Michigan 06-07'

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Matt Weiner
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Post by Matt Weiner » Wed Mar 07, 2007 3:14 pm

DumbJaques wrote: Teams take major hits on the bonus conversions if you compare their numbers on NAQT IS throughout the year with their numbers at nationals. The degree to which teams resist this drop is hardly entirely indicated by the ppb they were originally putting up.
Is this really true? I would expect IS set conversion to correlate with HSNCT conversion pretty solidly, as a constant percentage drop for all teams. Do you have some numbers?

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DumbJaques
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Post by DumbJaques » Wed Mar 07, 2007 3:58 pm

Is this really true? I would expect IS set conversion to correlate with HSNCT conversion pretty solidly, as a constant percentage drop for all teams. Do you have some numbers?
The short answer is no, because that would involve going through all the tournaments I can find from teams for last year then doing a lot of math from the HSNCT scores since for whatever reason NAQT hates complete stats. My point was more along the lines of this:

IS is pretty easy. A solid team can 30 many a bonus on IS sets without substantial knowledge (for example, I remember an IS set from 2 years ago that was like Abelard (off of heloise) - Scholasticism (off of Thomas More) - France (off of "also home to philosophers Rousseau and Montesquieu or something like that). Now that's a 30 based off basic list memorization and incredibly cursory knowledge. A bonus from the 2005 HSNCT, I believe, went something like Abelard (off of obscure biographical details) - Heloise (off of Abelard) - Sic et Non. A team could easily 30 the first and 10 the second. My point is that recent IS sets, even in regards to bonus conversion, seem to offer a lot of reward for list-based, less in-depth knowledge. So a team that could average like 22 ppb based mostly on general knowledge could see a major drop in production at nationals, while a team that knows a lot of stuff really well could average 23 ppb and see a much less pronounced drop. IS sets don't test the kind of stuff nationals sets do.

This is just an opinion, it's not the result of statistical analysis. I just think opportunities for easy 20s or 30s at nationals is a lot lower than it is in IS, and teams that have the capacity to 30 a very difficult bonus on a topic aren't really given a chance to show that over teams that could only 30 an easier bonus on said topic in IS. And those are the teams that are going to be battling it out for the top spots.

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Post by porcupine » Thu Mar 08, 2007 8:54 am

I agree up to the point where you say that mediocre teams can average 22 or 23 ppb in IS. Admittedly there are many easy thirties, but the variety of topics in the questions asked requires if only list memorization in many different fields. I think that the difference between 25 or 26 ppb and 22 or 23 is the difference between top 5 in the nation and top 20.

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Post by RMuldrake » Fri Mar 30, 2007 1:06 am

"BTW, comparing Novi to the likes of "Country Day and White Cloud" is basically an abomination and shows a complete lack of knowledge of the Michigan QB scene this year. Based on results of previous tournaments, Novi has beaten both of these teams by 300-500 points." - candy_cane03

Novi has never beaten Country Day by 300-500 points this year; on the contrary, Country Day defeated Novi in the League finals this month.

Also, DCD finished 3rd, not 4th, at the U-of-M Fall Classic.

Much of this confusion should be sorted out in three weeks at the State Championships at MSU.

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Post by candy_cane03 » Sun Apr 01, 2007 2:10 am

"Country Day defeated Novi in the League finals this month."-RMuldrake

The League question sets, ESPECIALLY that last one, generally aren't good ways to measure where teams stand due to the low difficulty level of the questions and poor category distribution when compared to regular tournament IS/state IS/national HSNCT question sets. But hey, believe what you will.

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cdbarker
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Post by cdbarker » Sun Apr 01, 2007 2:13 am

candy_cane03 wrote:"Country Day defeated Novi in the League finals this month."-RMuldrake

The League question sets, ESPECIALLY that last one, generally aren't good ways to measure where teams stand due to the low difficulty level of the questions and poor category distribution when compared to regular tournament IS/state IS/national HSNCT question sets. But hey, believe what you will.
It's worth noting that the InterCounty League Varsity teams played on NAQT's IS-60 this season, so I don't completely follow what you meant by this statement. The ICL was essentially a tournament played out over five match days as opposed to one.

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Chico the Rainmaker
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Post by Chico the Rainmaker » Sun Apr 01, 2007 3:10 am

You know guys, as has been recently mentioned in another thread, there is a very handy quote button on the board.
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Lukey's Boat
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Two cents

Post by Lukey's Boat » Sun Apr 15, 2007 9:09 pm

Just to toss in my two cents, I think Michigan is pretty strong this year. Especially with team like DCC, Troy, Novi, and EL, at least a few are going to do quite well. I was also pleased to see the results of the pre-nationals poll ranked three Michigan teams quite respectably (14, 15, and 17, or something along those lines). :smile:

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Formerly of East Lansing H.S.

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ecks
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Post by ecks » Mon May 28, 2007 10:13 pm

candy_cane03 wrote:Well, be prepared for a rude awakening then Chris Ray and MaS. The traditional East Coast domination of Quiz Bowl will be ending this year with RM, State College, adn TJ all having lost their all-stars in the previous years.

Michigan's top 5 teams are on par with the top teams in any other state as you will all soon find out come Memorial Day Weekend.
Well, now that Memorial Day Weekend has come and gone, I thought you Michiganders might like to see how well your predictions panned out:

Top 10
VA - 2
SC - 2
MD - 2
MI - 2
PA - 1
CA - 1
DC - 1

Top 15
VA - 3
MD - 3
MI - 3
PA - 2
SC - 2
CA - 1
DC - 1
OH - 1
MO - 1
TN - 1
IL - 1

Top 50
VA - 6
IL - 5
MD - 5
MI - 4
GA - 4
MN - 4
PA - 4
SC - 4
CA - 4
KY - 3
NJ - 3
OH - 3
DC - 2
NY - 2
FL - 2
MO - 1
TN - 1
AL - 1
ON - 1
NC - 1

Sadly enough, Chris Ray was evidently NOT in for a rude awakening: Michigan certainly did pretty well, but it didn't topple the East Coast powerhouses that are Maryland and Virginia. Sorry, but there are going to have to be more good teams to be able to do that. No "abomination" here.
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BuzzerZen
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Post by BuzzerZen » Mon May 28, 2007 10:46 pm

Delaware, represented by Wilmington Charter, is missing from your list. They were among the three teams tied for 5th.
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Matthew D
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Post by Matthew D » Mon May 28, 2007 11:36 pm

Georgia only had 3 teams in the top 50
MI didn't have any in the top 10 I am looking at here but did have two in the top 15

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dtaylor4
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Post by dtaylor4 » Mon May 28, 2007 11:51 pm

Matt, try here.

Your link is to the standings after Saturday.

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Gonzagapuma1
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Post by Gonzagapuma1 » Mon May 28, 2007 11:51 pm

Edit: DaGeneral beat me to it.

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Matthew D
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Post by Matthew D » Tue May 29, 2007 12:21 am

Cool missed that one some how.. thanks

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The Time Keeper
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Post by The Time Keeper » Tue May 29, 2007 1:26 am

Dolemite wrote:As far as I can tell, Troy, East Lansing, and DCC are the only teams from Michigan likely to finish toward the top.
I'll guess that those teams will finish in the top 20 at NAQT with Troy cracking the top 10. Kurtis from East Lansing and Kareem from Troy will be top 10 in individual scoring, with the former placing in the top 4.
I came pretty close, I think.

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Lukey's Boat
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Post by Lukey's Boat » Tue May 29, 2007 4:43 pm

I'll guess that those teams will finish in the top 20 at NAQT with Troy cracking the top 10. Kurtis from East Lansing and Kareem from Troy will be top 10 in individual scoring, with the former placing in the top 4.
Kurtis got 5th, Kareem 12th. Nicely done on both counts.

All individual stats here: http://naqt.com/hsnct/2007/results/personal.html
Liz F.
Michigan Technological University
Formerly of East Lansing H.S.

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