Road to Minneapolis: NAQT ICT bid prediction thread

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Road to Minneapolis: NAQT ICT bid prediction thread

Post by First Chairman » Sun Feb 11, 2007 11:15 pm

Here's what is known (depending on all field-related things)

Division I open
Brown
California Berkeley
Carleton (also undergrad)
Chicago
South Florida
Texas
Toronto
Virginia Commonwealth

Division I undergraduate
Amherst
Florida State
Harding
Ottawa
Princeton

Division II
Alabama
Chicago
Maryland
Missouri Rolla
MIT
Oklahoma (2 teams)
Stanford
Toronto
Washington University in St. Louis

Division II Community College
Cloud County CC KS
Gulf Coast CC GA
Snead State CC AL
Valencia CC FL

Hosts (but not George Mason)
Brock University
California Irvine
Harvard
Iowa
Michigan
Oklahoma State
Tennessee Chattanooga

Revised: included CC and West champions.
Last edited by First Chairman on Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:50 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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Post by Rothlover » Sun Feb 11, 2007 11:26 pm

How many teams from the CC's get wild card bids again? Without having all the stats, or even half, it seems that there were about 4 qualified D2 teams in the M-A, 4 in the S-E, have no idea how the south thing will be handled. Also, at least 6 teams in NE were qualified, and Brandeis should be a bubble team, what with putting up 210 PPG in the environment when your opponents put up 275. Of course, we all know what D2 counts for.

D1, seems like 80% of the non-Canada teams should get a bid based on turnout. Only teams with awful stats like Cincy will probably end up not getting a bid.

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Post by vandyhawk » Sun Feb 11, 2007 11:40 pm

How many of those DI undergrad winners came from SCT's with at least 4 undergrad teams? I'm fairly confident that the southeast had fewer than 4 undergrad teams, so Florida State would not get an auto bid. Speaking strictly about the southeast, in DI I feel like our stats are plenty good to get in, and I have to believe UF will as well. They finished ahead of us based on a game that doesn't go into S-value calcs, but seemingly our S-value should be a fair amount higher. I'd hate to see them not get a bid though. In Div II, I'd like to see all three teams that tied for 2nd after RR get a bid (since this includes our B team), but we shall see.

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Post by orangecrayon » Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:13 am

There were only three DI UG teams at the South SCT, but I'd be very surprised if Harding didn't get a bid anyway. I think all the other UG winners on that list had at least four teams at their stie (but don't take my word as gospel).

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Post by Zip Zap Rap Pants » Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:16 am

Rothlover wrote:How many teams from the CC's get wild card bids again?
To my knowledge there are almost always 8 total CC spots in the D2 field, leaving 24 spots for the other sectionals. We finished 5th out of 11 at ours with a 7-6 record, so... depending on which division the hosts take their automatic bids in (is this known yet?) and on the results/field size of the West sectional (are these known yet?), I VERY roughly estimate us to be about 31st on the list not including CC's, aka 7th on the waiting list. Last year SVU got in with the same record and basically the same place adjusted for field size (at the M-A sectional) and I think they were one of the last ones in, so yeah we're right on the bubble. Basically we're George Mason...
Rothlover wrote:Of course, we all know what D2 counts for
Yeah, hanging out at my teammate's brother's place in Minneapolis. We're gonna party like it's 1693 baby!
Last edited by Zip Zap Rap Pants on Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Andy Saunders » Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:16 am

Canada East had only 3 D1 UG teams.

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Post by Skepticism and Animal Feed » Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:05 am

I heard a rumor that only 24 teams in each division rather than 32 will qualify this year. Anyone else know something about this?

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Post by Matt Weiner » Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:11 am

Bruce wrote:I heard a rumor that only 24 teams in each division rather than 32 will qualify this year. Anyone else know something about this?
I guess that would be one way to avoid a repeat of the L.A. embarrassment where not enough teams could be found to fill out the field due to a poor choice of location...
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Post by ktour84 » Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:23 am

Matt Weiner wrote
Bruce wrote:
I heard a rumor that only 24 teams in each division rather than 32 will qualify this year. Anyone else know something about this?


I guess that would be one way to avoid a repeat of the L.A. embarrassment where not enough teams could be found to fill out the field due to a poor choice of location...
With all due respect, there will be a full field of 32 teams in D1 and D2 because of the very active Midwest circuit and the large number of schools within driving distance of the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. From Champaign-Urbana to Minneapolis, it's only an 8 hour drive and also cheaper to drive compared to driving up to Chicago and flying up to Minneapolis.

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Post by Andy Saunders » Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:46 am

Anyone want to give me odds on Brown winning the ICT?

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Post by grapesmoker » Mon Feb 12, 2007 2:47 am

Andy Saunders wrote:Anyone want to give me odds on Brown winning the ICT?
Ahahahahahahaha.... *wheeze* wahahahahahaha...

A million to one. If we win, I want 50%.
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Post by solonqb » Mon Feb 12, 2007 4:20 am

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Post by ValenciaQBowl » Mon Feb 12, 2007 8:57 am

Since CCs have been invited to the ICT, they've been given eight slots, and I assume that's still the same. There were supposed to be five CC SCTs (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas), though last year Miss's was cancelled, and I wonder if it was again. So obviously there are either three or four CC wildcard slots available.

In any case, Snead State won Alabama's CC SCT, and Gulf Coast won Georgia's, so they can be added to the list for DII.

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Post by Andy Saunders » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:11 am

How much, approximately, does NAQT adjust the stats for Division 2 teams that played on Division 1 questions?

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Post by First Chairman » Mon Feb 12, 2007 10:02 am

All I can say is that the mid-atl fielded 6 undergrad and 5 open in D1. By nice chance, the top flight wound up with 4 open and the middle flight had 4 UG teams; thus it wound up that the winning teams from those groups would "earn" their titles through playing their peer teams. (If UNC had beaten Virginia A in the half-game playoff tiebreak, UNC would have automatically gotten the D1 undergrad title since they would have had to play the tougher flight. Discuss fairness or unfairness as you see fit.)
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Post by cvdwightw » Mon Feb 12, 2007 4:42 pm

The West field was 6 DI open, 1 D1 undergraduate, and 3 D2.

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Post by Jeremy Gibbs Paradox » Mon Feb 12, 2007 6:10 pm

Do we know for sure if there are going to be 3 bids for the co-champs in d2 from the south SCT? D2 will be hard to gauge w/o that knowledge and w/o stats from the Iowa sectional.

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Post by Matt Weiner » Mon Feb 12, 2007 6:32 pm

cvdwightw wrote:The West field was 6 DI open, 1 D1 undergraduate, and 3 D2.
So, it appears from the stats that everyone played the same questions in the West. Were they the D1 or D2 questions?
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Post by cvdwightw » Mon Feb 12, 2007 6:36 pm

All rounds were on Division I questions.

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Post by Jeremy Gibbs Lemma » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:04 pm

I really want to go to Minneapolis regardless of whether we make it so I might just work anyway.
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Post by Strongside » Mon Feb 12, 2007 9:04 pm

Since the results of the North Sectional held at the University of Iowa are not online yet I am guessing that at least three teams from that sectional will qualify.

WashU got the automatic bid by winning and Illinois will almost certainly get in by going 12-1. Drake went 11-2 and someone on our team was told that we will very likely qualify for nationals. St. Olaf finished fourth at 10-3 and has a good shot at qualifying as well. Beyond that I don't know...
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Post by Andy Saunders » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:26 pm

I would say that at this point, your Division 2 team is going to need a points per bonus of at least 16 or so in order to get one of the original invitations for teams, unless it won the Sectional, and assuming that NAQT offers ICT invites to all 3 South co-champs.
Last edited by Andy Saunders on Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PNW stats

Post by nobthehobbit » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:26 pm

Here is a link to semi-official Pacific Northwest Sectional stats. It's unlikely that either UBC or SFU would attend ICT should either somehow get a bid.

http://ca.geocities.com/mathboy1986/NAQ ... dings.html

As in other Sectionals with mixed fields (all players but one in the field were D2-eligible, however) D1 questions were used.

Congratulations to everyone on their performance at their Sectional, and good luck to everyone who attends the ICT.

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Post by Aaron Kashtan » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:30 pm

So only two teams showed up at the tournament, and they played each other eleven times? That must have been the most boring tournament ever.

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Post by nobthehobbit » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:36 pm

Aaron Kashtan wrote:So only two teams showed up at the tournament, and they played each other eleven times? That must have been the most boring tournament ever.
On the other hand, we probably set an NAQT record, if not a QB record, for "most games played against a specific opponent at a tournament".

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Post by dtaylor4 » Tue Feb 13, 2007 12:02 am

Andy Saunders wrote:I would say that at this point, your Division 2 team is going to need a points per bonus of at least 16 or so in order to get one of the original invitations for teams, unless it won the Sectional, and assuming that NAQT offers ICT invites to all 3 South co-champs.
My team (Illinois A) put up about 18.1 PPB (17.8 if you count the one-game final), and I think both Drake and St. Olaf A may have bested that, so I wouldn't be surprised if two or even three D2 bids (besides the winner's) stem from the Iowa SCT.

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Post by jonpin » Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:19 am

All I saw of D2 was WU-A's last three games, but I was impressed with Illinois-A and Drake-A. I don't know their stats, but I have to think they both will be getting bids.

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Post by Jeremy Gibbs Lemma » Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:21 am

Yeah, Drake A and Illinois A should definitely make it based on the consistency of their play throughout the day. Given that we had such a poor first 5 rounds, I know we don´t really deserve to go even though we turned it up towards the end of the day. We beat St. Olaf A though so maybe that deserves a cookie or something.

Anyway, I just signed up for standby so I´ll be there for the fun however you look at it.
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Post by jazzerpoet » Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:25 pm

Not to be a pessimist, but unless you win SCT and get the automatic bid, you should never expect to earn a wild card bid, no matter how good your stats are. Sometimes, stats are just not enough; a lot of it depends on the strength (or perceived strength) of your SCT compared to all the other SCT tournaments. I will give you an example from my own personal experience.

Back in 2004 at the Arkansas Southwest SCT, my team (Tulsa) finished in third place with a record of 11-3. We were second amongst DII teams in PPG, and we lead the whole tournament (DI and DII) in powers; our bonus conversion was good but not spectacular. We even soundly defeated the two teams who finished ahead of us.

But when all was said and done, only the team who won the SCT (Kansas) actually got a bid to the ICT. That year, the Mid-Atlantic SCT received something like five or six wild card bids, while the Southwest SCT (which had 15 teams!) received only the automatic bid. Moreover, that year the ICT was at WUSTL, which would have been an easy drive for most of the teams at the Southwest SCT, so not even geographical proximity will guarantee you a wild card bid.

Just some food for thought. Thanks.

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Post by grapesmoker » Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:32 pm

jazzerpoet wrote:Not to be a pessimist, but unless you win SCT and get the automatic bid, you should never expect to earn a wild card bid, no matter how good your stats are. Sometimes, stats are just not enough; a lot of it depends on the strength (or perceived strength) of your SCT compared to all the other SCT tournaments. I will give you an example from my own personal experience.
I don't think this is at all true. No disrespect, but the Southwest is a relatively weak region, and you're talking about a year when the Mid-Atlantic was one of the most competitive regions in the nation. I think that if you look at the regions across the country, I'd be surprised if the top 5 teams in the Northeast DII didn't qualify, for example. By the same token, I'm sure Illinois will qualify, as will 2nd and 3rd place finishers from the mid-Atlantic (at least).
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Post by Rothlover » Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:56 pm

Top 6 Jerry. They all should be givens. Just add up PPG and PAPG and you will see how stacked that D2 region was. Seven of the 10 teams had bonus conversion equal to or better than the three tied champions in the SW. Brandeis seems more qualified statistically than some of the teams that are going to get auto-bids, and they went 4-6 (4-8 factoring in the playoffs.) SE had a few really good teams too, as did the Mid-Atlantic. You just can't take wins and losses by themselves to really mean anything as far as team quality goes.

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Post by Matt Weiner » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:10 pm

OK, this is what I came up with for DI using my magical guess at what the S-value formula might be. I also took some educated guesses at which division hosts might take their bids in--this would be a good place to post if I'm wrong about that, or if you got an autobid and don't plan on attending the ICT, or something like that.

Host bids 1-5 (alphabetical): Brock, Harvard, Iowa, Michigan, UTC

Autobids 6-15 (alphabetical): Berkeley, Brown A, Carleton, Chicago A, Harding, Princeton B, Toronto, USF, UT-Austin, VCU

Invites 16-32 (declining order of S-value): 16. Illinois, 17. Stanford A, 18. Caltech, 19. Chicago B, 20. Rutgers A, 21. Princeton A, 22. UCLA A, 23. Vanderbilt A, 24. Virginia A, 25. Yale, 26. Florida A, 27. Wisconsin, 28. USC, 29. Maryland A, 30. Florida State, 31. Columbia, 32. Amherst

Waitlist: 1. TexasA&M, 2. Ohio State A, 3. Johns Hopkins A, 4. North Carolina, 5. Southern Virginia

I can't do DII yet because, while I was able to approximate the bids from the Iowa DI sectional from rumors and hearsay, DII was far more complicated, so absent Iowa stats I won't attempt it. Plus I don't have any idea how the OSU DII situation will be resolved.

And of course CC SCTs are not done yet.
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Post by Andy Saunders » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:25 pm

Matt:

Brock is taking its autobid in D-II, not D-I; as far as I can tell, Brock and UTC are the only hosts taking their autobid in D-II.

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Post by orangecrayon » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:32 pm

Andy Saunders wrote:Brock is taking its autobid in D-II, not D-I; as far as I can tell, Brock and UTC are the only hosts taking their autobid in D-II.
There was an e-mail sent to SCT hosts that said something along those lines. Anyway, for what it's worth, Oklahoma State's autobid team is DI and we plan on making the trip...

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Post by jazzerpoet » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:33 pm

Autobids 6-15 (alphabetical): Berkeley, Brown A, Carleton, Chicago A, Harding, Princeton B, Toronto, USF, UT-Austin, VCU
Technically, Harding does not receive an automatic bid, since there were only three UG teams at the South SCT.
Not to be a pessimist, but unless you win SCT and get the automatic bid, you should never expect to earn a wild card bid, no matter how good your stats are. Sometimes, stats are just not enough; a lot of it depends on the strength (or perceived strength) of your SCT compared to all the other SCT tournaments. I will give you an example from my own personal experience.


I don't think this is at all true. No disrespect, but the Southwest is a relatively weak region, and you're talking about a year when the Mid-Atlantic was one of the most competitive regions in the nation. I think that if you look at the regions across the country, I'd be surprised if the top 5 teams in the Northeast DII didn't qualify, for example. By the same token, I'm sure Illinois will qualify, as will 2nd and 3rd place finishers from the mid-Atlantic (at least).
Hence why I used the phrase "perceived strength." I was not meaning to garner any dap for the Southwest region, per se; I was merely stating that that year I thought we were a lock to be invited to the ICT but were not. More to the point, you should not get your hopes up about getting a wild card bid when the whole process is arbitrary, secretive, and based on the perceptions of people who were not at your SCT and know nothing about the teams in said SCT.

Lastly, courtesy of Jeffrey Hill of Rolla, here are the stats from the South SCT in SQBS. (Note that these stats are probably only temporary until OSU posts them.)

<http://www.scobo.net/SCT07/SouthSCT_standings.html>

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Post by Matt Weiner » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:37 pm

jazzerpoet wrote:Technically, Harding does not receive an automatic bid, since there were only three UG teams at the South SCT.
Hmm...that's what I thought before someone told me otherwise. With OSU's host bid being in DI, and Brock's and UTC's in D2, Harding is the first team on the waitlist under my calculations.
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Post by Matt Weiner » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:26 pm

I thought I would just post my complete S-value ranking with everyone (except the Iowa teams) included so we can all guess for ourselves who gets invited as information comes in about where host bids will be taken and such.

Much like NAQT I will keep my educated guess at the formula's particulars secret. I will continue making adjustments to it based on how well it does or does not match up with the actual invites. I have made further changes since my above posts so this may not match up perfectly.

Predicted D1 field: Auto-qualifers in bold, predicted S-values under my guess formula to the left for comparison purposes.

Princeton B is out of order because they were 36th in S-value but qualified automatically as a UG champion. Chicago C is out of order because as far as I can tell they were an exhibition team? Can someone shed some light on this?

Initial invites:

1 Host Harvard
2 Host Iowa
3 Host Michigan
4 Host Oklahoma State
5 4.758 Brown A
6 4.692 Chicago A
7 4.539 Berkeley
8 4.438 Illinois
9 4.350 Chicago B
10 4.323 VCU
11 4.304 Stanford A
12 4.157 Caltech
13 3.985 Rutgers A
14 3.857 Princeton A
15 3.787 UCLA A
16 3.706 UT-Austin
17 3.662 Vanderbilt A
18 3.516 Virginia A
19 3.428 USF
20 3.369 Yale
21 3.149 Florida A
22 3.051 USC
23 2.953 Maryland A
24 2.856 Florida State
25 2.797 Columbia
26 2.769 Toronto
27 2.729 Amherst
28 2.661 Harding
29 2.644 TexasA&M
30 2.270 Princeton B
?? ?? Carleton
?? ?? Wisconsin

Waitlist:

31 2.521 Johns Hopkins A
32 2.493 Ohio State A
33 2.379 North Carolina
34 2.301 Virginia B
35 2.290 Southern Virginia

37 2.170 Cornell
38 2.164 UCLA B
39 2.084 UTK A
?? Other Iowa SCT teams
40 2.053 Oklahoma
41 2.020 McGill
42 2.018 Minnesota
43 1.888 Rochester
44 1.854 Case Western
45 1.802 Georgia A
46 1.789 MoRolla
47 1.789 BU
48 1.752 Stanford B
49 1.709 Ottawa
50 1.696 Rutgers B
51 1.524 UL-LA
52 1.397 Tulsa
53 1.389 George Washington
54 1.246 Queen's
55 1.191 Simon Fraser B
56 1.042 Cincinnati A
57 1.033 Simon Fraser A
58 1.026 UTK B

Ineligible:

?? 3.234 Chicago C
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Post by bsmith » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:54 pm

Maryland A qualifies, but not North Carolina, despite UNC finishing with a better record. Does NAQT override the S-value to ensure that a lower-record team doesn't "leapfrog" qualification ahead of a higher-record team at the same SCT? Or is this only between different brackets?

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Post by Matt Weiner » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:58 pm

bsmith wrote:Maryland A qualifies, but not North Carolina, despite UNC finishing with a better record. Does NAQT override the S-value to ensure that a lower-record team doesn't "leapfrog" qualification ahead of a higher-record team at the same SCT?
They have made it clear that there is no such provision, for good or ill.
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Post by Matt Weiner » Wed Feb 14, 2007 12:34 am

OK, I've recalibrated the formula to incorporate an estimated penalty or reward for mixed D1/D2 fields, and I've added the D2 stats from Iowa to do stats for D2.

The new D1 standings:

Field:

1 Host Harvard
2 Host Iowa
3 Host Michigan
4 Host Oklahoma State
5 4.758 Brown A
6 4.692 Chicago A

7 4.438 Illinois
8 4.409 Berkeley
9 4.350 Chicago B
10 4.323 VCU
11 4.186 Stanford A
12 4.058 Caltech
13 3.985 Rutgers A
14 3.857 Princeton A
15 3.706 UT-Austin
16 3.695 UCLA A
17 3.662 Vanderbilt A
18 3.516 Virginia A
19 3.428 USF
20 3.369 Yale
(IE. 3.234 Chicago C)
21 3.149 Florida A
22 2.981 USC
23 2.953 Maryland A
24 2.856 Florida State
25 2.797 Columbia
26 2.769 Toronto
27 2.729 Amherst
28 2.661 Harding
29 2.644 TexasA&M
?? ?? Carleton
?? ?? Wisconsin
35 2.270 Princeton B

Waitlist:

30 2.521 Johns Hopkins A
31 2.493 Ohio State A
32 2.379 North Carolina
33 2.301 Virginia B
34 2.290 Southern Virginia

36 2.170 Cornell
37 2.117 UCLA B
38 2.084 UTK A
39 2.053 Oklahoma
40 2.020 McGill
?? ?? Other Iowa Teams
41 2.018 Minnesota
42 1.888 Rochester
43 1.854 Case Western
44 1.802 Georgia A
45 1.789 MoRolla
46 1.789 BU
47 1.711 Stanford B
48 1.709 Ottawa
49 1.696 Rutgers B
50 1.524 UL-LA
51 1.397 Tulsa
52 1.389 George Washington
53 1.246 Queen's
54 1.202 Simon Fraser B
55 1.042 Cincinnati A
56 1.033 Simon Fraser A
57 1.026 UTK B
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Post by Matt Weiner » Wed Feb 14, 2007 12:37 am

D2 standings:

Autobids in bold.

This assumes that no one gets an autobid from Oklahoma State--note that none of the teams involved in the tie would qualify otherwise. If the top S-value team involved in the tie, Oklahoma C, gets an autobid, then Dartmouth B drops to the waitlist. If all three teams in the tie get autobids, then Vanderbilt B, McGill A, and Dartmouth B drop to the waitlist. WUSTL A qualifies no matter what because they won their sectional.

Field:

1 Host Irvine
2 Host Brock
3 Host UTC
4 4.766 Maryland B
5 4.678 MIT
6 4.392 Toronto A

7 4.258 Drake A
8 4.255 Harvard
9 4.227 Chicago D
10 4.102 Yale B
11 4.066 Alabama A
12 4.041 Illinois A
13 4.026 Dartmouth A
14 3.966 Saint Olaf A
15 3.809 Johns Hopkins B
16 3.733 Florida B
17 3.705 Virginia Tech A
18 3.643 Brown B
19 3.572 Georgia B
20 3.546 Minnesota
21 3.538 Vanderbilt B
22 3.520 McGill A
23 3.518 Dartmouth B
24 3.515 WUSTL A

Waitlist:

25 3.511 Chicago E
26 3.249 Truman State A
27 3.239 Toronto B
28 3.194 Princeton C
29 3.154 Northwestern A

30 3.150 Carleton A
31 3.135 OklahomaC
32 3.134 Brandeis
33 3.104 Case Western
34 3.102 William and Mary
35 3.096 Macalaster
36 3.006 Carnegie Mellon
37 2.948 Wilfrid Laurier A
38 2.934 Florida C
39 2.916 Illinois B
40 2.891 OklahomaB
41 2.845 Wisconsin A
42 2.830 Villanova A
43 2.829 Ohio State B
44 2.716 Rochester A
45 2.713 Virginia C
46 2.691 Washington C
47 2.686 Cornell University
48 2.685 MoRolla
49 2.673 Michigan State
50 2.655 Miss State
51 2.637 McMaster A
52 2.535 TulsaB
53 2.534 TulsaC
54 2.530 KansasStateA
55 2.506 WUSTL B
56 2.503 Toronto C
57 2.467 Stanford
58 2.456 Berry
59 2.431 Georgia C
60 2.417 Drake B
61 2.414 Hendrix
62 2.403 Villanova B
63 2.379 Wisconsin B
64 2.348 Bowling Green
65 2.347 Cincinnati B
66 2.336 HardingA
67 2.326 Alabama B
68 2.318 Virginia Tech B
69 2.316 Northwestern B
70 2.315 NYU
71 2.247 Texas-DallasA
72 2.235 Iowa State
73 2.222 Yale C
74 2.163 BC
75 2.125 HardingB
76 2.051 Grinnell
77 1.962 SWOkState
78 1.943 Emory
79 1.882 Wilfrid Laurier B
80 1.865 Carleton B
81 1.855 KansasStateB
82 1.846 McMaster C
83 1.817 USC
84 1.805 Saint Olaf B
85 1.804 McMaster B
86 1.769 UT-Austin
87 1.724 McGill University B
88 1.712 Berkeley
89 1.708 Olin
90 1.689 Truman State B
91 1.625 British Columbia
92 1.452 Texas-DallsB
93 1.445 Penn
94 1.443 Chicago F
95 1.213 Alabama C
96 1.180 TexasA&M
97 1.157 Rochester B
98 1.068 Shorter
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Post by jonpin » Wed Feb 14, 2007 2:41 am

Since they may slightly influence the rankings (but probably not in any meaningful way), here are stats for Division II teams Ill-A, WU-A, and Drake-A with their final games added in (NAQT counts full-game on-the-clock tiebreakers for their purposes if I'm not mistaken).

Code: Select all

Team Name   W-L Win% 15  10 -5 Pts/TU Power% Pts/B
WUSTL-A    13-1 .929 22 112 27 13.066  8.03% 16.90
Illinois-A 12-2 .857 37 111 48 14.639 13.36% 17.77
Drake-A    11-2 .846 25 125 19 18.272 10.16% 19.77
WU's stock almost goes down, except for the automatic bid part, as their PPTU go down .6, while their Power% ticks up a bit as does their bonus conversion.
Illinois-A's PPTU goes down about .5, and their bonus conversion .3, but their power% goes up .3%.
Drake's stats are essentially the same and still VERY impressive.

It's been pretty well documented that the Big Three stats are bonus conversion, power percentage, and PPTU to varying extents, right?

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Post by cvdwightw » Wed Feb 14, 2007 6:24 pm

Stanford D2 gets an auto-bid for winning the D2 title in the combined field. Not sure how NAQT is going to compensate for having to play on a D1 set against D1 players to judge any wild-card chances for USC or Berkeley.

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Post by jonpin » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:16 pm

cvdwightw wrote:Stanford D2 gets an auto-bid for winning the D2 title in the combined field. Not sure how NAQT is going to compensate for having to play on a D1 set against D1 players to judge any wild-card chances for USC or Berkeley.
Stanford does NOT get an auto-bid for winning D2 in the combined field, because there were only three D2 teams (which is why there was a combined field).

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Post by cvdwightw » Wed Feb 14, 2007 10:17 pm

Oops. My bad. The second part of my post still applies to them, then.

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Post by Zip Zap Rap Pants » Thu Feb 15, 2007 1:02 pm

When does NAQT normally send out the invites? Late this month right?

Also, don't forget that for DI there are 1-2 automatic spots for British champions, though the Brits haven't taken advantage of them for 3-4 years anyway...
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Post by samer » Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:19 pm

jonpin wrote:It's been pretty well documented that the Big Three stats are bonus conversion, power percentage, and PPTU to varying extents, right?
Not quite.
NAQT wrote:NAQT does not release the formula for the S-value, but it combines statistical measures of tossup performance and bonus performance and includes corrections for opponent strength.

It is always better to win, even if this puts you into a higher (and harder) playoff bracket, and it is always better to convert a tossup, given the opportunity, and to convert bonus points, given the opportunity. Tossup statistics are computed per tossup heard (and bonus statistics per bonus heard), so there is no benefit to running up the score by trying to rush through a huge number of tossups near the end of a game.
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Post by Ray » Fri Feb 16, 2007 2:30 pm

Matt Weiner wrote: Ineligible:

?? 3.234 Chicago C
look dave, we would have made it

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Post by nobthehobbit » Sat Feb 17, 2007 5:39 am

Just for reference, the link I posted earlier for PNW Sectionals stats will soon be dead; use this link instead:

http://www.ams.ubc.ca/clubs/qbc/stats/N ... dings.html

Thanks.

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Post by rylltraka » Sat Feb 17, 2007 8:24 pm

Considering our USC Div II team was myself, a trash specialist, and three novices, I doubt any compensation for playing on Div I vs Div I would be enough to catapult us to an ICT slot we don't deserve.

It would be an abomination were Stanford's Div II team be excluded, however.

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