2007 NAQT HSNCT Predictions

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2007 NAQT HSNCT Predictions

Post by Strongside » Sat May 05, 2007 5:01 pm

With the NAQT HSNCT three weeks away, I figured I would start a thread for people to discus teams and indivduals, who will do well, who will surprise, etcetera.
Last edited by Strongside on Sun May 06, 2007 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by First Chairman » Sat May 05, 2007 7:23 pm

Well, I have the Facebook group too...
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Post by Mitu » Sat May 05, 2007 10:30 pm

Based off of the statistics that have been posted, I would say that the polls are mostly accurate, with Maggie Walker at the head. As for who might be the biggest surprise, I think Eden Prairie has a chance to go far, but they have not played against any of the "traditional" powers. As for who has a chance to do moderately well from Minnesota, I would argue that the four best in the state are Eden Prairie, Wayzata, St. Thomas, and DeLasalle.
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Post by quizbowllee » Mon May 14, 2007 3:17 pm

By looking at the field, I'd have to say this is likely the strongest field of any quiz bowl tournament ever. I don't just mean that because of the number of teams, but also the quality of teams.

If no one noticed, every single one of the teams on the National Top-25 poll are attending. Not only that, but almost all of the "also receiving votes" teams are also attending.

Naturally, there will be some fodder at the HSNCT, but overall this is going to be an epic tournament.

I think it's really anyone's game. If the first "also receiving votes" team, Walt Whitman (who I suppose would be ranked #26) can knock off the #1 team, Maggie Walker, at a recent tournament, then I have to say that perhaps any team in the top 25 has a shot at the title this year.

It's going to be fun.

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Mon May 14, 2007 3:26 pm

Well, Maggie Walker was missing a regular A-team player. But still, I agree with Lee.
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Post by quizbowllee » Mon May 14, 2007 3:29 pm

charlieDfromNKC wrote:Well, Maggie Walker was missing a regular A-team player. But still, I agree with Lee.
I didn't know that. Who was missing?

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Mon May 14, 2007 3:31 pm

I think Mark Guerci.
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Post by Gonzagapuma1 » Mon May 14, 2007 5:15 pm

yea it was marc.

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Post by jrbarry » Mon May 14, 2007 7:40 pm

Georgia-South Carolina will be sending a strong contingent of teams with Dorman, James Island, and Aiken from SC and Chattahoochee, Central Gwinnett, Norcross, Parkview, Grayson, and Brookwood from Georgia.

I wonder if there is any other single school system that will have 5 schools represented at Nationals? Gwinnett County, GA will have five different school here this year. (All GA teams are from Gwinnett except Chattahoochee!)

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Post by vcuEvan » Mon May 14, 2007 8:03 pm

jrbarry wrote:I wonder if there is any other single school system that will have 5 schools represented at Nationals? Gwinnett County, GA will have five different school here this year. (All GA teams are from Gwinnett except Chattahoochee!)
Not sure if they do this year but Montgomery county in Maryland often sends a big contingent.

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Post by bigtrain » Mon May 14, 2007 10:59 pm

iambusyeating wrote:
jrbarry wrote:I wonder if there is any other single school system that will have 5 schools represented at Nationals? Gwinnett County, GA will have five different school here this year. (All GA teams are from Gwinnett except Chattahoochee!)
Not sure if they do this year but Montgomery county in Maryland often sends a big contingent.
I believe Montgomery County sent 5 teams before, but not this year. This year Whitman, RM (X2) and Walter Johnson are going to PACE and/or NAQT Nationals for a grand total of only 4. The other 4 teams going to nationals from Maryland are from other jurisdictions. This is probably record attendance for Maryland's non-Montgomery County teams. Last year's National Championship winning Team Maryland only included players from Montgomery County (not due to exclusion of other jurisdictions, simply because the 6 best were from here). Of course, many if not most players from DC's Gonzaga, Georgetown Day School, Maret, and Sidwell Friends are from Montgomery County.

Other notable Montgomery County teams that have attended national tournaments and performed well include Blair, Blake, Rockville, Sidwell Friends (which has a campus in Montgomery County and D.C.) and to a lesser extent Churchill.
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Post by First Chairman » Tue May 15, 2007 7:24 am

Doesn't the entire state of Minnesota count? :)
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Post by killbill_07 » Tue May 15, 2007 10:04 am

Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?

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Post by quizbowllee » Tue May 15, 2007 10:07 am

killbill_07 wrote:Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
I think that there have been slightly bigger tournaments at Brookwood. But, probably not of this caliber.

I haven't seen Eden Prairie, and they may be great, but they are not even CLOSE to TJ 2005. I promise.

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Post by Byko » Tue May 15, 2007 10:20 am

killbill_07 wrote:Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
They'll probably be able to get 60 playoff teams with records of 6-4 or better out of a 160 team field. But I'm pretty sure that Brookwood High School has, at some point in its history, had more than 160 teams. I don't have any of my old copies of Brookwood tournament programs in front of me, though, so either Rick would have to answer this one or it'll have to wait until I get home tonight.

I haven't seen anyone from Minnesota play this year, so I'm very interested to see what happens.

Sometime next week, I'll post my predicted 60 playoff teams based on some of my quantitative ratings with some qualitative thought thrown in. I'm not going to make any attempt to seed the 60, though. At this tournament, that's very much a crapshoot.
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Post by Matt Weiner » Tue May 15, 2007 11:51 am

killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?

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Post by Byko » Tue May 15, 2007 12:18 pm

Matt Weiner wrote:
killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?
As far as I know, they've lost twice:

10/28/2006 (@ St. Olaf): Lost 315-215 to Orono A in the semifinals
12/9/2006 (@ Minnesota): Lost 285-245 to Minnetonka A in the quarterfinals

I don't have details on who they defeated or how many games they won at NAQT Minnesota, but I have them at 56-2 on the season.
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Post by STPickrell » Tue May 15, 2007 12:49 pm

Matt Weiner wrote:
killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?
Who have they played outside of MN?

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Post by Byko » Tue May 15, 2007 1:23 pm

StPickrell wrote:
Matt Weiner wrote:
killbill_07 wrote:Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
Eden Prairie has lost some games this year, haven't they?
Who have they played outside of MN?
To my knowledge, here's who they've played outside of Minnesota:

Hudson B (Hudson, WI) (3-10 on season): W 510-45
Regis B (Eau Claire, WI) (1-5): W 505-45
Hudson A (Hudson, WI) (2-12): W 525-(-5)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School A (Sioux Falls, SD) (25-9): W 525-110

That's it as far as I know.
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Post by Mitu » Tue May 15, 2007 1:55 pm

Byko wrote: I don't have details on who they defeated or how many games they won at NAQT Minnesota, but I have them at 56-2 on the season.
They were undefeated at the NAQT State tournament in the prelims and won the tournament. In the MNHSQB League play, they were undefeated as well.
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Post by evilmonkey » Tue May 15, 2007 2:46 pm

I think that New Trier (and other Illinois teams) will do very well. I never really considered them a top-tier team until last week, when I personally got destroyed by them and saw them beat DCC quite easily. Since New Trier claims to not be the best in Illinois (having gone 0-3 against Bloomington this year), I think we could see a few Illinois teams in the top twenty.

For me... I'm hoping that Culver makes the playoffs. If we do that, I'll be happy.

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Post by quizbowllee » Tue May 15, 2007 3:15 pm

Byko wrote: To my knowledge, here's who they've played outside of Minnesota:

Hudson B (Hudson, WI) (3-10 on season): W 510-45
Regis B (Eau Claire, WI) (1-5): W 505-45
Hudson A (Hudson, WI) (2-12): W 525-(-5)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School A (Sioux Falls, SD) (25-9): W 525-110

That's it as far as I know.
Ok... They beat the crap out of those teams. But, it doesn't look like those teams were exactly powerhouses. TJ A 2005 beat the best teams in the country that bad.

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Post by Matt Weiner » Tue May 15, 2007 3:47 pm

quizbowllee wrote:Ok... They beat the crap out of those teams. But, it doesn't look like those teams were exactly powerhouses. TJ A 2005 beat the best teams in the country that bad.
I tried to draw a comparison but the data is kind of scanty; as best I can tell, Eden Prairie has only played in one tournament on regular NAQT questions this year that posted stats, as the Minnesota state championship hasn't put up stats yet.

In the Gopher Invitational, Eden Prairie had a BC of 23.88 and a powers per tossup heard of 0.25, and lost to Minnetonka in the quarterfinals.

In the NAQT Virginia championship from 2005, TJ had a BC of 25.54, a powers per tossup head of 0.20. While the link does not contain playoff scores, I read the final game at this tournament and can tell you that TJ beat the #2 team in the state tournament, Princess Anne, by a score of 700 to 105.

So, Eden Prairie has better powers, TJ had better BC, but TJ completely blew away even the other top-tier teams while Eden Prairie has dropped two games this year.

Once nationals are over there will be some better data to compare between TJ and whoever wins, but no matter who it ends up being, they have already been eliminated from contending from TJ's record of marching completely undefeated through every tossup-bonus format tournament that they sent their full A team to, including both NAQT and PACE nationals.

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Post by aestheteboy » Tue May 15, 2007 4:34 pm

Matt Weiner wrote: So, Eden Prairie has better powers, TJ had better BC, but TJ completely blew away even the other top-tier teams while Eden Prairie has dropped two games this year.
Also, I would imagine that the set TJ played was much more difficult, at least in terms of powers.

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Post by Frater Taciturnus » Tue May 15, 2007 5:16 pm

As to the fact that Whitman beat handicapped Gov A, even our A team (Freeman) was able to beat a Mark-less Gov A (@ Ocean Lakes). Not to say Whitman is bad.

As to the strength of the field, having "played" (read 'beat to death with my own skull by') against many of the top teams, i definately think this is the DEEPEST tourney ever.

As to Eden Prairie, I think the only way to compare would be DCC's coach, if they've played them.
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Post by jrbarry » Tue May 15, 2007 5:35 pm

Brookwood Invitational Scholars Bowl had 168 teams competing one year back in the 1990s. Since 9-11, we've ranged from 120 to 140 teams in the BISB.

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Post by Megalomaniacal Panda on Absinthe » Tue May 15, 2007 5:56 pm

dsfcaptains2005 wrote:As to the fact that Whitman beat handicapped Gov A, even our A team (Freeman) was able to beat a Mark-less Gov A (@ Ocean Lakes). Not to say Whitman is bad.
To be fair, we beat Gonzaga by a pretty large margin at the same tournament (and yes, Ted was most certainly there). And the UMD tournament had a considerably more academic distribution, so it's not like we won because of speed or memorizing stock clues. In relation to the poll, it's not like Maggie Walker is the first upset we've pulled - we've beaten Chattahoochee and TJ A, as well. I wouldn't argue that we're better than those teams at all , particularly with the round to round vagaries and indecipherable distribution of NAQT packets, but I think we're in general better than we're given credit for.

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Post by theMoMA » Tue May 15, 2007 7:16 pm

At the MN state championship, EP A had a bonus conversion in the mid 24s. I believe the tournament was held on IS67.

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Post by Frater Taciturnus » Tue May 15, 2007 7:28 pm

Wigner's friend wrote:
dsfcaptains2005 wrote:As to the fact that Whitman beat handicapped Gov A, even our A team (Freeman) was able to beat a Mark-less Gov A (@ Ocean Lakes). Not to say Whitman is bad.
To be fair, we beat Gonzaga by a pretty large margin at the same tournament (and yes, Ted was most certainly there). And the UMD tournament had a considerably more academic distribution, so it's not like we won because of speed or memorizing stock clues. In relation to the poll, it's not like Maggie Walker is the first upset we've pulled - we've beaten Chattahoochee and TJ A, as well. I wouldn't argue that we're better than those teams at all , particularly with the round to round vagaries and indecipherable distribution of NAQT packets, but I think we're in general better than we're given credit for.
Oh, absolutely. I remember when you all beat us to bloody pulps. I was just saying that the times Guerci hasn't been there were times when they were beatable.
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Post by brownboy79 » Tue May 15, 2007 7:28 pm

In response to that question a while ago, Kentucky has 8 teams going.
Central Hardin, Danville, Russell, Dunbar x2, Simon Kenton, MadNoHo and Paintsville. No Manual though. Interesting considering they were 12th last year and 7th the year before.

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Post by Gautam » Tue May 15, 2007 10:51 pm

quizbowllee wrote:
killbill_07 wrote:Out of curiosity, is this the biggest quiz bowl tournament in the history of quiz bowl? It's going to be interesting to see if 10 preliminary rounds are going to be enough to seed all the qualifying teams out of the initial pool of 160 appropriately for the playoffs on Sunday.

Also, is the Eden Prairie A team this year comparable to the Thomas Jefferson A team of 2005?
I think that there have been slightly bigger tournaments at Brookwood. But, probably not of this caliber.

I haven't seen Eden Prairie, and they may be great, but they are not even CLOSE to TJ 2005. I promise.
We aren't even CLOSE to TJ 2005. I can't understand how a team can be that good... Moreover, it's going to be our first time at a National Tournament, so that might be a setback.
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Post by jbarnes112358 » Wed May 16, 2007 12:03 am

Wigner's friend wrote:
but I think we're in general better than we're given credit for.
That is definitely a true statement.

Granted, we are a better team with Mark than without, but even with Mark there is an excellent chance that you would have beat us in that game at UMD.

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Post by jbarnes112358 » Wed May 16, 2007 12:18 am

dsfcaptains2005 wrote: I was just saying that the times Guerci hasn't been there were times when they were beatable.
Yes, but we were also beatable when Mark is there, by teams like Stuyvesant, RM B, and TJ (A or B), while nearly losing to teams like Gonzaga, RM A, State College and others. While it is flattering that people voted us number 1, and based on our season we probably deserve to be there, I suppose. But, we are definitely beatable and there are numerous teams capable of doing so. I believe nationals are wide open this year. The team that prevails will not only have to be really good but will need a bit of luck to go all the way to the championship. This is especially true given the unpredictable nature of an NAQT packet. I liken it to the NCAA basketball tournament in this regard. Upsets frequently happen, and the favorites do not always come out on top.

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Post by gonzagaeagleahy » Sat May 19, 2007 12:20 pm

All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.

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Post by Gonzagapuma1 » Sat May 19, 2007 12:22 pm

I agree with the dancing chicken again.

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Post by vcuEvan » Sat May 19, 2007 5:12 pm

gonzagaeagleahy wrote:All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.
Is that the same a performing miracles?

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Post by gonzagaeagleahy » Sun May 20, 2007 1:28 am

iambusyeating wrote:
gonzagaeagleahy wrote:All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.
Is that the same a performing miracles?
No, but he'll do that too.

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Post by Byko » Sun May 20, 2007 1:12 pm

gonzagaeagleahy wrote:
iambusyeating wrote:
gonzagaeagleahy wrote:All I can predict is that Theodore Gioia will perform miraculously.
Is that the same a performing miracles?
No, but he'll do that too.
If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.
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Post by STPickrell » Sun May 20, 2007 2:26 pm

Byko wrote:If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.
If he were martyred at NAQT Nationals, only one miracle would be needed. He would need two miracles otherwise.

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Post by ieppler » Sun May 20, 2007 5:22 pm

StPickrell wrote:
Byko wrote:If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.
If he were martyred at NAQT Nationals, only one miracle would be needed. He would need two miracles otherwise.
If he "martyred" himself in the :chip: war room, could he be canonized immediately?

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Post by First Chairman » Sun May 20, 2007 7:13 pm

Please let's not say things like that. I need his help with the Writers Bootcamp (which I think can qualify as a miracle :) ).
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Post by aestheteboy » Sun May 20, 2007 9:01 pm

E.T. Chuck wrote:I need his help with the Writers Bootcamp (which I think can qualify as a miracle :) ).
He only needs one more then.

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Post by Wall of Ham » Mon May 21, 2007 12:09 am

Question: Will we be able to see or hear cicadas in Chicago? That would be pretty sweet.

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Post by STPickrell » Mon May 21, 2007 12:10 pm

Hopper wrote:
StPickrell wrote:
Byko wrote:If I remember my religious education correctly, it only takes 3 miracles for sainthood. I'm just saying.
If he were martyred at NAQT Nationals, only one miracle would be needed. He would need two miracles otherwise.
If he "martyred" himself in the :chip: war room, could he be canonized immediately?
I imagine he could be canonized immediately if there were a miracle accompanying his martyrdom. However, wouldn't there have to be witnesses or something?

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Post by First Chairman » Mon May 21, 2007 12:40 pm

We are all witnesses.
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Post by Byko » Mon May 21, 2007 4:26 pm

Okay, time to start some more debate.

Last year, 3/8 of the HSNCT field of 128 teams made it into the playoffs with 6-4 records. So, based on that same fraction, here are the 60 teams, based on some quantitative and qualitative analysis, that I am predicting will be in this year's playoffs (listed in alphabetical order):

Bloomington (IL)
Brindlee Mountain A (AL)
Brookwood A (GA)
Brookwood B (GA)
Central Gwinnett (GA)
Charter A (DE)
Chattahoochee (GA)
Cistercian (TX)
Danville (KY)
Detroit Catholic Central A (MI)
Detroit Catholic Central B (MI)
Dorman A (SC)
Dorman B (SC)
Dunbar A (KY)
Dunbar B (KY)
E.O. Smith A (CT)
East Lansing A (MI)
Eden Prairie A (MN)
Eden Prairie B (MN)
Garfield Heights (OH)
George Mason (VA)
Georgetown Day (DC)
Gonzaga (DC)
Governor's School A (VA)
Governor's School B (VA)
Hanover (NH)
Harrison A (IN)
Hunter (NY)
James Island (SC)
Lisgar (ON)
Livingston (NJ)
Madisonville-North Hopkins (KY)
Maine South (IL)
MLK Magnet (TN)
Moravian (PA)
New Trier (IL)
North Kansas City (MO)
Novi (MI)
Orono (MN)
Raleigh Charter (NC)
Richard Montgomery A (MD)
Richard Montgomery B (MD)
Rockford Auburn (IL)
Russell (KY)
Saint Anthony Village (MN)
Santa Monica (CA)
Shady Side (PA)
St. Ignatius (IL)
St. John's (TX)
St. Thomas (MN)
State College A (PA)
State College B (PA)
Stuyvesant A (NY)
Thomas Jefferson A (VA)
Thomas Jefferson B (VA)
Troy (MI)
Walnut Hills (OH)
Walt Whitman (MD)
Wayzata A (MN)
Wheaton North (IL)

Close behind and definitely within striking distance are these 20 teams:
Aiken (SC)
Arcadia A (CA)
Benton (AR)
Cave Spring (VA)
Champlain Valley Union (VT)
Charter B (DE)
Chaska (MN)
Cretin-Derham (MN)
Edmond Memorial (OK)
Eleanor Roosevelt (MD)
Greater Sioux Falls Home School Association (SD)
Hill-Murray (MN)
Minnetonka (MN)
Mound Westonka (MN)
Norcross (GA)
Parkview Arts and Sciences Magnet (AR)
Rancho Bernardo (CA)
Savannah (MO)
Simon Kenton (KY)
Wayzata B (MN)

Okay, fire away--I'll try to defend myself.
Dave Bykowski
Furman '00
Michigan '02
PACE 1998-2009
Director, JROTC National Academic Bowl Championship

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DumbJaques
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Post by DumbJaques » Mon May 21, 2007 4:29 pm

The generally unpredictable lineup configuration/whatever of Charter A/B notwithstanding, that list looks pretty good. I personally think Eleanor Roosevelt could easily put together a 6-4 record, depending on their schedule.

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Irreligion in Bangladesh
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Location: Winnebago, IL

Post by Irreligion in Bangladesh » Mon May 21, 2007 4:54 pm

I don't think every Illinois team in the field is worthy of making the playoffs. I wasn't that impressed with St. Ignatius at NAQT State and Wheaton North is too heavy on math for me to consider them as playoff contenders. I won't attempt to predict which ones it'll be, but I think that no more than four of the six make it into the playoffs.

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Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)
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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Mon May 21, 2007 5:00 pm

I would say I think Liberty can go 6-4. I think they are above Savannah.
Charlie Dees, North Kansas City HS '08
"I won't say more because I know some of you parse everything I say." - Jeremy Gibbs

"At one TJ tournament the neg prize was the Hampshire College ultimate frisbee team (nude) calender featuring one Evan Silberman. In retrospect that could have been a disaster." - Harry White

jdd2007
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Post by jdd2007 » Mon May 21, 2007 5:03 pm

The list looks very well done, although Minnesota looks a little over-represented to me. There aren't many stats out there for Fisher Catholic (OH), but with their best lineup they have a very good chance of making playoffs.

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