ICT bid prediction

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ICT bid prediction

Post by Matt Weiner » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:44 am

I'll be making an attempt to crack the code once all the stats are up and Regionals is shipped off to the hosts. Anyone else have any insights? Hosts, autobid winners, and people who are confident that they qualified, can you tell us what division you are taking host bids in and otherwise whether you plan on attending?

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Re: ICT bid prediction

Post by The Time Keeper » Wed Feb 13, 2008 9:58 am

Matt Weiner wrote:I'll be making an attempt to crack the code once all the stats are up
Matt Weiner wrote:Anyone else have any insights?
You're not gonna do it right.

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Post by walter12 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:09 am

Although the North stats have yet to be posted, I can almost guarantee that at least four teams will be qualifying for nats from our section. Carleton and Iowa both received automatic bids; Minnesota and Drake were also extremely competitive and put up comparable (if not better stats), which I think were floating around 17 ppb and 300 ppg before the playoff rounds. North Dakota (i.e.- Pat Hope solo) probably also deserves a bid, but had a slughtly lower ppb and may be adversely affected via his failure to qualify for the 4 team championship tier (thus hurting his strength of schedule by playing weaker teams in his playoff rounds).

Also, I seem to remember Hentzel saying that nats bids would be sent out within 72 hours of the SCT tourneys. But maybe I've just gone completely insane.
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Post by Gautam » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:38 am

walter12 wrote:Also, I seem to remember Hentzel saying that nats bids would be sent out within 72 hours of the SCT tourneys. But maybe I've just gone completely insane.
I comfirm this statement.. you're not insane :wink:

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Post by ValenciaQBowl » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:59 am

Not that most folks here care, but I posted some predictions for CCs on our juco site, and I've pasted those speculations here. I might be interested in anyone's thoughts on the weight given head-to-head results versus stats, though (and, of course, any gross errors you think I might be making):

First, we know that five CC
teams, having won the SCTs, are in: Pratt CC (KS), Coppiah-Lincoln
(MS), Valencia, Chipola, and Gulf Coast. Not that it matters for
getting to ICT, but Chipola had the best bonus conversion and PPTH,
so they're a good choice for early favorite. NOTE: teams are ranked by PPTH, though that's just for order's sake:

School PPTH P/B Won/Loss SCT
Broward 10.91 14.11 9-3 Florida (4th)
Faulkner 10.98 13.60 6-3 Bama (4th)
Ga. Perim. 9.52 13.71 9-3 Georgia (2nd)
Bevill St 9.51 11.98 7-2 Bama (3rd)
NE Miss 9.38 13.27 8-3 Miss (2nd)
Pensacola 9.03 12.53 7-2 Bama (2nd)
North FL 9.00 11.36 11-1* FL (2nd)
Lake Sumter 8.07 12.69 9-3 Florida (3rd)

*NFCC was 11-2 if one includes the championship game vs. Valencia

What's most interesting to me, and what will probably be tough for
NAQT (but they have a system), is that North Florida, who finished
second in Florida to Valencia, and lost only to Valencia (twice),
beating Broward and Lake Sumter, is so low on the list
statistically. How much NAQT weights won-loss record and overall
finish place I don't know, but it has to matter. Broward is the best
on numbers, but finished FOURTH in Florida.

Anyway, here's my guess: Georgia Perimeter gets in with good stats
and a second overall finish. North Florida squeaks in on the grace
of its h2h wins over Broward and Lake Sumter. And Broward gets in as
the last wild card. Unless of course it's Faulkner. But I think it's
out of those four. Still, what do I know?

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Post by samer » Wed Feb 13, 2008 2:14 pm

ValenciaQBowl wrote:Not that most folks here care, but I posted some predictions for CCs on our juco site, and I've pasted those speculations here. I might be interested in anyone's thoughts on the weight given head-to-head results versus stats, though (and, of course, any gross errors you think I might be making):
One point I'll make, for the record: unless NAQT has drastically overhauled the selection criteria, the primary factors used in making the decision are tossup points (not total points) per tossup heard, and bonus points per bonus heard. (The distinction is because TUPPTH depends significantly on your opponents, while it should have much less of an effect on BPPTH.)
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Post by alkrav112 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 4:25 pm

What about this whole Div II circle-of-death business in Chicago? Wash U has an auto-bid, but (and I'm biased), I think Michigan has the most interesting case of all these.

1 Lawrence 11-3 366.7 18.87
2 Wash U 11-3 277.9 16.54
3 NW A 11-3 273.6 16.01
4 Chicago 11-3 273.2 15.68
5 Michigan A 11-3 269.3 15.20

Do they all get bids? Does Lawrence, who finished T-3 but has clearly superior stats, get in ahead of a Michigan team who beat them in the playoff series?

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Post by NoahMinkCHS » Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:18 pm

I'm curious how the Southeast Div. 1 teams will shake out. Of the five teams in the upper bracket, Vandy (D1 winner) and UGA A (UG winner) should get in automatically. Of the other three, UF A and UTC have virtually the same bonus conversion, but finished 2 and 3 games (respectively) behind FSU, which had lower BC but more PPTH and considerably more powers (if that matters). I'd like to see all of them qualify, because I can't imagine how you could fairly draw a line there.

If TUPPTH is, indeed, a major factor, that might help somewhat. I calculated those to be:
FSU 5.43
UF 4.71
UTC 3.87

I, too, wish the formula would reveal its secrets...

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Post by jhn31 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 5:28 pm

I assume there's some kind of strength of schedule multiplier also?

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Post by theMoMA » Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:35 pm

I've developed an S-Value approximation of my own, and will be putting it to the test as soon as I get stats from the North division.

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Post by Strongside » Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:51 pm

Here are my ICT Predictions for D1. I am not going to bother doing predictions for D2. All teams are A teams unless otherwise indicated. I didn’t use any statistical method for these predictions, I just picked them looking at the stats.

I am assuming all the D1 hosts that received an automatic bid will accept it. If not, then a team on the waiting list moves up. Since it appears that nobody on the forums knows for sure what happened with the Northwest Sectional, I gave UBC an automatic bid, but didn’t reserve a bid for any other team from that sectional.

It seems that NAQT reserves a spot for a British team that goes to a team on the waiting list if there is no British team at the ICT.


Division 1 Host (Automatic): 8

Carleton (Canada)
VA Tech
Pittsburgh
UChicago
Brown
UBC
Alabama
Cal-Berkeley

Division 1 Automatic Bid: 11

Maryland
Maryland
Illinois
Harding
UNC
Vanderbilt
Toronto
Iowa
Carleton College (Minnesota)
UGA
Stanford B

Division 1 Wildcard in order of descending bonus conversion, not in order of predicted S-Value. 13

Stanford A
Harvard A (Automatic Bid????)
Florida
Williams (Automatic Bid????)
UCI
UTC
Harvard B
Rutgers
FSU
Princeton
Drake???
Minnesota???
(British Team) ???

Waiting List (in order):

1. North Dakota
2. Dartmouth
3. MIT
4. UCLA
5. WashU

It appears on first glance that qualifying for this year’s ICT will be more difficult than last year. Every team in the wildcard list averaged at least 15 points per bonus. Also, the abnormally high number of teams that declined last year played a role. Since no Undergraduate final was played between Harvard A and Williams, I did not give either school an automatic bid, but it looks as if both schools will almost certainly get an at-large bid.
Last edited by Strongside on Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Matt Weiner » Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:57 pm

Harvard A should have gotten an autobid as the top all-UG team in a field with 4+ UG teams. Incidentally, my preliminary calculations show that half of Maryland A, Harvard A, and Williams were the top three teams in the country, in that order--quite a strong Sectional at Brown.

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Post by Skepticism and Animal Feed » Wed Feb 13, 2008 6:59 pm

Matt Weiner wrote:Harvard A should have gotten an autobid as the top all-UG team in a field with 4+ UG teams. Incidentally, my preliminary calculations show that half of Maryland A, Harvard A, and Williams were the top three teams in the country, in that order--quite a strong Sectional at Brown.
I don't think Harvard was the top UG team by NAQT rules. There should have been a 1-game playoff between Harvard and Williams that did not take place
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Post by jazzerpoet » Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:01 pm

We (Tulsa) are taking our host bid in DII, as I am the only active DI player left.

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Post by Matt Weiner » Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:03 pm

Bruce wrote:I don't think Harvard was the top UG team by NAQT rules. There should have been a 1-game playoff between Harvard and Williams that did not take place
Ah, I must have missed that. Luckily, Harvard and Williams will both more than qualify anyhow, so it won't affect anything.

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Post by jhn31 » Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:20 pm

anyone want to take a crack at picking d2?

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Post by theMoMA » Wed Feb 13, 2008 7:22 pm

I'll post mine as soon as the last stats come in. So far, I have Stanford, UCI, and Williams as the top three teams for at-large bids. I gave Harvard an autobid, as it seems fairest, but they would be the #3 at-large qualifier regardless.

Overall, my stat most highly rewards: Maryland, Stanford B, Illinois, and Vanderbilt, in that order, a ways ahead of the rest of the autobid teams and at-large hopefuls.

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Post by Kyle » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:33 pm

As posted in the Brown thread: we tied Williams. We finished with the same record and split our games against each other (1-1). And it doesn't matter whether you give us an automatic bid because of our slightly higher bonus conversion because both teams will get bids.

I find it very hard to believe that half of Maryland, Harvard, and Williams were the top three teams in the country — perhaps since better teams were hosting it might seem that way — but there is no question that the D1 field at Brown was outstanding. I believe the northeast D2 field last year got 7 bids. All of those teams played D1 this year. It really wouldn't shock me if the northeast region produced 7 or 8 D1 bids this year.

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Post by cvdwightw » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:39 pm

theMoMA wrote:I'll post mine as soon as the last stats come in. So far, I have Stanford, UCI, and Williams as the top three teams for at-large bids. I gave Harvard an autobid, as it seems fairest, but they would be the #3 at-large qualifier regardless.

Overall, my stat most highly rewards: Maryland, Stanford B, Illinois, and Vanderbilt, in that order, a ways ahead of the rest of the autobid teams and at-large hopefuls.
I'd put those four teams, along with auto-bid Brown and Chicago, as practical guarantees to make the top bracket at ICT and would be extremely disappointed if NAQT chose to throw three of them together.

Assuming Stanford sends some combination of its two teams and doesn't actually use two D1 bids, and the same happens for Maryland, I think the wild card order could be very interesting with respect to empirical evidence for the S-value. I think we're more or less in agreement that all the teams with bonus conversions over, say, 15.5 are almost certainly going to make it as at-large. It will be interesting to see how NAQT handles teams with similar statistical profiles but very different win-loss records and strength of schedule. Specifically, how much is a poor win-loss record (UCLA), bracket assignment/overall finish (North Dakota, assuming their bonus conversion is in the 13-15 range, MIT, and Dartmouth), or strength of schedule (WashU) going to hurt teams when determining the S-Value? I think it's pretty safe to say that there's no teams after North Dakota worth worrying about that we haven't seen the stats for, and after those five teams, there's a pretty steep drop to Rochester, who seems comfortably by themselves, and then another drop to a bunch of teams in the 10-11 ppb range each with various arguments as to why their S-value should be higher than other teams'.

So I don't know that people would be able to "correctly" predict bids this year; however, the specific order of the five aforementioned teams and then the order of teams being moved onto the waitlist could provide some great empirical evidence to form a model that could be tested on next year's data.

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Post by pray for elves » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:30 am

cvdwightw wrote:I'd put those four teams, along with auto-bid Brown and Chicago, as practical guarantees to make the top bracket at ICT and would be extremely disappointed if NAQT chose to throw three of them together.
Be careful with Brown, as their A-team regulars are all unsure if they will go to ICT.

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Post by Matt Weiner » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:31 am

DeisEvan wrote:Be careful with Brown, as their A-team regulars are all unsure if they will go to ICT.
I'll believe THAT when I see it.

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Post by vandyhawk » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:33 am

theMoMA wrote:Overall, my stat most highly rewards: Maryland, Stanford B, Illinois, and Vanderbilt, in that order, a ways ahead of the rest of the autobid teams and at-large hopefuls.
We always seem to find a way to fail miserably at ICT. SCT was the first time we've played as the best 4-person team possible, though, and this should be the best team built for NAQT we've had. That said though, see my first sentence and standings from '05 and '06 (last year doesn't count since we didn't have Paul).

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Post by cornfused » Thu Feb 14, 2008 1:48 am

alkrav112 wrote:What about this whole Div II circle-of-death business in Chicago? Wash U has an auto-bid, but (and I'm biased), I think Michigan has the most interesting case of all these.

1 Lawrence 11-3 366.7 18.87
2 Wash U 11-3 277.9 16.54
3 NW A 11-3 273.6 16.01
4 Chicago 11-3 273.2 15.68
5 Michigan A 11-3 269.3 15.20

Do they all get bids? Does Lawrence, who finished T-3 but has clearly superior stats, get in ahead of a Michigan team who beat them in the playoff series?
O MYSTERIOUS FORMULA, REVEAL YOUR SECRETS.
Yes. Lawrence finished at the top (or tied for it) in EVERY statistical category, if you only look at over-.500 teams for least negs. We lost our three games by a total of 60 points... no doubt in my mind we get a bid. And I can't see NAQT counting that playoff series, as it was played on 8/8 games.

That being said, I think Michigan - actually, each of those five teams - deserves a spot.

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Post by johnboy81918 » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:06 am

Greg, you guys should definitely get a bid, you really deserve it :)
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Post by cornfused » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:12 am

And we won't be taking it... our team totals among players who can go to ICT: one power, one neg.



So, um, actually I kinda hope we don't get a bid. But that's not gonna happen.

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Post by theMoMA » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:51 am

In case anyone's curious, my magical formula tells me that (before teams from the North sectional are included), of the 14 at-large spots that seem to be available:

#2 Lawrence
#8 Michigan
#9 Northwestern
#11 Chicago

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Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:54 am

You probably knew this already, but I'm pretty sure that means you have to play division 1 next year if you qualify.
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Post by cornfused » Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:03 am

Oh no, whatever shall I do. Yep, I knew that...



EDIT: Andrew, who was #1?

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Post by theMoMA » Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:25 am

#1 overall was Dartmouth, but they won their tournament. The best team that didn't win their SCT in DII was, according to my stats, Cornell A.

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Post by Jeremy Gibbs Lemma » Thu Feb 14, 2008 6:55 am

Cornell put up some very nice stats indeed. That really sucks that you won't be able to come, Greg. I think someone mentioned to me why that is but .... I forget because it is quite late and I still haven't slept.

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Post by Skepticism and Animal Feed » Thu Feb 14, 2008 10:39 am

http://www.naqt.com/ict/2008/invitations-di.html

I'm pretty sure that list is from last year, though.
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Post by pray for elves » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:02 pm

Bruce wrote:http://www.naqt.com/ict/2008/invitations-di.html

I'm pretty sure that list is from last year, though.
It's definitely last year, as Yale is listed as qualifying when they didn't play at SCT this year.

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Post by AKKOLADE » Thu Feb 14, 2008 12:11 pm

Plus, people would actually know who was going if people had accepted and rejected bids already.
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Post by grapesmoker » Thu Feb 14, 2008 2:18 pm

DeisEvan wrote:
cvdwightw wrote:I'd put those four teams, along with auto-bid Brown and Chicago, as practical guarantees to make the top bracket at ICT and would be extremely disappointed if NAQT chose to throw three of them together.
Be careful with Brown, as their A-team regulars are all unsure if they will go to ICT.
As one of those A-team regulars, I'm confident in saying that Brown will be bringing a full A-team contingent to ICT.
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british team

Post by hip swivels » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:38 pm

I'm spending the year at Oxford, and, from what I've seen of the Quiz Team here, there is very little chance that any British teams are coming. Extracurricular activities like Quiz Team don't get any money from the university; I think the team account has something like 112 pounds in it.

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Re: british team

Post by grapesmoker » Thu Feb 14, 2008 4:42 pm

hip swivels wrote:I'm spending the year at Oxford, and, from what I've seen of the Quiz Team here, there is very little chance that any British teams are coming. Extracurricular activities like Quiz Team don't get any money from the university; I think the team account has something like 112 pounds in it.
That's like $1000 at today's exchange rates!
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Post by Sima Guang Hater » Thu Feb 14, 2008 7:16 pm

grapesmoker wrote:
DeisEvan wrote:
cvdwightw wrote:I'd put those four teams, along with auto-bid Brown and Chicago, as practical guarantees to make the top bracket at ICT and would be extremely disappointed if NAQT chose to throw three of them together.
Be careful with Brown, as their A-team regulars are all unsure if they will go to ICT.
As one of those A-team regulars, I'm confident in saying that Brown will be bringing a full A-team contingent to ICT.
Goddamn it Jerry what happened to strategic ambiguity.

Lets just hope they don't put us, Maryland, and Chicago in the same bracket.
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Post by grapesmoker » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:41 pm

ToStrikeInfinitely wrote:Goddamn it Jerry what happened to strategic ambiguity.

Lets just hope they don't put us, Maryland, and Chicago in the same bracket.
oh noes i have revealed state secrets
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Post by grapesmoker » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:41 pm

hay guyz, the brown ict a-team will be aaron rosenberg flanked by 3 wheels of cheese, honest
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Post by Matt Weiner » Thu Feb 14, 2008 11:46 pm

grapesmoker wrote:hay guyz, the brown ict a-team will be aaron rosenberg flanked by 3 wheels of cheese, honest
let's crack the formula for the whey value

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Post by AKKOLADE » Fri Feb 15, 2008 8:31 am

Will anyone actually be driving the wheels of cheese?
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