Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:35 am

We'll see come nationals, but I've seen all of those four teams play and the level of competition at nationals last year. It definitely isn't outside the realm of possibility.

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Post by The Time Keeper » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:31 am

Looking through the prelim stats from the last two years, after the top 10 in 2006 and top 12 in 2005 there's a huge mass of teams with a similar, and not very good compared to the top teams, PP20TH. The final placement of these teams is done by a double-elimination playoff set, which is understandable due to time constraints and lack of packets, but is probably not the best way to specifically rank the middle of the pack among the better teams at the tournament. So while I guess it is possible that four Michigan teams could place inside the top 20 when everything is done, I'm not sure that's really a big deal in the first place, not to take anything away from the teams that finish there. I still think Troy is the only team with a shot of placing, say, in the top 6, provided most of this year's best teams show up to NAQT.

I'd be glad to be proven wrong though. I'd like to see a Michigan team win a national again and have a couple more come close to doing so as well.

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Post by candy_cane03 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:36 pm

emactruman wrote:Michigan's top 10 is decent, but outside of Troy none are really top 16 in the nation. DCC and East Lansing are fringe top 25 teams depending on format and question set. From there, the is a slew of teams that might fit around 30-60, like Novi, DCC B, Country Day, and White Cloud.

Michigan really has not been the same since '02 and maybe '03.
I'm not too sure of DCC anymore since they split into two equal-caliber varsity teams but you're almost making a mockey of EL and Novi when you say that EL might be "fringe" top 25 and Novi may "fit" in the top 30-60 range. From what I have seen, EL and Novi are almost on par with Troy and based on the results of Nationals from last year, will probably both be at least in the top 15 respectively.

BTW, comparing Novi to the likes of "Country Day and White Cloud" is basically an abomination and shows a complete lack of knowledge of the Michigan QB scene this year. Based on results of previous tournaments, Novi has beaten both of these teams by 300-500 points.

Oh yeah, ummm what was that team that went first place in Nationals Prelims last year (going 9-1) and beat the likes of Dupont Manual, Richard Montgomery, and Maggie Walker? Oh yeah GROSSE POINTE NORTH!!! Forgot about them already? Their varsity team is just as good this year as they were last year despite graduating their top 3 players.
Last edited by candy_cane03 on Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by vcuEvan » Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:56 pm

Grosse Point North was definately good, they did beat us and Richard Montgomery. However, they lost to Lafayette, Bentley, and Brookwood, who all went 6-4 the first day.

I do think Michigan is strong this year, much stronger than last year, and I look forward to playing them at Nationals.

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Post by The Time Keeper » Fri Mar 02, 2007 3:04 pm

candy_cane03 wrote: BTW, comparing Novi to the likes of "Country Day and White Cloud" is basically an abomination and shows a complete lack of knowledge of the Michigan QB scene this year.
This I can buy. There's a huge difference between Novi and these two teams from what I've seen this year.
From what I have seen, EL and Novi are almost on par with Troy and based on the results of Nationals from last year, will probably both be at least in the top 15 respectively.
If Autumn Classic results are any indication, and what better example to use to illustrate a point about NAQT than one that used NAQT questions, Troy comes off as considerably better than Novi and likely the absent East Lansing. Troy's 430 PPG and perhaps more importantly 22 PPB is a whole lot more impressive than Novi's 340 PPG and 17.6 PPB.

In any case, trying to squeeze three Michigan teams into at least the top 15 just demonstrates a lack of awareness toward results from other parts of the country. If Troy, Novi, and East Lansing do finish in the top 15 I'll be surprised, but if it's in a way where they finish 4th, 14th, and 15th respectively I'll stand by my claims of Michigan not being as great as you seem to think it is.

I'll take another look at everything once NAQT states is played and we have results from that, as well as detailed results from the other state tournaments around the country but until then, I'm standing by what I say as being fairly accurate. There's definitely no bias either, as I'd love to see Michigan teams take the top three spots at both NAQT and PACE, I just don't see it happening.
Oh yeah, ummm what was that team that went first place in Nationals Prelims last year (going 9-1) and beat the likes of Dupont Manual, Richard Montgomery, and Maggie Walker? Oh yeah GROSSE POINTE NORTH!!! Forgot about them already? Their varsity team is just as good this year as they were last year despite graduating their top 3 players.
No offense to Grosse Pointe North intended, but despite impressive close wins in those prelim games they're also the team that went 2-2 in the playoffs and went out tied for 16th when everything was done.
Let it be known that all Michigan skeptics will be silenced this Memorial Weekend.
Oh, okay.

Edit: While looking for results from other tournaments that also used IS-62, I came across a tournament held in Tulsa, Oklahoma that featured no fewer than five teams that put up better bonus conversion than Novi, including of course North Kansas City starring this board's own Mueller-slaying Charles Dees which put up nearly 600 PPG with 25 PPB. Now, I'm not saying all these teams will be at NAQT nationals, but if one state plus one out of state team can produce 4 or 5 teams that put up equal stats to non-Troy MI teams (and one that far exceeds them all), how likely do you think it is that a national tournament is going to feature 3 or 4 teams from one state in the top 15, particularly when only one of them has displayed excellent results?

Northwestern's fall tournament used this set and the two best teams there put up stats under Troy's but better than the rest of the MI field's.

UC-Irvine had a tournament on this set and Santa Monica put up stats close to those of Troy with two other teams matching or exceeding Michigan's next best teams.

IS-62 was also used at a tournament at UGA in December. That tournament featured five teams from South Carolina and Georgia with stats comparable to or better than Novi's, including two B-teams. Apparently Princeton also recently held a tournament on these but stats aren't up yet. They should give a better idea about Gonzaga, State College, and the better NY teams who showed, particularly Stuyvesant.

I haven't even gotten into the Mid-Atlantic, most of which has yet to play these unless they traveled to do so. I hear the Mid-Atlantic has been putting up some excellent teams lately, confirm/deny? Off the top of my head, you have TJ A, Gonzaga, Gov A, Raleigh Charter, State College (not really M-A, but I have to put them somewhere), RM, which is apparently solid post-Chris Ray, and probably a handful of other teams I've forgotten.

Also, you have to consider Kentucky's top teams. I'm not sure who the best NAQT teams there are this year but their best team or two are typically solid at nationals. Tennessee also has a couple good teams each year and I've heard MLK is solid. And there's always the "out of nowhere" teams like Lakeside in 2005 and this year's Eden Prarie. Who knows who else may fit into this category this year? The other top MN teams may make a splash and Shady Side from PA will probably do quite well again this year.

I'm not saying one IS set is clear proof of how good teams are, but I think it's pretty damn obvious that other than Troy, no Michigan teams are among the very very best in the country or at the very least aren't demonstrably better than the best teams from any state at all. The chance of Michigan putting up three or four teams in the top 15 is wholly dependent on which other teams decide to not show up at nationals.

I'm sure they'll all do well in the prelims, but when you have a 120 team tournament you're going to have 60 pushovers, 30 bad teams, 20 pretty good teams, and 10 teams which are clearly better than everyone else. The problem is that even swiss-pairing isn't going to make a fantastic distinction about who belongs where with only 10 prelim games being played. After all, the best team after the prelims last year didn't break into the top 15 come playoff time.

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Post by DumbJaques » Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:11 pm

Gee, you don't happen to play for a team in Michigan, do you?

Using terms like "abomination" and "mockery" in this kind of a discussion is ridiculous. Nobody is being abominable, at least no more so than usual. If you're so sure that East Lansing and Novi and Gross Pointe North and DCC and Troy are somehow going to romp over all the "east coast" teams, lets see some numbers. Link me to tournament stats, don't just reference "300-500" point victories that may or may not even have been in pyramidal format. Show me how these 5 Michigan teams faired against weaker competition than the general east coast has (as you admitted, there's a drop off in the field after the top few teams), and then you can look at the numbers Gov, SC, RM, Zaga, TJ, and Dorman put up and try to make your point. Stop being so melodramatic about what was a reasonable discussion about the MI field.

Also, your assertion that the East Coast has "lost its stars" is entirely baseless. TJ seems better this year, Gov retained most of their lineup including their top 2 scorers, Zaga didn't lose anyone of note at all, State College retained their top 2 scorers and moved up solid people, and Dorman is clearly a much, much better team than last year. RM is the only team in that entire category, I think, who lost one top scorer let alone two. And clearly they're playing pretty well this year, particularly on the NAQT format, as all of those teams will attest to. Who are you even referring to here?

Pretty much all you've said so far is "Troy is good" and "Novi is almost as good as Troy" and used last year's standings in the NAQT prelims to somehow take that and turn it into a ludicrous prediction about the top 15. Note that I'm not calling it ludicrous because I hate Michigan, or even because I'm analyzing its accuracy, but because you made it without using any real argument or evidence. As for GPN, your argument was "they lost their 3 best people, but of course they're just as good." Please understand that I'm not giving you a hard time because I hate your state or your team, but rather because I hate baseless arguments about how awesome someone's team/region is. Also, if you do in fact play for one of those teams, it isn't exactly considered good form to use your first 3 posts to boast about how awesome you are, and how awesome everyone else who came close to beating/actually beat you is because they have to be that great to be in your class.

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Post by The Time Keeper » Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:26 pm

DumbJaques wrote:Gee, you don't happen to play for a team in Michigan, do you?
According to the brilliant detective skills with which I exposed Basileus back in the day, this person plays for Novi and was their #7 contributor at NAQT nationals last year.

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Post by DumbJaques » Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:40 pm

Pat, I think it's finally time to admit that you're really McGruff, the Crime Dog. It would explain why you obviously have no knowledge of the teams in Michigan and also why you were driving this at MLK.

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:41 pm

While looking for results from other tournaments that also used IS-62, I came across a tournament held in Tulsa, Oklahoma that featured no fewer than five teams that put up better bonus conversion than Novi, including of course North Kansas City starring this board's own Mueller-slaying Charles Dees which put up nearly 600 PPG with 25 PPB.
Unfortunately, at the last minute the Tulsa tournament changed to IS-65A. So those stats arre probably pretty inflated for us.
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Post by The Time Keeper » Fri Mar 02, 2007 4:46 pm

charlieDfromNKC wrote:
While looking for results from other tournaments that also used IS-62, I came across a tournament held in Tulsa, Oklahoma that featured no fewer than five teams that put up better bonus conversion than Novi, including of course North Kansas City starring this board's own Mueller-slaying Charles Dees which put up nearly 600 PPG with 25 PPB.
Unfortunately, at the last minute the Tulsa tournament changed to IS-65A. So those stats arre probably pretty inflated for us.
That would explain quite a bit, but I stand by considering NKC demonstrably better than most MI teams and the good OK teams being close to equal as well.
DumbJaques wrote:Pat, I think it's finally time to admit that you're really McGruff, the Crime Dog. It would explain why you obviously have no knowledge of the teams in Michigan and also why you were driving this at MLK.

I'm kind of like McGruff, except I take bites out of horrible posts wherein the writer inflates the accomplishments of his region without knowing much about the rest of the country. Also, McGruff is better at quizbowl than I am.

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:03 pm

That would explain quite a bit, but I stand by considering NKC demonstrably better than most MI teams and the good OK teams being close to equal as well.
I'm not sure. I think Oklahoma is having a somewhat off year, based on what I saw there (the only team that came close to beating us was Edmond Homeschool, and the game was really low scoring, with a lot of unanswered/unanswerable tossups). Also, Edmond Memorial, the finalist, went to Vanderbilt and lost in the pools to Walton C (!) 180-250 and Dorman B 270-460, and lost in the 1st playoff game to Russel A. That shows me that the top of the heap in OK might not really compare to the semi-upper tier in the country. I would bet the Michigan teams could beat the Okla. teams, but still the gist of what you say is accurate about keeping it in perspective. And not being so annoying.
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Post by cdbarker » Fri Mar 02, 2007 5:44 pm

I think that Matt's basic assertion is correct. If NAQT draws the top teams from a number of states as it has in the past, it's a bit silly (or at the very least provincial) to think that Michigan can place four or five teams in the top 20. Not because Michigan doesn't have good teams (Novi has been discussed and I've seen them enough to know they're the real deal, (their InterCounty League Final matches this Wednesday against an undefeated Country Day I think will be a real test for both teams), Troy, DCC, and even a somewhat underrated Livonia Churchill and others I have not seen as much), but because the level of play around the country is so high, it's just not a likely outcome.

I think that while Michigan's top teams are not as dominant as they may have been in years' past, but I also think that speaks to the relative upgrade in quality across the country, to cyclical down-trending as our friend Dolemite had suggested, and other factors perhaps being overlooked. But, a positive I do see is that I see there are seemingly more schools than ever playing, and even if they are not competing at the national level, the growth, or at the least, sustaining program numbers in the Metro Detroit area, has been a positive for the game overall.

(edited to add: Speaking only as a Michigan coach/league coordinator...)

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Post by The Time Keeper » Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:03 pm

It's good to hear that Michigan qb in general is becoming more active than it has been recently. With the announcement of a couple tournaments happening at Wayne State this year as well as a couple other events, it looks like there are fewer tournament-less weekends in MI than there have been in the last couple years. Even this thread, despite a few extreme claims being made in it, shows that at the very least that Michigan people are still interested in quizbowl.

I'm just hoping that the generally accepted increase in team quality over last year is a result of programs being established at various schools as opposed to fluctuations caused by a few individuals that will end when they graduate (see Eisenhower post-Roth, Plymouth post-Heller/Lafer, Churchill post-Ardanowski, Okemos post-Wang/Garnett, and DCD post-Meyvis/Francis/Wilson/Svenson). With Novi's fairly young and pretty balanced team (going off of last year's NAQT info) and good B/JV team from what I've read on here, it might be that they have a solid consistent program in the making, which would be good to see, especially from a school that didn't really do anything in years past that I can recall.

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Post by cdbarker » Fri Mar 02, 2007 8:48 pm

Dolemite wrote:With Novi's fairly young and pretty balanced team (going off of last year's NAQT info) and good B/JV team from what I've read on here, it might be that they have a solid consistent program in the making, which would be good to see, especially from a school that didn't really do anything in years past that I can recall.
Novi's coach is Robert Baker, who was one of my high school teammates, and I think that is part of it. We're starting, at least this is what I am seeing, to get a generation of new teachers who grew up playing the game in the 1990s, maybe played at least a little in college, and now want to coach because they know the value that it provides. If I'm correct in this, I hope that can provide stability to replace the old guard who did an amazing job of making Michigan a very fertile quiz bowl place back in the day.

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Post by candy_cane03 » Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:39 pm

I apologize to whomever I may have offended but I don't think my arguments are "baseless". I'm just putting forth my own educated inference based on what I have seen at tournaments this year at MI and unless you've seen some of the teams that I have mentioned play firsthand, I don't think that you can really write them off with age-old statistics and skewed data compiled from tournaments scattered nationwide.

In addition, I don't believe I said that any of the 5 MI teams I mentioned would "roll" over the top East Coast teams, but rather that they would do very well at Nationals and at least 3-4 of them should break the top 15. Considering DCC was 4th, Troy was 8th, GPN was 16th, and East Lansing was 25th at Nationals last year in addition to the fact that all of these teams with the exception of DCC and perhaps GPN to an extent have not lost their top players and have improved, I don't think the idea of 3-4 MI teams being in the top 15 is so far-fetched.

It's ONE educated prediction, nothing more. I don't have to back it up, nor do I feel the need to since it's an opinion. Unlike Dolemite, I don't intend to reveal an individual's identity on the internet and then use it to launch an ad-hominem attack against him based on individual performances at the the NAQT national tournament last year.

This will be my last post on this thread as I'm clearly not qualified to talk about the Michigan QB scene. So, I look forward to seeing you folks at NAQT nationals this May and I wish everyone the best of luck. Good day to you all.

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Post by The Time Keeper » Fri Mar 02, 2007 9:51 pm

None of my revelation of your identity was meant as an insult, sorry if it seemed that way. The revelation itself was warranted as Chris "DumbJaques" Ray, and doubtlessly others, suspected that there may have been some bias in your projections and rightly wondered if you played for one of the teams mentioned.

As far as people disagreeing with you goes, everyone here disagrees with everyone all the time about everything and you shouldn't let it get to you. Debate is encouraged here and no one wants you go to by any means.
I apologize to whomever I may have offended but I don't think my arguments are "baseless". I'm just putting forth my own educated inference based on what I have seen at tournaments this year at MI and unless you've seen some of the teams that I have mentioned play firsthand, I don't think that you can really write them off with age-old statistics and skewed data compiled from tournaments scattered nationwide.
I personally feel that the data I cited which consists of games played on the same packet set (except for one error) across the country is probably a bit more telling than simply watching teams in one region play and making judgments based on that. No one is saying that Michigan's 2-4 teams are horrible, and few people would like to see Michigan teams do well as much as I would, but most of us just feel it might be a bit irrational to suggest one state will post 3 or 4 top 15 teams at an event consisting of teams from 20 or so states. If we accept that Michigan's top teams are as good as the top teams of most states, that still doesn't leave room for four top 15 teams.

And in the interest of clarity, it should be noted that technically GPN finished 16th-24th last year and East Lansing was 25th-36th.

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Post by DumbJaques » Fri Mar 02, 2007 10:07 pm

No one was offended by what you said, but while you do have the right to voice your opinion, we have the right to say that we disagree and that you're not backing yourself up with any meaningful evidence. This is not an insult, it's an observation. Nobody meant anything personal either. The "was 7th in scoring" was meant to identify you, I'm sure, not to imply that you suck and therefore are wrong. Particularly, just having been not in your team's top 4 last year is hardly an indicator that you suck this year. 90% of teams have people who weren't top 4 last year, including all the good ones. So stop taking things so personally, realize that we're using reason in our arguments, and please rejoin the discussion if you feel up to applying that same reasoning. It's not really fair to get upset at us for calling you out on faulty reasoning, anymore than it would be for us to say that you can't make a post in this thread because of your ppg (which nobody here has even come close to saying). For example: DCC was a one-man team last year who lost said man. The fact that they finished 4th last year is infinitely less significant than stats this year (which are hardly "skewed" or "age-old," and are in fact the opposite of those things) or stats put up last year by non-seniors. GPN, frankly, was not that great to begin with and lost its far and away top 3 people. Their finish last year is likewise not very significant. Troy, obviously, we're all expecting big things from. Again, if you want to make the argument that we should expect similar things from other teams, then back it up. If you tout an opinion as "educated," I would assume it's informed and backed by evidence. No, you don't "have to" back it up, but if you refuse to, don't be surprised if nobody agrees. What was your point of even posting here if you didn't want to discuss stuff on the discussion board?

Oh, and don't get so upset over your "identity" being revealed. People here are asked to introduce themselves, and nobody gave your contact info out or anything. In summation, chill out, re-read what we said, and be encouraged to rejoin the discussion rather than leaving in a huff for no reason.

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Post by Squirrelmob » Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:01 am

Hello. As a member of a Michigan QB team (East Lansing), I personally feel that the field in Michigan is fairly strong. Novi, when they are at their best (top 4 players) is a good team, with a solid knowledge base. I believe they are one of the top 3 teams (although, admittedly, I have seen no action from DCC so far this year) in the state, but this will likely not be proven until NAQT HSNCT time, because they will not be attending the Michigan NAQT States this year (according to their coach earlier today). That being said, without their top 2 players, Novi was nowhere near as well-rounded, nor as mighty. If they have their top 4, they'll be a contender at nationals, and possibly get top 15.

Troy has retained every player I recognize from last year's team which placed 8th at Nationals. Their captain is quite strong, easily the 2nd best player in the state (behind my own captain, of course. I may be a bit biased here, but I think most will agree with me). Their 2nd and 3rd players are also quite strong, and they have a vast pool of talent to draw on for the 4th spot. I expect Troy to return to the top 10 at Nationals this year, perhaps (dare I say) the top 5.

As for my home team, East Lansing, our captain is, in all likelihood, the best player in the state. After experimenting with our line-up, due to 3 roughly even players angling for 2 spots (with a 4th good player aiming for one of those spots as well), we had a stellar performance at the Inaugural Wayne State University tournament, defeating Troy in the finals in a well-fought and almost dominating game (a good question set, for sure.) However, I'd place us roughly even with Troy. If our minds are in the right place we can be dynamite. I will make no predictions toward this team, however, because I don't want to jinx anything with bad juju.
As for our B team, which also qualified for Nationals, they can probably get into day 2, but nothing is set in stone. However, with every player from last year (even benchwarmers) returning to ELQB this year, I find it quite possible that the state of Michigan can, conceivably, have 2 top contenders come late May.

Other teams that could make an impact are Grosse Point North, which I have not personally seen in action but was impressed by their record and stats at the WSUT, and Detroit Country Day, given the right conditions.

I look forward to the intense competition to be held at States, it will certainly be most exciting. Hope to see you all at Nationals, and until then good luck.

-The Mob.

P.S. Hi, I'm new to the forums.

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Post by Gonzagapuma1 » Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:25 am

I think the real problem is that I don't think a Michigan team has played outside their region yet. I'm sure these teams are pretty good but without a comparison it's hard to make a judgement.

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Post by Matt Weiner » Sun Mar 04, 2007 3:27 am

Gonzagapuma1 wrote:I think the real problem is that I don't think a Michigan team has played outside their region yet. I'm sure these teams are pretty good but without a comparison it's hard to make a judgement.
P/B on the same IS set is a good rough index.

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Post by The Time Keeper » Sun Mar 04, 2007 6:46 am

Matt Weiner wrote:
Gonzagapuma1 wrote:I think the real problem is that I don't think a Michigan team has played outside their region yet. I'm sure these teams are pretty good but without a comparison it's hard to make a judgement.
P/B on the same IS set is a good rough index.
The only problem is that there was a huge muddled middle when I checked through all of it. You could kind of tell who the best teams were but it stops being too useful after singling out the elite. Hopefully the NAQT state tournaments and PACE pre-national whatever you're calling it will give a bit more information.

It's good to hear about East Lansing beating Troy, just because it indicates Michigan may indeed have more than one national caliber team. If Novi has markedly improved since the last actual stats I saw, that's cool too.

To the East Lansing player: How do your top non-seniors (excepting Kurtis, obviously) look for next year? You guys seem capable of doing some good damage at nationals this year and if you reload your 2-4 support (or even improve it) and Kurtis keeps improving over the summer at a decent rate, it's possible you could win one or both nationals next year.

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Post by Squirrelmob » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:42 am

Well, I think our best shot could be this year, because I believe there will be a marked drop in depth. However, we do have a freshman who could have the capability to be a bomb if we hone him enough, and we have a junior who is quite good but needs to study up some. I don't know who the fourth will be next year, though, and I have no idea how good the depth will be. That being said, if the rest of the team (and Kurtis) can improve as much as they did over this summer, they could have a shot.

Personally, and this is biased, I think this year's team is really strong. My own opinion, though. However, we do lose our next 5 best players after Kurtis, along with 3 others, after this year.

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Post by porcupine » Mon Mar 05, 2007 4:01 pm

Statistically, as an East Lansing player, I calculated our bonus average to be 23.1 on IS 66; I would estimate Troy's to be roughly the same considering that we had exactly equal point totals after the round robin for the second time at a tournament this year.

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Post by hartland_qb » Mon Mar 05, 2007 8:32 pm

Hello, I am a member of the Hartland Quiz Bowl team and have been lurking on these forums for a while now but I can no longer resist the temptation of not posting because I want to correct what I believe are major inaccuracies regarding the perception of the level of Quiz Bowl competition here in Michigan on these boards.

After playing 4 years of QB in this state, I have never seen Michigan quite as strong as it is this year. Everybody in this thread who has said that Troy is in a league by itself in Michigan is FLAT OUT WRONG. There are literally 3-4 teams in MI that I think could beat Troy on any given day in any given tournament.

To prove my point, here are the results(top 4) of the last 5 major tournaments in Michigan:

UM DEARBORN FALL TORUNAMENT (November)
1. Detroit Catholic Central (DCC) A (beat Troy by over 100 points)
2. Troy
3. DCC B
4. Detroit Country Day (DCD)


UM ANN ARBOR AUTUMN CLASSIC (December)
1. Troy (Troy blew out DCC here by more than 200 points)
2. Detroit Catholic Central (DCC)
3. Novi A
4. Novi B

MSU RUBE INVITATIONAL (January)
1. Troy (not sure what the actual score was in the final match at all)
2. Novi
3. East Lansing
4. Detroit Country Day (DCD)

DCC ACADEMIC INVITATIONAL (February)
1. Troy (240-220)
2. Novi
3. Hartland
4. East Lansing (without Kurtis)

WAYNE STATE WARRIOR CLASSIC (March)
1. East Lansing (EL defeated Troy by a very wide margin here though I'm not aware of the actual score)
2. Troy
3. ???
4. ???

Just to put all of this in perspective, consider that Troy was 8th in the country last year at the NAQT HSNCT. Troy is a much better team this year and there are no less than 3-4 teams in MI (Novi, EL, DCC) that have already beaten Troy in a tournament this year or have come extremely close. Then, there's GPN, the #1 team in the country last year in NAQT HSNCT prelims, who I believe is an even better team this year then they were last year despite losing their far and away top 3 players.

I think to say that only 3 Michigan teams will be in the top 15 at NAQT nationals this year when it's all said and done may actually be an understatement. If any of you still doubt the depth of MI quiz bowl this year, then I think all your doubts will be cleared come late May.

Good luck to all of you and I hope to see guys at Nationals!!

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Post by Squirrelmob » Mon Mar 05, 2007 9:33 pm

Hartland's respectable as well.
I'd be very surprised if you guys don't get to day 2 at Nationals.

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Post by Lapego1 » Mon Mar 05, 2007 10:15 pm

porcupine wrote:Statistically, as an East Lansing player, I calculated our bonus average to be 23.1 on IS 66; I would estimate Troy's to be roughly the same considering that we had exactly equal point totals after the round robin for the second time at a tournament this year.
William and Mary's tournament in Virginia also used IS 66, so once Wayne State and W&M post stats, comparisons may be plausible.

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Post by emactruman » Mon Mar 05, 2007 11:53 pm

Results are posted, Also, I'll admit I slightly underestimated East Lansing. However, I still feel as no more than 3 Michigan schools are top 25 material.

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Post by porcupine » Tue Mar 06, 2007 9:13 am

Reading the posts from the William and Mary tournament, their bonus conversion seems to be in the mid-20s for the top teams as well, considering that Maggie Walker's 25 PPB in the playoff round was called spectacular compared to conversion in the prelims. The only team that I am unsure about is DCC, as I have never seen their varsity team play together. If they're as good as their reputation, though, then they should make top 20 at nationals and at least 3rd in states.

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Post by The Toad to Wigan Pier » Tue Mar 06, 2007 3:19 pm

porcupine wrote:Reading the posts from the William and Mary tournament, their bonus conversion seems to be in the mid-20s for the top teams as well, considering that Maggie Walker's 25 PPB in the playoff round was called spectacular compared to conversion in the prelims.
Maggie Walker's PPB in the prelim's was 25.6, nothing has been posted about our playoff PPB.

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Tue Mar 06, 2007 5:31 pm

Yeah, seriously. How can you people say Maggie Walker is a step down this year?
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Post by The Time Keeper » Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:47 am

hartland_qb wrote:Hello, I am a member of the Hartland Quiz Bowl team and have been lurking on these forums for a while now but I can no longer resist the temptation of not posting because I want to correct what I believe are major inaccuracies regarding the perception of the level of Quiz Bowl competition here in Michigan on these boards.

After playing 4 years of QB in this state, I have never seen Michigan quite as strong as it is this year. Everybody in this thread who has said that Troy is in a league by itself in Michigan is FLAT OUT WRONG. There are literally 3-4 teams in MI that I think could beat Troy on any given day in any given tournament.

Just to put all of this in perspective, consider that Troy was 8th in the country last year at the NAQT HSNCT. Troy is a much better team this year and there are no less than 3-4 teams in MI (Novi, EL, DCC) that have already beaten Troy in a tournament this year or have come extremely close. Then, there's GPN, the #1 team in the country last year in NAQT HSNCT prelims, who I believe is an even better team this year then they were last year despite losing their far and away top 3 players.

I think to say that only 3 Michigan teams will be in the top 15 at NAQT nationals this year when it's all said and done may actually be an understatement. If any of you still doubt the depth of MI quiz bowl this year, then I think all your doubts will be cleared come late May.

Good luck to all of you and I hope to see guys at Nationals!!
Cool to see some Hartland representation on the board. How does the team look for nationals and the future?

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Post by porcupine » Wed Mar 07, 2007 9:18 am

25.6 is very impressive; I must have misread the comment that was made. However, considering that Maggie Walker is one of the top 5 teams in the country this year, the difference is not so much that 23.1 wouldn't make top 20.

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Post by DumbJaques » Wed Mar 07, 2007 2:49 pm

25.6 is very impressive; I must have misread the comment that was made. However, considering that Maggie Walker is one of the top 5 teams in the country this year, the difference is not so much that 23.1 wouldn't make top 20
That's not necessarily true, for several reasons. First, bonus conversion is more of an exponential scale for measuring skill level. That is, 25.6 is a mark very, very few teams could achieve. On IS questions, 20 ppb should be the minimum for a solidly competitive team. Just because 5.7 isn't a very big number doesn't mean it doesn't represent a world of difference. A team that converts 26 ppb and a team that converts 23 are, in my opinion, in completely different classes (in terms of bonus conversion). Also, it is just bonus conversion. I hear that getting tossups is pretty important too. So while we use ppb on the same set as our only real standard of comparison, it's not accurate to treat that as any sort of complete measure. Third, IS sets are way, way different than nationals, both in distribution and in difficulty. Teams take major hits on the bonus conversions if you compare their numbers on NAQT IS throughout the year with their numbers at nationals. The degree to which teams resist this drop is hardly entirely indicated by the ppb they were originally putting up.

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