Postseason Poll

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Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:43 pm

I will be running this shortly. I am waiting for the final posting of ACF Nationals stats (player poll also to come).
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Periplus of the Erythraean Sea » Tue Apr 15, 2014 12:48 pm

I kindly ask people to rate us fairly despite recent incidents.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by 1992 in spaceflight » Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:37 am

If people want to use my stats repository when considering who to vote for, the team page has finishes from ICT and ACF Nationals listed on it as well.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Wed Apr 16, 2014 1:56 am

This is the official announcement for the collegiate poll, postseason edition.

Here are the general guidelines:

1. Fill out a ballot, ranking the top 25 (1 to 25) collegiate teams. You must rank at least 25 teams. No incomplete ballots will be counted.

2. Send the ballots via e-mail to me (chey0004 AT umn DOT edu). I will not count any ballots that are just posted here and in fact I would strongly, strongly urge you not to publicly post your ballots in this thread. You can discuss rankings though.

3. You may vote for any collegiate team and any B/C/D team, what have you. Please take some time to be informed about actual B/C team composition (i.e., many teams throughout the year mix up their starting A rosters). You may not vote for high school teams. Anyone sending in a ballot that has voted for a high school team will be asked to submit a new ballot. You may vote for community colleges.

4. While I can't force you to adopt a particular voting philosophy, I think Matt Weiner's conception that you are "voting for how this team, at best possible strength, would have done at ICT and Nationals." If you think a team would do better at one tournament than the other, than weigh that into your votes. What this means is that you are assuming these teams are playing on hard, Nationals/ICT-level questions, and that you cannot take considerations like "Oh, Team X didn't play ICT, I'll move them down a spot." Assume everyone is playing and assume they are at full strength. By full strength, I interpret it to mean "the best team they actually played this year."

5. Any bizarre ballots will either be rejected or I will ask for some explanation/logic. What I mean by bizarre is just completely ignoring any results that have happened so far and would include: intentionally ignoring a team whose results have suggested they were a major contender (for example, ignoring the fact that Virginia won both nationals!), overranking teams based on "gut feelings," and overranking B or C teams based on unsophisticated analysis of the data.

5. Ballots will never be released. I will list the names of the people who vote unless people have a problem with this.

6. Finally, I would encourage all voters to take a little time in drafting a ballot, and especially to look beyond your own geographical region. I would especially urge voters in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and East (where the majority of voters will probably come from) to review the performances of teams in the South, West Coast, Canada, and Southwest.

If anyone has any questions on voting, eligibility guidelines, etc., please post or e-mail. Voting will continue for at least two weeks.

The following is a review of the midseason rankings with no explanation regarding context:

#1: Virginia (1st at ICT, 1st at Nats)
#2: Penn (3rd at ICT, 3rd at Nats)
#3: Yale (2nd at ICT, 2nd at Nats)
#4: Chicago A (4th at ICT, 4th at Nats)
#5: Maryland A (5th at ICT, 7th at Nats)
#6: Michigan (6th at ICT, 6th at Nats)
#7: Harvard (9th at ICT, 5th at Nats)
#8: Illinois (8th at ICT, 8th at Nats)
#9: J. Sergeant Reynolds CC (7th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
#10: Columbia (12th at ICT, 25th at Nats--B team took 20th)
#11: MCTC (tied for 10th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
#12: Alberta (tied for 20th at ICT, 12th at Nats)
#13: Stanford (tied for 18th at ICT, 10th at Nats)
#14: MIT (tied for 10th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
#15: Ohio State (14th at ICT, 16th at Nats)
#16: Georgia Tech (13th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
#17: Michigan State (25th at ICT, 14th at Nats)
#18: Dartmouth (17th at ICT, 11th at Nats)
#19: Chicago B (tied for 18th at ICT, 18th at Nats)
#20: Maryland B (15th at ICT, 13th at Nats)
#21: Washington (didn't play ICT, 9th at Nats)
#22: WUSTL (22nd at ICT, 19th at Nats)
#23: Berkeley (tied for 20th at ICT, 15th at Nats; B team also took 22nd at Nats)
#24: North Carolina (didn't play ICT, 17th at Nats)
#25: Brown (didn't play either)

Of the teams who also received votes:
-Cornell (16th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Northwestern (2nd DII ICT, 21st at Nats)
-Harvard B (won DII ICT, didn't play Nats)
-UCSD (15th at DII ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Yale B (11th at DII ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Rutgers (didn't play ICT, 23rd at Nats)
-Louisville (23rd at ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Alabama (28th at ICT, 28th at Nats)
-Minnesota (tied for 26th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Illinois B (tied for 5th at DII ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Ottawa (tied for 26th at ICT, didn't play Nats)
-Oxford (didn't play either)
-Rice (didn't play either)

Teams finishing in the top 25 at either national that didn't receive any votes
-Western Kentucky (24th at ICT)
-Notre Dame (24th at Nats)
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Important Bird Area » Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:06 pm

Cheynem wrote: Of the teams who also received votes:
-UCSD (didn't play either)
15th at DII ICT, actually.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Wed Apr 16, 2014 12:49 pm

My bad, fixed.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Rococo A Go Go » Wed Apr 16, 2014 3:39 pm

Not that I expect anybody to vote for us, but note that we didn't have Alex at ICT.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by The Bold Ideas of Bernie Sanders (I-VT) » Wed Apr 16, 2014 3:48 pm

GymnogypsCalifornianusWKU wrote:Not that I expect anybody to vote for us, but note that we didn't have Alex at ICT.
If you mean Alex Malone, isn't he in high school?
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Rococo A Go Go » Wed Apr 16, 2014 4:24 pm

merv1618 wrote:
GymnogypsCalifornianusWKU wrote:Not that I expect anybody to vote for us, but note that we didn't have Alex at ICT.
If you mean Alex Malone, isn't he in high school?
I have been told that.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Thu Apr 17, 2014 12:43 pm

14 ballots are in already.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:41 pm

Closing April 27.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Mon Apr 28, 2014 1:16 pm

THE RESULTS

Voters: W.Alston, M. Bollinger, R. Carson, M. Church, N. Conder, S. Dogra, I. Hirsch, W. Holub-Moorman, M. Jackson, N. Karas, A. Kiss, S. Liu, S. Moyen, E. Mukherjee, J. Nutter, J. O'Rourke, J. Palmer, D. Puma, J. Reed, R. Rosenberg, A. Sperber, M. Weiner, R. Yu, and L. Zeng

There were 24 ballots. I have listed the highest and lowest ranking; if there is not a lowest ranking, they were not ranked by at least one voter.

1. Virginia (600, all 24 1st place votes, remained first)
2. Yale (573, highest #2, lowest #4, +1 from last poll)
3. Penn (553, highest #2. lowest #4, -1)
4. Chicago A (530, highest #3, lowest #4, same)
5. Maryland A (486, highest #5, lowest #7, same)
6. Michigan (476, highest #5, lowest #7, same)
7. Harvard A (475, highest #5, lowest #9, same)
8. Illinois (416, highest #8, lowest #11, same)
9. J. Sargeant Reynolds (401, highest #7, same)
10. MCTC (373, highest #9, lowest #12, +1)
11. MIT (345, highest #8, lowest #17, +3)
12. Washington (317, highest #8, lowest #18, +9)
13. Stanford (268, highest #15, lowest #18, same)
14. Georgia Tech (256, highest #11, lowest #22, +2)
15. Alberta (253, highest #11, lowest #20, -3)
16. Columbia A (247, highest #10, -6)
17. Dartmouth (246, highest #11, lowest #21, +1)
18. Ohio State (212, highest #14, lowest #20, -3)
19. Maryland B (200, highest #14, +1)
20. Michigan State (121, highest #16. -3)
21. Berkeley (120, highest #17, +2)
22. Chicago B (102, highest #18, -3)
23. North Carolina (79, highest #15. +1)
24. WUSTL (68, highest #19, -2)
25. Cornell (46, highest #19, not ranked)

Dropping out of the top 25: Brown

Also receiving votes: Brown (9), Northwestern (9), Harvard B (6), Minnesota (4), Western Kentucky (3), Columbia B (2), Louisville (2), Alabama (1), and Notre Dame (1).

Thanks for voting.
Mike Cheyne
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by t-bar » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:46 pm

Cheynem wrote:13. Stanford (268, highest #15, lowest #17, same)
Is this a typo? If they had been voted #15 on every single ballot, that would only be 264 points, right?
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Mon Apr 28, 2014 2:52 pm

It was a typo, which I corrected, although I don't know if that makes the math any more right.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Cheynem » Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:06 pm

[never mind, misread data]
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by The Ununtiable Twine » Mon Apr 28, 2014 3:33 pm

Nice to know I have a groupie somewhere out there.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by vinteuil » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:02 pm

It's really cool to look at how the numbers cluster here: Maryland, Michigan, and Harvard are all ranked quite closely (486, 476, 475; I think rightly), and similarly from Georgia Tech to Dartmouth (256-246; again, that seems to track my perception of how good those teams are fairly closely).
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Periplus of the Erythraean Sea » Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:13 pm

So time for a little self-interested griping:

This poll was meant to rank teams based on their ability to perform at national tournaments, and it seems a lot of people just did not vote based on this criteria, looking at the rankings. It also seems that people did not really take the whole "best possible team" criteria into account when voting and screwed Columbia very badly on account of several of their A-team players not playing the entirety of ACF Nationals.

For example: With regards to regular season vs. nationals performance, I would stipulate that a full Stanford or Alberta team is better than a full Dartmouth team at regular difficulty, and probably about equal to a full Columbia team or slightly worse. However, If you look at stats from ICT, it seems pretty clear to me that both Dartmouth and Columbia are better than Stanford at hard questions; Columbia finished in a higher bracket and had both better PPB and more powers, while we had higher prelims and playoffs PPG and more than 50% more powers despite having a much harder initial bracket at that tournament. Similarly, if you look at ACF Nationals stats (not counting the games we forfeited), we had higher PPG and PPB than both Stanford and Alberta, despite only having three players to Stanford's four (I am not sure how highly to value Alberta's supporting players - perhaps Sinan or Trevor can speak to this).

I can understand peoples' resentment towards players on the Columbia and Dartmouth teams for not playing all of ACF Nationals, but this shouldn't be coloring what should be a reasonably objective analysis of how good teams are.
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by grapesmoker » Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:06 pm

gamegeek2 wrote:I am not sure how highly to value Alberta's supporting players
Which "supporting players" might those be?
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Re: Postseason Poll

Post by Periplus of the Erythraean Sea » Fri May 02, 2014 4:05 am

grapesmoker wrote:
gamegeek2 wrote:I am not sure how highly to value Alberta's supporting players
Which "supporting players" might those be?
For example, Mitchell, who played with Trevor at ICT.
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