Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

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Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by theattachment » Sun Apr 27, 2008 12:35 am

Seeing as there's no way to not do this by hand/keyboard, I got bored tonight and looked up the rankings of the entire field for HSNCT. Here it is as of 4/26 (grouped by state):

Int'l
Lisgar - 102
Shanghai American - 213
Cheongshim - ?

AL
Brindlee A - 31
Brindlee B - 128
Covenant Christian - 255
Hoover - 78
Benton - ?
Huntsville - 1175

AR
Little Rock Central - ?
Malvern - ?
Northside - ?
Parkview - 202

CA
Arcadia - 330
Bentley - 320
Chinese Christian - 1292
Clayton Valley - ?
Edison A - 381
Edison B - 766
Harker - 173
La Jolla - 471
Mission San Jose - 126
Rancho Bernardo A - 207
Rancho Bernardo B - 293
San Mateo - 970
Santa Monica - 80
Torrey Pines - 400

CT
E.O. Smith - 211

DC
Georgetown Day - 40
Gonzaga - 20

DE
Charter A - 6
Charter B - 100
Charter C - 256

FL
Hardee - 484
Holmes - 622
Montverde - 1271
Ransom Everglades - ?
South Fork - 67

GA
Brookwood - 24
Cedar Shoals - 2076
Chattahoochee - 18
Murray County - 1020
Norcross - 35
Walton - 28

IL
Auburn - 14
Loyola - 62
Maine South - 49
New Trier - 21

IN
Culver A - 245
Culver B - 1122
Penn - 79
St Joseph's - 91

IA
Southeast Polk - 105
West Bend-Mallard - 519

KY
Adair - 1916
Madisonville North Hopkins - 1169
Middlesboro - ?
Paintsville - 153
Dunbar A - 32
Dunbar B - 385
Russell - 58

MD
C Milton Wright - 157
Whitman A - 4
Whitman B - 194
WJ - 29

MI
Catholic Central - 9
Churchill - 223
Corunna - 434
Detroit County Day - 677
DeWitt - 141
East Lansing - 5
Grosse Pointe North - ?
Hartland - 580
Hillsdale - 916
Huron - 90
Kent City - 1643
Novi A - 53
Novi B -707
Roscommon 561
Troy - 1234
White Cloud - 783

MN
Central - 268
Chaska - 16
De - 143
EP A - 2
EP B - 73
EP C - 413
Edina - 92
Hopkins - 476
Irondale - 374
Tonka A - 47
Tonka B - 394
MPA - 451
Orono - 41
Armstrong -338
Rosemount - 380
Simley - 138
Wayzata A - 33
Wayzata B - 76

MO
Liberty - 85
NKC - 8
Savannah - 11

MS
St Andrews - 260

MT
Beaverhead County - ?

NV
Coronado - ?

NJ
Bergen County - 96
East Brunswick - 186

NY
Colton-Pierrepont - 872
Half Hollow Hills West - 64
Hunter - 19
Kellenberg - 46
New Rochelle - 2678
Stuyvesant - 13

NC
Salisbury - 836

OH
Canfield - ?
Columbus Academy - 54
Findlay - 36
Garfield Heights - 27
Miami Valley - 310
Northmont - 615
Ottawa Hills - 34
Poland Seminary - 559
Solon - 132
Stow Munroe Falls - 159
Tippecanoe - 286
Walnut Hills - 77
Fisher Catholic - 188

OK
Drummond A - 334
Drummond B - 765
Edmond Home School - 421
Edmond Memorial - 289
Edmond Santa Fe - 195
Hilldale - 674
Mustang - 391
Oklahoma Bible - 424

PA
Brookville - 2830
Hollidaysburg - ?
Moravian - 30
Shady Side - 171
State College A - 15
State College B - 131
Unionville - 106

SC
Fort Mill - 1097
Dorman A - 1
Dorman B - 12
Governor's School - 751

SD
GSFHSA - 578

TN
Hume-Fogg - 210
MLK - 17

TX
Bellaire - 233
LASA A - 48
LASA B - 285
Prosper - 1838
St John's - 37

UT
Christian Heritage - ?
St Joseph - ?
Juan Diego - ?

VA
Collegiate - 109
Robinson - 112
Maggie Walker A - 23
Maggie Walker B - 98
Orange County - ?
TJ A - 3
TJ B - 84

WA
Bishop Blanchet - ?

WV
Charleston Catholic - 687

WI
Oshkosh West - ?
La Follette - 1016

Obviously there's a bunch of holes in stats as denoted by the question marks (as well as a bunch of teams that are in the 1000s due to undersampling), but it's an interesting look. Very few states see their "top teams" on the field list, as most to all have a large gap between their top-ranked attendees and their next ones. The states that buck that trend most are Illinois (outside of Wheaton they're sending, if I remember right, their top 5); Georgia, who send their top 4 and a couple others; Minnesota; who send their top 8 in a row; and Delaware, who send Charter and their awesomeness.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by AKKOLADE » Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:01 am

You missed Bridgeport for WV, which is ranked 266th nationally.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by quizbowllee » Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:30 am

Benton is in AR, not AL.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by BroNi » Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:33 am

New York is sending their top 4. And New Rochelle is grossly underranked. Their Byko rating has been based on games where their best player, by far, wasn't present.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Matthew D » Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:44 am

Huntsville is also in AR not AL...
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Down and out in Quintana Roo » Sun Apr 27, 2008 10:55 am

You could/should do this with the NAQT ratings to give you an interesting (if possibly accurate) comparison.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by MahoningQuizBowler » Sun Apr 27, 2008 11:35 am

This is my own ranking set I've compiled, based on the way European club soccer teams are ranked when they qualify and participate in their continental competitions. This only takes into account games at HSNCT over a rolling 4-year period (this year it is 2004-2007, next year 2005-2008, etc.). Prelim games are rated at 1 point for a win, small school playoff games are rated 1 point per win, and full playoff games are 2 points per win. The school ranking is the combination of their earned points over the 4-year period and one-fourth of their state's average over the same period. If a school has more than one team in the field, the B team is given half of the school's earned points, the C team one-fourth of the school's earned points, etc.

State / Team / Earned Points / Total Points

VA Thomas Jefferson A 130 140.8155
PA State College A 115 125.125
VA Maggie Walker 98 108.8155
SC Dorman A 88 97.5833
VA Thomas Jefferson B 65 75.8155
MI Catholic Central 64 70.9819
PA State College B 57.5 67.625
DE Charter School of Wilmington A 53 60.875
KY Paul Lawrence Dunbar A 51 58.5813
GA Brookwood 45 53.8046
SC Dorman B 44 53.5833
TX St. John's 45 50.8752
PA Shady Side Academy 40 50.125
MI Troy 42 48.9819
AL Brindlee Mountain A 37 42.7291
CA Santa Monica 37 42.6632
MN Minnetonka A 34 37.9089
CA Mission San Jose 31 36.6632
MD Walt Whitman A 27 36.0208
MI East Lansing 28 34.9819
DE Charter School of Wilmington B 26.5 34.375
OH Solon 27 34.1563
IL New Trier 29 34.0833
MI White Cloud 27 33.9819
KY Paul Lawrence Dunbar B 25.5 33.013
PA Moravian Academy 22 32.125
CA Bentley 24 29.6632
TN MLK Magnet 26 29.0833
MN Eden Prairie A 25 28.9089
MI Grosse Pointe North 21 27.9819
MI Novi A 21 27.9819
MN Wayzata A 24 27.9089
CA Edison 22 27.6632
CA La Jolla 21 26.6632
NY Stuyvesant 23 26
TX Bellaire 20 25.8752
Int Lisgar Collegiate Institute 17 25.25
OH Columbus Academy 18 25.1563
OH Walnut Hills 18 25.1563
CA Arcadia 19 24.6632
Int Shanghai American School 16 24.25
AL Brindlee Mountain B 18.5 24.2291
NJ Bergen County Academies 18 24.0625
MS St. Andrew's Episcopal 19 23.625
MD Walt Whitman B 13.5 22.5208
MI Kent City 15 21.9819
OK Edmond Home School Co-op 18 21.8945
DE Charter School of Wilmington C 13.25 21.125
MN Minnetonka B 17 20.9089
GA Walton 12 20.8046
SC Fort Mill 11 20.5833
MN Robbinsdale Armstrong 16 19.9089
OK Drummond A 16 19.8945
MD Walter Johnson 10 19.0208
DC Gonzaga 15 18.125
OH Garfield Heights 10 17.5163
CT E. O. Smith 14 17.5
SD Greater Sioux Falls Home School Association 13 17.5
MI Novi B 10.5 17.4819
MI Churchill 10 16.9819
AR Malvern 11 16.8333
AR Parkview Arts and Science Magnet 11 16.8333
CA Edison B 11 16.6632
WI Oshkosh West 12 16.5
MO North Kansas City 14 16.4167
MN Eden Prairie B 12.5 16.4089
MN Mounds Park Academy 12 15.9089
MN Wayzata B 12 15.9089
OK Edmond Memorial 12 15.8945
AR Benton 10 15.8333
VA Collegiate School 5 15.8155
KY Madisonville North Hopkins 8 15.5813
PA Brookville Area 5 15.125
MI Hartland 8 14.9819
VA James W Robinson 4 14.8155
GA Norcross 6 14.8046
AL Covenant Christian Academy 9 14.7291
MN Chaska 10 13.9089
CA Rancho Bernardo 8 13.6632
CA San Mateo 8 13.6632
DC Georgetown Day School 10 13.125
IL Maine South 8 13.0833
KY Russell 5 12.5813
OH Fisher Catholic 5 12.1563
OH Tippecanoe 5 12.1563
NY Hunter College 9 12
MN Orono 8 11.9089
OK Drummond B 8 11.8945
OK Mustang 8 11.8945
KY Paintsville 4 11.5813
IA Southeast Polk 8 11.4125
IL Loyola Academy 5 10.8333
VA Orange County 0 10.8155
GA Cedar Shoals 2 10.8046
CA The Harker School 5 10.6632
CA Torrey Pines 5 10.6632
MN Eden Prairie C 6.25 10.1589
PA Holidaysburg Area 0 10.125
PA Unionville 0 10.125
IL Auburn 5 10.0833
NJ East Brunswick 4 10.0625
MN DeLaSalle 6 9.9089
FL Ransom Everglades 6 9.8542
CA Rancho Bernardo B 4 9.6632
SC SC Gov School for Sci and Math 0 9.5833
MD C. Milton Wright 0 9.0208
OK Edmond Santa Fe 5 8.8945
OK Hilldale 5 8.8945
GA Murray County 0 8.8046
GA Pepperell 0 8.8046
UT Juan Diego Catholic 7 8.75
Int CheongShim International Academy 0 8.25
NY Kellenberg Memorial 5 8
MN Rosemount 4 7.9089
IN Culver Academies A 7 7.875
KY Adair County 0 7.5813
KY Middlesboro 0 7.5813
MO Savannah 5 7.4167
OH Canfield 0 7.1563
OH Findlay 0 7.1563
OH Northmont 0 7.1563
OH Ottawa Hills 0 7.1563
OH Poland Seminary 0 7.1563
OH Stow-Munroe Falls 0 7.1563
OH The Miami Valley School 0 7.1563
NY Half Hollow Hills West 4 7
MI Corunna 0 6.9819
MI Detroit Country Day 0 6.9819
MI DeWitt 0 6.9819
MI Hillsdale 0 6.9819
MI Huron - New Boston 0 6.9819
MI Roscommon 0 6.9819
MO Liberty 4 6.4167
TX Liberal Arts and Science A 0 5.8752
TX Liberal Arts and Science B 0 5.8752
TX Prosper 0 5.8752
FL Holmes County 2 5.8542
AR Huntsville 0 5.8333
AR Little Rock Central 0 5.8333
AR Northside 0 5.8333
AL Hoover 0 5.7291
CA Chinese Christian 0 5.6632
CA Clayton Valley 0 5.6632
WA Bishop Blanchet 0 4.5
WI Robert M. LaFollette 0 4.5
IN Culver Academies B 3.5 4.375
MN Central Senior 0 3.9089
MN Edina 0 3.9089
MN Hopkins 0 3.9089
MN Irondale 0 3.9089
MN Simley 0 3.9089
OK Oklahoma Bible Academy 0 3.8945
FL Hardee 0 3.8542
FL Monteverde 0 3.8542
FL South Fork 0 3.8542
NC Salisbury 0 3.75
IA West Bend-Mallard 0 3.4125
TN Hume-Fogg Academic 0 3.0833
NY Colton-Pierrepont 0 3
NY New Rochelle 0 3
UT Christian Heritage 0 1.75
UT St. Joseph Catholic 0 1.75
IN Penn 0 0.875
IN St. Joseph's 0 0.875
MT Beaverhead County 0 0
WV Bridgeport 0 0
WV Charleston Catholic 0 0
NV Coronado 0 0
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Sun Apr 27, 2008 12:42 pm

I think Whitman's place on there proves how flawed that is.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by The Atom Strikes! » Sun Apr 27, 2008 12:59 pm

Deesy Does It wrote:I think Whitman's place on there proves how flawed that is.
I agree-- a team's past performance on questions doesn't necessarily indicate how it will do in the future-- Whitman didn't place well at an HSNCT until last year, and now they're either the best or second-best team in the country. Also, the methodology of dividing points among a school's teams in that way is ridiculous-- it overpromotes large teams, and gives some undeserved credit to the B-teams of good schools.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Gonzagapuma1 » Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:00 pm

I thnik almost everyone's place on there shows how flawed that is.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by cornfused » Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:06 pm

Isn't it just kind of accepted fact that if Dorman ain't #1, it ain't a good ranking system?
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Haaaaaaaarry Whiiiiiiiiiite » Sun Apr 27, 2008 1:17 pm

cornfused wrote:Isn't it just kind of accepted fact that if Dorman ain't #1, it ain't a good ranking system?
I don't know. I think Whitman's got a case against them.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Down and out in Quintana Roo » Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:06 pm

Gonzagapuma1 wrote:I thnik almost everyone's place on there shows how flawed that is.
Well look, would you rather have this ranking system, or nothing at all? I honestly think it's pretty cool to have this, compared to a couple years ago when everything was anecdotal and "no we're better" arguments.

If you don't like this ratings system, go ahead and make one of your own then.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by AKKOLADE » Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:14 pm

Caesar Rodney HS wrote:
Gonzagapuma1 wrote:I thnik almost everyone's place on there shows how flawed that is.
Well look, would you rather have this ranking system, or nothing at all? I honestly think it's pretty cool to have this, compared to a couple years ago when everything was anecdotal and "no we're better" arguments.

If you don't like this ratings system, go ahead and make one of your own then.
Don't play the 'if you don't like x do it yourself!' card. A large purpose of this forum is to share feedback, positive or negative, on quiz bowl related things.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by quizbowl » Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:23 pm

It is interesting to see how teams have performed over the last several years at HSNCT. However, how teams have performed in the past has no bearing whatsoever on how they will perform this year. No disrespect to Maggie Walker, but does anyone honestly think they will get third this year? Obviously they are a good team, having won Virginia's NAQT state championship, but they are not a national championship contender this year. Walt Whitman, on the other hand, is one of the teams (along with Dorman, TJ, and maybe Charter) with a viable chance of winning the championship. However, according to MahoningQuizBowler's ranking, Walt Whitman is the 19th best team. This is why this ranking is flawed. It is not an accurate predictor of where teams will finish, while other rankings, such as Byko's and this message board's own poll, generally give a pretty accurate prediction on how a team will finish.
Caesar Rodney HS wrote:You could/should do this with the NAQT ratings to give you an interesting (if possibly accurate) comparison.
What are these NAQT ratings of which you speak?

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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by dschafer » Sun Apr 27, 2008 3:35 pm

MahoningQuizBowler wrote:This is my own ranking set I've compiled, based on the way European club soccer teams are ranked when they qualify and participate in their continental competitions. This only takes into account games at HSNCT over a rolling 4-year period (this year it is 2004-2007, next year 2005-2008, etc.). Prelim games are rated at 1 point for a win, small school playoff games are rated 1 point per win, and full playoff games are 2 points per win. The school ranking is the combination of their earned points over the 4-year period and one-fourth of their state's average over the same period. If a school has more than one team in the field, the B team is given half of the school's earned points, the C team one-fourth of the school's earned points, etc.
(Emphasis mine)

While I agree that these rankings don't seem to represent the current consensus, it is apparent that they are not really supposed to. If this is based on the UEFA coefficients, then it is not designed to predict the winner of the tournament in a given year. It's designed to provide some level of seeding guidance at the start of a given season, based on how teams have consistently done in prior years. The UEFA rankings very rarely actually represent the consensus ordering of teams at any given time in European football either (AC Milan is first right now, and there is no one outside of Milan that would argue they are the best team in football at this moment), but at the same time, Milan deserved strong consideration as one of the top teams in football going into competitions in the current season.

If I understand the UEFA system and your interpretation of it correctly, these standings don't take into account any games played this year. Hence, it would be perfectly suited for, say, seeding a tournament being run in August or September, when no knowledge about the relative strengths of team for the upcoming year is known. In fact, that is precisely what UEFA uses it for; seeding the initial round of the Champions League. Once enough data is acquired (through the group stages), those results are used to seed the knockout rounds.

Looking over the rankings, they seem pretty much right for what they represent; would anyone going into a 6-group tournament before any games had been played this year have really objected to TJ, State College, Gov, Dorman, TJ B and DCC being placed in separate pools?

EDIT: MahoningQuizBowler: can you post the state coefficients as well?
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Down and out in Quintana Roo » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:06 pm

quizbowl wrote:What are these NAQT ratings of which you speak?
Right here: http://www.naqt.com/stats/ratings.jsp
I don't know why others haven't discussed these much at all.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by MahoningQuizBowler » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:09 pm

State coefficients 2004-2007

Rank State Total
1 VA 43.2619
2 PA 40.5
3 SC 38.3333
4 MD 36.0833
5 GA 35.2183
6 DE 31.5
7 KY 30.325
8 OH 28.625
9 MI 27.9277
10 NJ 24.25
11 TX 23.4286
12 AR 23.3333
13 AL 22.9167
14 CA 22.6529
15 IL 20.3333
16 MS 18.5
17 WA 18
18 WI 18
19 MN 15.6357
20 OK 15.5778
21 FL 15.4167
22 LA 15.3333
23 IA 13.65
24 SD 13
25 TN 12.3333
26 NY 12
27 MO 9.6667
28 CT 9.5
29 NC 9.5
30 KS 8.5
31 UT 7
32 VT 7
33 OR 4
34 NH 4
35 IN 3.5
36 NM 2
37 AK 0
38 AZ 0
39 CO 0
40 HI 0
41 ID 0
42 MA 0
43 ME 0
44 MT 0
45 ND 0
46 NE 0
47 NV 0
48 RI 0
49 WV 0
50 WY 0

DC 12.5
International 33
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by quizbowl » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:13 pm

Caesar Rodney HS wrote:
quizbowl wrote:What are these NAQT ratings of which you speak?
Right here: http://www.naqt.com/stats/ratings.jsp
I don't know why others haven't discussed these much at all.
I'm not going to lie. Those a pretty whack as well.

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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by MahoningQuizBowler » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:16 pm

All rankings are whack...
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by The Atom Strikes! » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:27 pm

MahoningQuizBowler wrote:All rankings are whack...
Byko's ratings are probably the least whack of the bunch... We're way overrated on NAQT's...
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Blackboard Monitor Vimes » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:34 pm

quizbowl wrote:
Caesar Rodney HS wrote:
quizbowl wrote:What are these NAQT ratings of which you speak?
Right here: http://www.naqt.com/stats/ratings.jsp
I don't know why others haven't discussed these much at all.
I'm not going to lie. Those a pretty whack as well.
These only include tournaments run on NAQT questions. They may be a better tool for comparing teams competing at HSNCT, but for all other purposes the Byko rankings are probably more accurate since they include other competitions. Also, the NAQT rankings incorporate prior HSNCT performance, the usefulness of which has already been discussed. Besides, when it comes to being realistic, anything can happen. At VCU's last minute tournament, competed on an IS set whose number I've forgotten, a weakened Gov B lost to Dorman B 645-0 one round and 360-205 another, while only losing to TJ A 290-270. I think NAQT's use of a tournament-based rather than round-based distribution may have something to do with this, but anyway, the point is in the end rankings are fairly irrelevant.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Down and out in Quintana Roo » Sun Apr 27, 2008 4:53 pm

SwissBoy wrote:
MahoningQuizBowler wrote:All rankings are whack...
Byko's ratings are probably the least whack of the bunch... We're way overrated on NAQT's...
I'm sure some of it comes from your record-breaking performance at the Delaware NAQT Tourney in January. When you're in a state with one school who can just smoke everybody else, you get some skewed results.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by The Atom Strikes! » Sun Apr 27, 2008 9:28 pm

Caesar Rodney HS wrote:
SwissBoy wrote:
MahoningQuizBowler wrote:All rankings are whack...
Byko's ratings are probably the least whack of the bunch... We're way overrated on NAQT's...
I'm sure some of it comes from your record-breaking performance at the Delaware NAQT Tourney in January. When you're in a state with one school who can just smoke everybody else, you get some skewed results.
It's also because we won the second day of the DACQ Weekend of Quizbowl Goodness, which featured a nationals-level field, and was run on NAQT questions. Of course, those results are rather skewed by the fact that Shantanu was ill that day and Dorman had to leave to catch a plane.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by M2 » Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:40 am

The NAQT rankings have Dorman A as having won the Spartanburg H.S. tournament, but that was Dorman's JV team playing as Dorman A. The regular Dorman A team was helping read at that tournament and did not play.

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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by STPickrell » Mon Apr 28, 2008 11:52 am

Those of us keeping score at home.

Orange County (VA) was a step behind Charlottesville and Western Albemarle all season long. Not sure if they appeared on It's Ac; they made the quarterfinals of Battle of the Brains (from which, presumably, they qualified.)

They *beat* Western (who made VHSL states) in the district tournament (and once out of three tries in the season I think), and finished second. The district counted a forfeit win by Charlottesville as being worth zero points (and then used total points as a tiebreaker), so Western got to win the regular season title.

All this was on my questions; pyramidal in the canonical areas but including several subjects not seen outside state series competitions.

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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by TheKillerRabbit » Thu May 01, 2008 8:31 pm

Someone really ought to compare these various rankings lists to the actual results from HSNCT, since that's probably the only way to find out which systems actually have any chance at all of predicting. Presumably the system that minimizes the average difference between a team's predicted and actual rankings would be the best.

As my personal opinion, I prefer the NAQT ratings, since they put my team at a higher position....
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Sir Thopas » Fri May 02, 2008 12:13 am

TheKillerRabbit wrote:Someone really ought to compare these various rankings lists to the actual results from HSNCT, since that's probably the only way to find out which systems actually have any chance at all of predicting. Presumably the system that minimizes the average difference between a team's predicted and actual rankings would be the best.

As my personal opinion, I prefer the NAQT ratings, since they put my team at a higher position....
This is, of course, based on the false assumption that HSNCT can actually separate teams according to their quizbowl ability.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by evilmonkey » Fri May 02, 2008 5:36 am

TheKillerRabbit wrote: As my personal opinion, I prefer the NAQT ratings, since they put my team at a higher position....
A Dummy (Bye, if I'm no dummy) is ranked 70th in the NAQT

Edit: Guy, the NAQT style is possibly the best national tournament for sorting who is the best, at least until more people start going to PACE, and PACE moves to a Swiss System. Granted, I still don't quite understand the playoff structure, but I understand that playoffs make things more fun, and are the best way to determine a champion with a limited number of packets.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Gonzagapuma1 » Fri May 02, 2008 7:17 am

evilmonkey wrote:
TheKillerRabbit wrote:Edit: Guy, the NAQT style is possibly the best national tournament for sorting who is the best, at least until more people start going to PACE, and PACE moves to a Swiss System. Granted, I still don't quite understand the playoff structure, but I understand that playoffs make things more fun, and are the best way to determine a champion with a limited number of packets.
I think you for got these are NAQT packets, so no, they are not the best way to determine a national champion.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Sir Thopas » Fri May 02, 2008 7:28 am

evilmonkey wrote:
TheKillerRabbit wrote: As my personal opinion, I prefer the NAQT ratings, since they put my team at a higher position....
A Dummy (Bye, if I'm no dummy) is ranked 70th in the NAQT

Edit: Guy, the NAQT style is possibly the best national tournament for sorting who is the best, at least until more people start going to PACE, and PACE moves to a Swiss System. Granted, I still don't quite understand the playoff structure, but I understand that playoffs make things more fun, and are the best way to determine a champion with a limited number of packets.
Yeah Puma is right, but this raises an interesting point as well. There's hardly a "limited number" of packets (nearly 30); wouldn't a fairer way to determine a champion be to take all the teams with a realistic chance and run them through several rebrackets, as is done in the college championships (and PACE, I believe)? Not saying that this would happen, but it would be a better way of determining a champion than playoffs.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by The Atom Strikes! » Fri May 02, 2008 8:52 am

Gonzagapuma1 wrote:
evilmonkey wrote:
TheKillerRabbit wrote:Edit: Guy, the NAQT style is possibly the best national tournament for sorting who is the best, at least until more people start going to PACE, and PACE moves to a Swiss System. Granted, I still don't quite understand the playoff structure, but I understand that playoffs make things more fun, and are the best way to determine a champion with a limited number of packets.
I think you for got these are NAQT packets, so no, they are not the best way to determine a national champion.
Indeed, it will instead crown the team that has the most knowledge of geography and current events.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by BuzzerZen » Fri May 02, 2008 11:29 am

metsfan001 wrote:This is, of course, based on the false assumption that HSNCT can actually separate teams according to their quizbowl ability
I don't think that this is a false assumption, Guy. Though the last two or three years have had some wacky final standings after the prelims, the playoff results have tended to be What You Would Expect, not to mention correlating reasonably well with NSC results.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by AndyShootsAndyScores » Fri May 02, 2008 11:34 am

Matthew D wrote:Huntsville is also in AR not AL...
Matt, that's Huntsville High School. Y'know, the one in Huntsville, AL?
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by First Chairman » Fri May 02, 2008 11:44 am

evilmonkey wrote:
TheKillerRabbit wrote:Edit: Guy, the NAQT style is possibly the best national tournament for sorting who is the best, at least until more people start going to PACE, and PACE moves to a Swiss System. Granted, I still don't quite understand the playoff structure, but I understand that playoffs make things more fun, and are the best way to determine a champion with a limited number of packets.
Just to let you know, speaking as an officer for PACE, I would not consider moving to a Swiss system until we were assured we would get our maximum field of 48 teams consistently. (Our fields have been inconsistent when it comes to predicting a final field size which would make it impractical to keep changing our schedule.) This is the first time we will get close to this number, so we will entertain such a schedule for the future (if we otherwise do not decide to experiment with such a schedule this year). But the final decision on tournament format will come from me, David Bykowski, and our tournament directors Jessie and Tricia.

I want to be sure that the card system schedule we use is THOROUGHLY tested to ensure that repeat games are kept at an absolute minimum with match set-ups done in the least amount of time. I also feel strongly that we do not water-down the integrity of our championship gauntlet. I see the value in a final 1-48 ranking, but with limited time and with logistical constraints, a champion must be crowned in time for people to make their flights back.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Howard » Fri May 02, 2008 12:17 pm

ILoveReeses wrote:I want to be sure that the card system schedule we use is THOROUGHLY tested to ensure that repeat games are kept at an absolute minimum with match set-ups done in the least amount of time.
With 48 teams can guarantee four rounds of teams with like records playing each other and five rounds of no repeat opponents. Of course, the only reason you can guarantee four rounds of like record matchups is that 48 is a multiple of 2^4. If you have one team drop, the whole field gets screwed up.

For optimal swiss performance, I think it's best to preseed and then calculate pairings after each match based primarily on record and secondarily on point total (or whatever statistical ranking tool you'd like to use). Of course, this typically takes far too much time to be efficient, so I've pretty much given up on attempting to use it. As I recall, though, MIT a couple times used some sort of real-time Swiss pairing system (Wren's, maybe?) by reporting scores at the end of games via laptop and wireless network. I believe I heard there were some problems with this, too, but don't recall hearing what they were.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by Sir Thopas » Fri May 02, 2008 6:39 pm

BuzzerZen wrote:
metsfan001 wrote:This is, of course, based on the false assumption that HSNCT can actually separate teams according to their quizbowl ability
I don't think that this is a false assumption, Guy. Though the last two or three years have had some wacky final standings after the prelims, the playoff results have tended to be What You Would Expect, not to mention correlating reasonably well with NSC results.
OK, I predict some wacky results this year then. Maybe I should put it in the prognostication thread.
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Re: Byko Rankings of HSNCT Field

Post by TheKillerRabbit » Fri May 02, 2008 9:53 pm

metsfan001 wrote:
TheKillerRabbit wrote:Someone really ought to compare these various rankings lists to the actual results from HSNCT, since that's probably the only way to find out which systems actually have any chance at all of predicting. Presumably the system that minimizes the average difference between a team's predicted and actual rankings would be the best.
This is, of course, based on the false assumption that HSNCT can actually separate teams according to their quizbowl ability.
Yes, but wasn't the point of this thread to try and predict the outcome of HSNCT (rather than the actual abilities of the teams)?
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