Road to Minneapolis: NAQT ICT bid prediction thread
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Road to Minneapolis: NAQT ICT bid prediction thread
Here's what is known (depending on all field-related things)
Division I open
Brown
California Berkeley
Carleton (also undergrad)
Chicago
South Florida
Texas
Toronto
Virginia Commonwealth
Division I undergraduate
Amherst
Florida State
Harding
Ottawa
Princeton
Division II
Alabama
Chicago
Maryland
Missouri Rolla
MIT
Oklahoma (2 teams)
Stanford
Toronto
Washington University in St. Louis
Division II Community College
Cloud County CC KS
Gulf Coast CC GA
Snead State CC AL
Valencia CC FL
Hosts (but not George Mason)
Brock University
California Irvine
Harvard
Iowa
Michigan
Oklahoma State
Tennessee Chattanooga
Revised: included CC and West champions.
Division I open
Brown
California Berkeley
Carleton (also undergrad)
Chicago
South Florida
Texas
Toronto
Virginia Commonwealth
Division I undergraduate
Amherst
Florida State
Harding
Ottawa
Princeton
Division II
Alabama
Chicago
Maryland
Missouri Rolla
MIT
Oklahoma (2 teams)
Stanford
Toronto
Washington University in St. Louis
Division II Community College
Cloud County CC KS
Gulf Coast CC GA
Snead State CC AL
Valencia CC FL
Hosts (but not George Mason)
Brock University
California Irvine
Harvard
Iowa
Michigan
Oklahoma State
Tennessee Chattanooga
Revised: included CC and West champions.
Last edited by First Chairman on Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:50 pm, edited 7 times in total.
Emil Thomas Chuck, Ph.D.
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Pimping Green Tea Ginger Ale (Canada Dry)
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How many teams from the CC's get wild card bids again? Without having all the stats, or even half, it seems that there were about 4 qualified D2 teams in the M-A, 4 in the S-E, have no idea how the south thing will be handled. Also, at least 6 teams in NE were qualified, and Brandeis should be a bubble team, what with putting up 210 PPG in the environment when your opponents put up 275. Of course, we all know what D2 counts for.
D1, seems like 80% of the non-Canada teams should get a bid based on turnout. Only teams with awful stats like Cincy will probably end up not getting a bid.
D1, seems like 80% of the non-Canada teams should get a bid based on turnout. Only teams with awful stats like Cincy will probably end up not getting a bid.
How many of those DI undergrad winners came from SCT's with at least 4 undergrad teams? I'm fairly confident that the southeast had fewer than 4 undergrad teams, so Florida State would not get an auto bid. Speaking strictly about the southeast, in DI I feel like our stats are plenty good to get in, and I have to believe UF will as well. They finished ahead of us based on a game that doesn't go into S-value calcs, but seemingly our S-value should be a fair amount higher. I'd hate to see them not get a bid though. In Div II, I'd like to see all three teams that tied for 2nd after RR get a bid (since this includes our B team), but we shall see.
- orangecrayon
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To my knowledge there are almost always 8 total CC spots in the D2 field, leaving 24 spots for the other sectionals. We finished 5th out of 11 at ours with a 7-6 record, so... depending on which division the hosts take their automatic bids in (is this known yet?) and on the results/field size of the West sectional (are these known yet?), I VERY roughly estimate us to be about 31st on the list not including CC's, aka 7th on the waiting list. Last year SVU got in with the same record and basically the same place adjusted for field size (at the M-A sectional) and I think they were one of the last ones in, so yeah we're right on the bubble. Basically we're George Mason...Rothlover wrote:How many teams from the CC's get wild card bids again?
Yeah, hanging out at my teammate's brother's place in Minneapolis. We're gonna party like it's 1693 baby!Rothlover wrote:Of course, we all know what D2 counts for
Last edited by Zip Zap Rap Pants on Mon Feb 12, 2007 1:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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new email: mpmorr at email dot wm dot edu
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I guess that would be one way to avoid a repeat of the L.A. embarrassment where not enough teams could be found to fill out the field due to a poor choice of location...Bruce wrote:I heard a rumor that only 24 teams in each division rather than 32 will qualify this year. Anyone else know something about this?
Matt Weiner
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
Matt Weiner wrote
With all due respect, there will be a full field of 32 teams in D1 and D2 because of the very active Midwest circuit and the large number of schools within driving distance of the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. From Champaign-Urbana to Minneapolis, it's only an 8 hour drive and also cheaper to drive compared to driving up to Chicago and flying up to Minneapolis.Bruce wrote:
I heard a rumor that only 24 teams in each division rather than 32 will qualify this year. Anyone else know something about this?
I guess that would be one way to avoid a repeat of the L.A. embarrassment where not enough teams could be found to fill out the field due to a poor choice of location...
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Ahahahahahahaha.... *wheeze* wahahahahahaha...Andy Saunders wrote:Anyone want to give me odds on Brown winning the ICT?
A million to one. If we win, I want 50%.
Jerry Vinokurov
ex-LJHS, ex-Berkeley, ex-Brown, sorta-ex-CMU
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ex-LJHS, ex-Berkeley, ex-Brown, sorta-ex-CMU
presently: John Jay College Economics
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Since CCs have been invited to the ICT, they've been given eight slots, and I assume that's still the same. There were supposed to be five CC SCTs (Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Kansas), though last year Miss's was cancelled, and I wonder if it was again. So obviously there are either three or four CC wildcard slots available.
In any case, Snead State won Alabama's CC SCT, and Gulf Coast won Georgia's, so they can be added to the list for DII.
In any case, Snead State won Alabama's CC SCT, and Gulf Coast won Georgia's, so they can be added to the list for DII.
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All I can say is that the mid-atl fielded 6 undergrad and 5 open in D1. By nice chance, the top flight wound up with 4 open and the middle flight had 4 UG teams; thus it wound up that the winning teams from those groups would "earn" their titles through playing their peer teams. (If UNC had beaten Virginia A in the half-game playoff tiebreak, UNC would have automatically gotten the D1 undergrad title since they would have had to play the tougher flight. Discuss fairness or unfairness as you see fit.)
Emil Thomas Chuck, Ph.D.
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Since the results of the North Sectional held at the University of Iowa are not online yet I am guessing that at least three teams from that sectional will qualify.
WashU got the automatic bid by winning and Illinois will almost certainly get in by going 12-1. Drake went 11-2 and someone on our team was told that we will very likely qualify for nationals. St. Olaf finished fourth at 10-3 and has a good shot at qualifying as well. Beyond that I don't know...
WashU got the automatic bid by winning and Illinois will almost certainly get in by going 12-1. Drake went 11-2 and someone on our team was told that we will very likely qualify for nationals. St. Olaf finished fourth at 10-3 and has a good shot at qualifying as well. Beyond that I don't know...
Brendan Byrne
Drake University, 2006-2008
University of Minnesota, 2008-2010
Drake University, 2006-2008
University of Minnesota, 2008-2010
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I would say that at this point, your Division 2 team is going to need a points per bonus of at least 16 or so in order to get one of the original invitations for teams, unless it won the Sectional, and assuming that NAQT offers ICT invites to all 3 South co-champs.
Last edited by Andy Saunders on Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PNW stats
Here is a link to semi-official Pacific Northwest Sectional stats. It's unlikely that either UBC or SFU would attend ICT should either somehow get a bid.
http://ca.geocities.com/mathboy1986/NAQ ... dings.html
As in other Sectionals with mixed fields (all players but one in the field were D2-eligible, however) D1 questions were used.
Congratulations to everyone on their performance at their Sectional, and good luck to everyone who attends the ICT.
http://ca.geocities.com/mathboy1986/NAQ ... dings.html
As in other Sectionals with mixed fields (all players but one in the field were D2-eligible, however) D1 questions were used.
Congratulations to everyone on their performance at their Sectional, and good luck to everyone who attends the ICT.
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Perspective is everything
On the other hand, we probably set an NAQT record, if not a QB record, for "most games played against a specific opponent at a tournament".Aaron Kashtan wrote:So only two teams showed up at the tournament, and they played each other eleven times? That must have been the most boring tournament ever.
My team (Illinois A) put up about 18.1 PPB (17.8 if you count the one-game final), and I think both Drake and St. Olaf A may have bested that, so I wouldn't be surprised if two or even three D2 bids (besides the winner's) stem from the Iowa SCT.Andy Saunders wrote:I would say that at this point, your Division 2 team is going to need a points per bonus of at least 16 or so in order to get one of the original invitations for teams, unless it won the Sectional, and assuming that NAQT offers ICT invites to all 3 South co-champs.
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Yeah, Drake A and Illinois A should definitely make it based on the consistency of their play throughout the day. Given that we had such a poor first 5 rounds, I know we don´t really deserve to go even though we turned it up towards the end of the day. We beat St. Olaf A though so maybe that deserves a cookie or something.
Anyway, I just signed up for standby so I´ll be there for the fun however you look at it.
Anyway, I just signed up for standby so I´ll be there for the fun however you look at it.
Kent Buxton
Truman State University '09
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Not to be a pessimist, but unless you win SCT and get the automatic bid, you should never expect to earn a wild card bid, no matter how good your stats are. Sometimes, stats are just not enough; a lot of it depends on the strength (or perceived strength) of your SCT compared to all the other SCT tournaments. I will give you an example from my own personal experience.
Back in 2004 at the Arkansas Southwest SCT, my team (Tulsa) finished in third place with a record of 11-3. We were second amongst DII teams in PPG, and we lead the whole tournament (DI and DII) in powers; our bonus conversion was good but not spectacular. We even soundly defeated the two teams who finished ahead of us.
But when all was said and done, only the team who won the SCT (Kansas) actually got a bid to the ICT. That year, the Mid-Atlantic SCT received something like five or six wild card bids, while the Southwest SCT (which had 15 teams!) received only the automatic bid. Moreover, that year the ICT was at WUSTL, which would have been an easy drive for most of the teams at the Southwest SCT, so not even geographical proximity will guarantee you a wild card bid.
Just some food for thought. Thanks.
Cheers!
Angelo Malabanan
Back in 2004 at the Arkansas Southwest SCT, my team (Tulsa) finished in third place with a record of 11-3. We were second amongst DII teams in PPG, and we lead the whole tournament (DI and DII) in powers; our bonus conversion was good but not spectacular. We even soundly defeated the two teams who finished ahead of us.
But when all was said and done, only the team who won the SCT (Kansas) actually got a bid to the ICT. That year, the Mid-Atlantic SCT received something like five or six wild card bids, while the Southwest SCT (which had 15 teams!) received only the automatic bid. Moreover, that year the ICT was at WUSTL, which would have been an easy drive for most of the teams at the Southwest SCT, so not even geographical proximity will guarantee you a wild card bid.
Just some food for thought. Thanks.
Cheers!
Angelo Malabanan
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I don't think this is at all true. No disrespect, but the Southwest is a relatively weak region, and you're talking about a year when the Mid-Atlantic was one of the most competitive regions in the nation. I think that if you look at the regions across the country, I'd be surprised if the top 5 teams in the Northeast DII didn't qualify, for example. By the same token, I'm sure Illinois will qualify, as will 2nd and 3rd place finishers from the mid-Atlantic (at least).jazzerpoet wrote:Not to be a pessimist, but unless you win SCT and get the automatic bid, you should never expect to earn a wild card bid, no matter how good your stats are. Sometimes, stats are just not enough; a lot of it depends on the strength (or perceived strength) of your SCT compared to all the other SCT tournaments. I will give you an example from my own personal experience.
Jerry Vinokurov
ex-LJHS, ex-Berkeley, ex-Brown, sorta-ex-CMU
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code ape, loud voice, general nuissance
ex-LJHS, ex-Berkeley, ex-Brown, sorta-ex-CMU
presently: John Jay College Economics
code ape, loud voice, general nuissance
Top 6 Jerry. They all should be givens. Just add up PPG and PAPG and you will see how stacked that D2 region was. Seven of the 10 teams had bonus conversion equal to or better than the three tied champions in the SW. Brandeis seems more qualified statistically than some of the teams that are going to get auto-bids, and they went 4-6 (4-8 factoring in the playoffs.) SE had a few really good teams too, as did the Mid-Atlantic. You just can't take wins and losses by themselves to really mean anything as far as team quality goes.
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OK, this is what I came up with for DI using my magical guess at what the S-value formula might be. I also took some educated guesses at which division hosts might take their bids in--this would be a good place to post if I'm wrong about that, or if you got an autobid and don't plan on attending the ICT, or something like that.
Host bids 1-5 (alphabetical): Brock, Harvard, Iowa, Michigan, UTC
Autobids 6-15 (alphabetical): Berkeley, Brown A, Carleton, Chicago A, Harding, Princeton B, Toronto, USF, UT-Austin, VCU
Invites 16-32 (declining order of S-value): 16. Illinois, 17. Stanford A, 18. Caltech, 19. Chicago B, 20. Rutgers A, 21. Princeton A, 22. UCLA A, 23. Vanderbilt A, 24. Virginia A, 25. Yale, 26. Florida A, 27. Wisconsin, 28. USC, 29. Maryland A, 30. Florida State, 31. Columbia, 32. Amherst
Waitlist: 1. TexasA&M, 2. Ohio State A, 3. Johns Hopkins A, 4. North Carolina, 5. Southern Virginia
I can't do DII yet because, while I was able to approximate the bids from the Iowa DI sectional from rumors and hearsay, DII was far more complicated, so absent Iowa stats I won't attempt it. Plus I don't have any idea how the OSU DII situation will be resolved.
And of course CC SCTs are not done yet.
Host bids 1-5 (alphabetical): Brock, Harvard, Iowa, Michigan, UTC
Autobids 6-15 (alphabetical): Berkeley, Brown A, Carleton, Chicago A, Harding, Princeton B, Toronto, USF, UT-Austin, VCU
Invites 16-32 (declining order of S-value): 16. Illinois, 17. Stanford A, 18. Caltech, 19. Chicago B, 20. Rutgers A, 21. Princeton A, 22. UCLA A, 23. Vanderbilt A, 24. Virginia A, 25. Yale, 26. Florida A, 27. Wisconsin, 28. USC, 29. Maryland A, 30. Florida State, 31. Columbia, 32. Amherst
Waitlist: 1. TexasA&M, 2. Ohio State A, 3. Johns Hopkins A, 4. North Carolina, 5. Southern Virginia
I can't do DII yet because, while I was able to approximate the bids from the Iowa DI sectional from rumors and hearsay, DII was far more complicated, so absent Iowa stats I won't attempt it. Plus I don't have any idea how the OSU DII situation will be resolved.
And of course CC SCTs are not done yet.
Matt Weiner
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
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There was an e-mail sent to SCT hosts that said something along those lines. Anyway, for what it's worth, Oklahoma State's autobid team is DI and we plan on making the trip...Andy Saunders wrote:Brock is taking its autobid in D-II, not D-I; as far as I can tell, Brock and UTC are the only hosts taking their autobid in D-II.
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Technically, Harding does not receive an automatic bid, since there were only three UG teams at the South SCT.Autobids 6-15 (alphabetical): Berkeley, Brown A, Carleton, Chicago A, Harding, Princeton B, Toronto, USF, UT-Austin, VCU
Hence why I used the phrase "perceived strength." I was not meaning to garner any dap for the Southwest region, per se; I was merely stating that that year I thought we were a lock to be invited to the ICT but were not. More to the point, you should not get your hopes up about getting a wild card bid when the whole process is arbitrary, secretive, and based on the perceptions of people who were not at your SCT and know nothing about the teams in said SCT.Not to be a pessimist, but unless you win SCT and get the automatic bid, you should never expect to earn a wild card bid, no matter how good your stats are. Sometimes, stats are just not enough; a lot of it depends on the strength (or perceived strength) of your SCT compared to all the other SCT tournaments. I will give you an example from my own personal experience.
I don't think this is at all true. No disrespect, but the Southwest is a relatively weak region, and you're talking about a year when the Mid-Atlantic was one of the most competitive regions in the nation. I think that if you look at the regions across the country, I'd be surprised if the top 5 teams in the Northeast DII didn't qualify, for example. By the same token, I'm sure Illinois will qualify, as will 2nd and 3rd place finishers from the mid-Atlantic (at least).
Lastly, courtesy of Jeffrey Hill of Rolla, here are the stats from the South SCT in SQBS. (Note that these stats are probably only temporary until OSU posts them.)
<http://www.scobo.net/SCT07/SouthSCT_standings.html>
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Hmm...that's what I thought before someone told me otherwise. With OSU's host bid being in DI, and Brock's and UTC's in D2, Harding is the first team on the waitlist under my calculations.jazzerpoet wrote:Technically, Harding does not receive an automatic bid, since there were only three UG teams at the South SCT.
Matt Weiner
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I thought I would just post my complete S-value ranking with everyone (except the Iowa teams) included so we can all guess for ourselves who gets invited as information comes in about where host bids will be taken and such.
Much like NAQT I will keep my educated guess at the formula's particulars secret. I will continue making adjustments to it based on how well it does or does not match up with the actual invites. I have made further changes since my above posts so this may not match up perfectly.
Predicted D1 field: Auto-qualifers in bold, predicted S-values under my guess formula to the left for comparison purposes.
Princeton B is out of order because they were 36th in S-value but qualified automatically as a UG champion. Chicago C is out of order because as far as I can tell they were an exhibition team? Can someone shed some light on this?
Initial invites:
1 Host Harvard
2 Host Iowa
3 Host Michigan
4 Host Oklahoma State
5 4.758 Brown A
6 4.692 Chicago A
7 4.539 Berkeley
8 4.438 Illinois
9 4.350 Chicago B
10 4.323 VCU
11 4.304 Stanford A
12 4.157 Caltech
13 3.985 Rutgers A
14 3.857 Princeton A
15 3.787 UCLA A
16 3.706 UT-Austin
17 3.662 Vanderbilt A
18 3.516 Virginia A
19 3.428 USF
20 3.369 Yale
21 3.149 Florida A
22 3.051 USC
23 2.953 Maryland A
24 2.856 Florida State
25 2.797 Columbia
26 2.769 Toronto
27 2.729 Amherst
28 2.661 Harding
29 2.644 TexasA&M
30 2.270 Princeton B
?? ?? Carleton
?? ?? Wisconsin
Waitlist:
31 2.521 Johns Hopkins A
32 2.493 Ohio State A
33 2.379 North Carolina
34 2.301 Virginia B
35 2.290 Southern Virginia
37 2.170 Cornell
38 2.164 UCLA B
39 2.084 UTK A
?? Other Iowa SCT teams
40 2.053 Oklahoma
41 2.020 McGill
42 2.018 Minnesota
43 1.888 Rochester
44 1.854 Case Western
45 1.802 Georgia A
46 1.789 MoRolla
47 1.789 BU
48 1.752 Stanford B
49 1.709 Ottawa
50 1.696 Rutgers B
51 1.524 UL-LA
52 1.397 Tulsa
53 1.389 George Washington
54 1.246 Queen's
55 1.191 Simon Fraser B
56 1.042 Cincinnati A
57 1.033 Simon Fraser A
58 1.026 UTK B
Ineligible:
?? 3.234 Chicago C
Much like NAQT I will keep my educated guess at the formula's particulars secret. I will continue making adjustments to it based on how well it does or does not match up with the actual invites. I have made further changes since my above posts so this may not match up perfectly.
Predicted D1 field: Auto-qualifers in bold, predicted S-values under my guess formula to the left for comparison purposes.
Princeton B is out of order because they were 36th in S-value but qualified automatically as a UG champion. Chicago C is out of order because as far as I can tell they were an exhibition team? Can someone shed some light on this?
Initial invites:
1 Host Harvard
2 Host Iowa
3 Host Michigan
4 Host Oklahoma State
5 4.758 Brown A
6 4.692 Chicago A
7 4.539 Berkeley
8 4.438 Illinois
9 4.350 Chicago B
10 4.323 VCU
11 4.304 Stanford A
12 4.157 Caltech
13 3.985 Rutgers A
14 3.857 Princeton A
15 3.787 UCLA A
16 3.706 UT-Austin
17 3.662 Vanderbilt A
18 3.516 Virginia A
19 3.428 USF
20 3.369 Yale
21 3.149 Florida A
22 3.051 USC
23 2.953 Maryland A
24 2.856 Florida State
25 2.797 Columbia
26 2.769 Toronto
27 2.729 Amherst
28 2.661 Harding
29 2.644 TexasA&M
30 2.270 Princeton B
?? ?? Carleton
?? ?? Wisconsin
Waitlist:
31 2.521 Johns Hopkins A
32 2.493 Ohio State A
33 2.379 North Carolina
34 2.301 Virginia B
35 2.290 Southern Virginia
37 2.170 Cornell
38 2.164 UCLA B
39 2.084 UTK A
?? Other Iowa SCT teams
40 2.053 Oklahoma
41 2.020 McGill
42 2.018 Minnesota
43 1.888 Rochester
44 1.854 Case Western
45 1.802 Georgia A
46 1.789 MoRolla
47 1.789 BU
48 1.752 Stanford B
49 1.709 Ottawa
50 1.696 Rutgers B
51 1.524 UL-LA
52 1.397 Tulsa
53 1.389 George Washington
54 1.246 Queen's
55 1.191 Simon Fraser B
56 1.042 Cincinnati A
57 1.033 Simon Fraser A
58 1.026 UTK B
Ineligible:
?? 3.234 Chicago C
Matt Weiner
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
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They have made it clear that there is no such provision, for good or ill.bsmith wrote:Maryland A qualifies, but not North Carolina, despite UNC finishing with a better record. Does NAQT override the S-value to ensure that a lower-record team doesn't "leapfrog" qualification ahead of a higher-record team at the same SCT?
Matt Weiner
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Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
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OK, I've recalibrated the formula to incorporate an estimated penalty or reward for mixed D1/D2 fields, and I've added the D2 stats from Iowa to do stats for D2.
The new D1 standings:
Field:
1 Host Harvard
2 Host Iowa
3 Host Michigan
4 Host Oklahoma State
5 4.758 Brown A
6 4.692 Chicago A
7 4.438 Illinois
8 4.409 Berkeley
9 4.350 Chicago B
10 4.323 VCU
11 4.186 Stanford A
12 4.058 Caltech
13 3.985 Rutgers A
14 3.857 Princeton A
15 3.706 UT-Austin
16 3.695 UCLA A
17 3.662 Vanderbilt A
18 3.516 Virginia A
19 3.428 USF
20 3.369 Yale
(IE. 3.234 Chicago C)
21 3.149 Florida A
22 2.981 USC
23 2.953 Maryland A
24 2.856 Florida State
25 2.797 Columbia
26 2.769 Toronto
27 2.729 Amherst
28 2.661 Harding
29 2.644 TexasA&M
?? ?? Carleton
?? ?? Wisconsin
35 2.270 Princeton B
Waitlist:
30 2.521 Johns Hopkins A
31 2.493 Ohio State A
32 2.379 North Carolina
33 2.301 Virginia B
34 2.290 Southern Virginia
36 2.170 Cornell
37 2.117 UCLA B
38 2.084 UTK A
39 2.053 Oklahoma
40 2.020 McGill
?? ?? Other Iowa Teams
41 2.018 Minnesota
42 1.888 Rochester
43 1.854 Case Western
44 1.802 Georgia A
45 1.789 MoRolla
46 1.789 BU
47 1.711 Stanford B
48 1.709 Ottawa
49 1.696 Rutgers B
50 1.524 UL-LA
51 1.397 Tulsa
52 1.389 George Washington
53 1.246 Queen's
54 1.202 Simon Fraser B
55 1.042 Cincinnati A
56 1.033 Simon Fraser A
57 1.026 UTK B
The new D1 standings:
Field:
1 Host Harvard
2 Host Iowa
3 Host Michigan
4 Host Oklahoma State
5 4.758 Brown A
6 4.692 Chicago A
7 4.438 Illinois
8 4.409 Berkeley
9 4.350 Chicago B
10 4.323 VCU
11 4.186 Stanford A
12 4.058 Caltech
13 3.985 Rutgers A
14 3.857 Princeton A
15 3.706 UT-Austin
16 3.695 UCLA A
17 3.662 Vanderbilt A
18 3.516 Virginia A
19 3.428 USF
20 3.369 Yale
(IE. 3.234 Chicago C)
21 3.149 Florida A
22 2.981 USC
23 2.953 Maryland A
24 2.856 Florida State
25 2.797 Columbia
26 2.769 Toronto
27 2.729 Amherst
28 2.661 Harding
29 2.644 TexasA&M
?? ?? Carleton
?? ?? Wisconsin
35 2.270 Princeton B
Waitlist:
30 2.521 Johns Hopkins A
31 2.493 Ohio State A
32 2.379 North Carolina
33 2.301 Virginia B
34 2.290 Southern Virginia
36 2.170 Cornell
37 2.117 UCLA B
38 2.084 UTK A
39 2.053 Oklahoma
40 2.020 McGill
?? ?? Other Iowa Teams
41 2.018 Minnesota
42 1.888 Rochester
43 1.854 Case Western
44 1.802 Georgia A
45 1.789 MoRolla
46 1.789 BU
47 1.711 Stanford B
48 1.709 Ottawa
49 1.696 Rutgers B
50 1.524 UL-LA
51 1.397 Tulsa
52 1.389 George Washington
53 1.246 Queen's
54 1.202 Simon Fraser B
55 1.042 Cincinnati A
56 1.033 Simon Fraser A
57 1.026 UTK B
Matt Weiner
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
- Matt Weiner
- Sin
- Posts: 8148
- Joined: Fri Apr 11, 2003 8:34 pm
- Location: Richmond, VA
D2 standings:
Autobids in bold.
This assumes that no one gets an autobid from Oklahoma State--note that none of the teams involved in the tie would qualify otherwise. If the top S-value team involved in the tie, Oklahoma C, gets an autobid, then Dartmouth B drops to the waitlist. If all three teams in the tie get autobids, then Vanderbilt B, McGill A, and Dartmouth B drop to the waitlist. WUSTL A qualifies no matter what because they won their sectional.
Field:
1 Host Irvine
2 Host Brock
3 Host UTC
4 4.766 Maryland B
5 4.678 MIT
6 4.392 Toronto A
7 4.258 Drake A
8 4.255 Harvard
9 4.227 Chicago D
10 4.102 Yale B
11 4.066 Alabama A
12 4.041 Illinois A
13 4.026 Dartmouth A
14 3.966 Saint Olaf A
15 3.809 Johns Hopkins B
16 3.733 Florida B
17 3.705 Virginia Tech A
18 3.643 Brown B
19 3.572 Georgia B
20 3.546 Minnesota
21 3.538 Vanderbilt B
22 3.520 McGill A
23 3.518 Dartmouth B
24 3.515 WUSTL A
Waitlist:
25 3.511 Chicago E
26 3.249 Truman State A
27 3.239 Toronto B
28 3.194 Princeton C
29 3.154 Northwestern A
30 3.150 Carleton A
31 3.135 OklahomaC
32 3.134 Brandeis
33 3.104 Case Western
34 3.102 William and Mary
35 3.096 Macalaster
36 3.006 Carnegie Mellon
37 2.948 Wilfrid Laurier A
38 2.934 Florida C
39 2.916 Illinois B
40 2.891 OklahomaB
41 2.845 Wisconsin A
42 2.830 Villanova A
43 2.829 Ohio State B
44 2.716 Rochester A
45 2.713 Virginia C
46 2.691 Washington C
47 2.686 Cornell University
48 2.685 MoRolla
49 2.673 Michigan State
50 2.655 Miss State
51 2.637 McMaster A
52 2.535 TulsaB
53 2.534 TulsaC
54 2.530 KansasStateA
55 2.506 WUSTL B
56 2.503 Toronto C
57 2.467 Stanford
58 2.456 Berry
59 2.431 Georgia C
60 2.417 Drake B
61 2.414 Hendrix
62 2.403 Villanova B
63 2.379 Wisconsin B
64 2.348 Bowling Green
65 2.347 Cincinnati B
66 2.336 HardingA
67 2.326 Alabama B
68 2.318 Virginia Tech B
69 2.316 Northwestern B
70 2.315 NYU
71 2.247 Texas-DallasA
72 2.235 Iowa State
73 2.222 Yale C
74 2.163 BC
75 2.125 HardingB
76 2.051 Grinnell
77 1.962 SWOkState
78 1.943 Emory
79 1.882 Wilfrid Laurier B
80 1.865 Carleton B
81 1.855 KansasStateB
82 1.846 McMaster C
83 1.817 USC
84 1.805 Saint Olaf B
85 1.804 McMaster B
86 1.769 UT-Austin
87 1.724 McGill University B
88 1.712 Berkeley
89 1.708 Olin
90 1.689 Truman State B
91 1.625 British Columbia
92 1.452 Texas-DallsB
93 1.445 Penn
94 1.443 Chicago F
95 1.213 Alabama C
96 1.180 TexasA&M
97 1.157 Rochester B
98 1.068 Shorter
Autobids in bold.
This assumes that no one gets an autobid from Oklahoma State--note that none of the teams involved in the tie would qualify otherwise. If the top S-value team involved in the tie, Oklahoma C, gets an autobid, then Dartmouth B drops to the waitlist. If all three teams in the tie get autobids, then Vanderbilt B, McGill A, and Dartmouth B drop to the waitlist. WUSTL A qualifies no matter what because they won their sectional.
Field:
1 Host Irvine
2 Host Brock
3 Host UTC
4 4.766 Maryland B
5 4.678 MIT
6 4.392 Toronto A
7 4.258 Drake A
8 4.255 Harvard
9 4.227 Chicago D
10 4.102 Yale B
11 4.066 Alabama A
12 4.041 Illinois A
13 4.026 Dartmouth A
14 3.966 Saint Olaf A
15 3.809 Johns Hopkins B
16 3.733 Florida B
17 3.705 Virginia Tech A
18 3.643 Brown B
19 3.572 Georgia B
20 3.546 Minnesota
21 3.538 Vanderbilt B
22 3.520 McGill A
23 3.518 Dartmouth B
24 3.515 WUSTL A
Waitlist:
25 3.511 Chicago E
26 3.249 Truman State A
27 3.239 Toronto B
28 3.194 Princeton C
29 3.154 Northwestern A
30 3.150 Carleton A
31 3.135 OklahomaC
32 3.134 Brandeis
33 3.104 Case Western
34 3.102 William and Mary
35 3.096 Macalaster
36 3.006 Carnegie Mellon
37 2.948 Wilfrid Laurier A
38 2.934 Florida C
39 2.916 Illinois B
40 2.891 OklahomaB
41 2.845 Wisconsin A
42 2.830 Villanova A
43 2.829 Ohio State B
44 2.716 Rochester A
45 2.713 Virginia C
46 2.691 Washington C
47 2.686 Cornell University
48 2.685 MoRolla
49 2.673 Michigan State
50 2.655 Miss State
51 2.637 McMaster A
52 2.535 TulsaB
53 2.534 TulsaC
54 2.530 KansasStateA
55 2.506 WUSTL B
56 2.503 Toronto C
57 2.467 Stanford
58 2.456 Berry
59 2.431 Georgia C
60 2.417 Drake B
61 2.414 Hendrix
62 2.403 Villanova B
63 2.379 Wisconsin B
64 2.348 Bowling Green
65 2.347 Cincinnati B
66 2.336 HardingA
67 2.326 Alabama B
68 2.318 Virginia Tech B
69 2.316 Northwestern B
70 2.315 NYU
71 2.247 Texas-DallasA
72 2.235 Iowa State
73 2.222 Yale C
74 2.163 BC
75 2.125 HardingB
76 2.051 Grinnell
77 1.962 SWOkState
78 1.943 Emory
79 1.882 Wilfrid Laurier B
80 1.865 Carleton B
81 1.855 KansasStateB
82 1.846 McMaster C
83 1.817 USC
84 1.805 Saint Olaf B
85 1.804 McMaster B
86 1.769 UT-Austin
87 1.724 McGill University B
88 1.712 Berkeley
89 1.708 Olin
90 1.689 Truman State B
91 1.625 British Columbia
92 1.452 Texas-DallsB
93 1.445 Penn
94 1.443 Chicago F
95 1.213 Alabama C
96 1.180 TexasA&M
97 1.157 Rochester B
98 1.068 Shorter
Matt Weiner
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
Advisor to Quizbowl at Virginia Commonwealth University / Founder of hsquizbowl.org
- jonpin
- Auron
- Posts: 2266
- Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 6:45 pm
- Location: BCA NJ / WUSTL MO / Hackensack NJ
Since they may slightly influence the rankings (but probably not in any meaningful way), here are stats for Division II teams Ill-A, WU-A, and Drake-A with their final games added in (NAQT counts full-game on-the-clock tiebreakers for their purposes if I'm not mistaken).
WU's stock almost goes down, except for the automatic bid part, as their PPTU go down .6, while their Power% ticks up a bit as does their bonus conversion.
Illinois-A's PPTU goes down about .5, and their bonus conversion .3, but their power% goes up .3%.
Drake's stats are essentially the same and still VERY impressive.
It's been pretty well documented that the Big Three stats are bonus conversion, power percentage, and PPTU to varying extents, right?
Code: Select all
Team Name W-L Win% 15 10 -5 Pts/TU Power% Pts/B
WUSTL-A 13-1 .929 22 112 27 13.066 8.03% 16.90
Illinois-A 12-2 .857 37 111 48 14.639 13.36% 17.77
Drake-A 11-2 .846 25 125 19 18.272 10.16% 19.77
Illinois-A's PPTU goes down about .5, and their bonus conversion .3, but their power% goes up .3%.
Drake's stats are essentially the same and still VERY impressive.
It's been pretty well documented that the Big Three stats are bonus conversion, power percentage, and PPTU to varying extents, right?
- jonpin
- Auron
- Posts: 2266
- Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 6:45 pm
- Location: BCA NJ / WUSTL MO / Hackensack NJ
Stanford does NOT get an auto-bid for winning D2 in the combined field, because there were only three D2 teams (which is why there was a combined field).cvdwightw wrote:Stanford D2 gets an auto-bid for winning the D2 title in the combined field. Not sure how NAQT is going to compensate for having to play on a D1 set against D1 players to judge any wild-card chances for USC or Berkeley.
- Zip Zap Rap Pants
- Yuna
- Posts: 780
- Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 12:55 am
- Location: Richmond/Williamsburg, VA
- Contact:
When does NAQT normally send out the invites? Late this month right?
Also, don't forget that for DI there are 1-2 automatic spots for British champions, though the Brits haven't taken advantage of them for 3-4 years anyway...
Also, don't forget that for DI there are 1-2 automatic spots for British champions, though the Brits haven't taken advantage of them for 3-4 years anyway...
Matt Morrison, William & Mary '10, Tour Guide &c., MA in History '12?
"All the cool people eat mangoes while they smoke blunts and do cannonballs off a trampoline into my hot tub..."
-Matt Weiner
“In beer there is strength,
In wine is wisdom,
In water is germs.”
-Unknown
new email: mpmorr at email dot wm dot edu
"All the cool people eat mangoes while they smoke blunts and do cannonballs off a trampoline into my hot tub..."
-Matt Weiner
“In beer there is strength,
In wine is wisdom,
In water is germs.”
-Unknown
new email: mpmorr at email dot wm dot edu
Not quite.jonpin wrote:It's been pretty well documented that the Big Three stats are bonus conversion, power percentage, and PPTU to varying extents, right?
NAQT wrote:NAQT does not release the formula for the S-value, but it combines statistical measures of tossup performance and bonus performance and includes corrections for opponent strength.
It is always better to win, even if this puts you into a higher (and harder) playoff bracket, and it is always better to convert a tossup, given the opportunity, and to convert bonus points, given the opportunity. Tossup statistics are computed per tossup heard (and bonus statistics per bonus heard), so there is no benefit to running up the score by trying to rush through a huge number of tossups near the end of a game.
samer dot ismail -at- gmail dot com / Samer Ismail, PACE co-founder, NAQT editor
- nobthehobbit
- Rikku
- Posts: 293
- Joined: Sun Feb 19, 2006 1:18 am
Just for reference, the link I posted earlier for PNW Sectionals stats will soon be dead; use this link instead:
http://www.ams.ubc.ca/clubs/qbc/stats/N ... dings.html
Thanks.
http://www.ams.ubc.ca/clubs/qbc/stats/N ... dings.html
Thanks.