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MSNCT predictions

Posted: Fri May 03, 2019 6:22 pm
by Vembanad
There's a lot of meta-analysis of High School teams -- in fact, one might argue that there's too much -- but I've noticed that there's not much analysis of Middle School teams, at least not here on the forums. So, I was wondering if people had any thoughts/predictions for Middle School Nationals.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 05, 2019 9:01 pm
by UhrmanRL
Interested. I saw rankings before last year’s MSNCT, but they didn’t post until a day before the event (as I recall).

Is anyone planning to rank the registered 174 teams?

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 05, 2019 10:10 pm
by db0wman
Challenger-Almaden, Churchill, and Hopkins seem like the top contenders.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 9:02 am
by Romanos I Lekapenos
I think either Challenger-Almaden or Churchill will win. Teams to watch out for are probably Hunter, Hopkins, Midtown (I know), Aptakisic, Quest, and Barrington.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:47 am
by karsten7814
I think Arin is an amazing player, but a team based on one player's performance can go downhill swiftly in the case of even one bad packet. I think Hunter A, who has several incredible players (specialists?), has a better chance of winning on an IS set, as 2/4 of their A team was on the team that won NHBB and they seem to have great depth.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 11:20 am
by Romanos I Lekapenos
This (https://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament/t ... _id=165342) performance from Churchill seems to point to good things at MSNCT. Also this (https://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament/t ... _id=157752) from a (mostly middle school) Hunter C.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:49 pm
by CPiGuy
karsten7814 wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 10:47 am I think Arin is an amazing player, but a team based on one player's performance can go downhill swiftly in the case of even one bad packet.
Karsten is correct here. Arin will almost surely be top overall scorer, but packet variance is a real thing and I would not be surprised to see Challenger-Almaden lose to even a supposedly inferior team.

Hunter is very good; two of their players were apparently on the team that won JV NHBB, and their top scorer placed very highly at IPNCT.

Odle (aka Pavan Venkatakrishnan and friends), I think, will probably do quite well. Pavan is extremely good at NAQT questions, being a very good current events player, and is a reasonably strong generalist. I haven't seen them mentioned yet and I think they deserve to be, as they've put up some disgusting stats (admittedly in the somewhat weaker Washington circuit).

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 9:29 pm
by the return of AHAN
I'll just say I'm flattered that Barrington Station was even mentioned. No one has mentioned Baldwin, but I've been pretty impressed with Jordan when I've read packets for MS Discord. Pavan of Odle is generating buzz, too, from soloing,against IL State Champs, Daniel Wright, and winning. I'd say it's a coin-toss that it'll be an all-California championship, though no one really knows how the new, more difficult Sunday playoffs are going to play out.
As far as Arin possibly flaming out on a bad packet, just remember last year's champ played solo, though he was an 8th grader.
But the Barrington kids are looking forward to it!

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 06, 2019 9:36 pm
by the return of AHAN
theclassicsguy wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 11:20 am This (https://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament/t ... _id=165342) performance from Churchill seems to point to good things at MSNCT.
WHOA! Churchill A had an ungodly power rate for an IS set. Just pencil them in for the Super Six right now.

EDIT: My Super Six, in no particular order;

Churchill A, Challenger Almaden, Aptakisic, Longfellow A, Odle, Stratford Sunnyvale

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 8:10 am
by karsten7814
the return of AHAN wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 9:29 pm As far as Arin possibly flaming out on a bad packet, just remember last year's champ played solo, though he was an 8th grader
Indeed, but he was an 8th grader playing a MS set, as opposed to a 6th grader playing an IS set. Arin is a lovely kid and an amazing player, but there's a solid chance that there's a packet that doesn't play to his specialties or he gets beaten by a more balanced team. The issue with being a generalist of this caliber is that it's quite difficult to scale to IS reasonably well on everything. I'd say my Super Six are Hunter A, Challenger Almaden, Churchill A, Hopkins A, Quest A, and Aptakisic.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 11:09 am
by the return of AHAN
Quest is an obvious choice, given Rohan G's performance at IPNCT, but I'm dubious of whether he can defeat teams of 4 with balanced scoring and knowledge, round after round, on Sunday. For that, he's going to need consistent support from, for example, Mateo and Brady in the form of 20 PPG.
Aptakisic, OTOH, has shown there isn't much fall-off when Aadit isn't around (see Spring Gladiator Open results), thus I'm more optimistic they'll last longer on Sunday.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 7:06 pm
by iarehavethestupid
I think Liberty maybe be poised to make a decently deep run this year. We have 4 solid specialists in their categories, and our weaknesses are covered up by the distribution. Sadly, we have not played an HS set this year, which will definitely hurt us in terms of experience, although HS level practice questions help shore this up. The best I can find are these SCOP Novice stats from the beginning of this school year. https://stats.neg5.org/t/tfYp7vjre/14th ... 6bf21d6ef0

Personally, my Super Six are Challenger Almaden, Hunter A, Churchill A, Hopkins A, Longfellow A, and Quest A.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 7:35 pm
by literatureboye
I can attest to the fact that Liberty is nationally contending, as a fellow Alabamian who has played Liberty multiple times. All 3 of the major categories (Literature, History, and Science) are specialized to at least HS Regs level, and will definitely benefit them this year at MSNCT as other teams may not be as familiar with the HS difficulty and canon. Their stats from this year definitely show that they have a chance at winning a title this year.
https://www.naqt.com/stats/school/resul ... g_id=67820
(Note: ASCA (Alabama's QB association) doesn't run powers or negs, and has only 2 part bonuses)

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 8:09 pm
by Vembanad
I'm glad so many people have responded with their thoughts and predictions! I definitely think that this MSNCT could go in a huge number of ways. I'd say my personal top 4 would be Challenger-Almaden, Churchill, Hunter, and Longfellow. (Since "Super Six" now seems to be a thing (though there are generally three teams tied for fifth), I suppose I'd suggest Hopkins and Daniel Wright.)

Challenger-Almaden is in some ways the team to beat. As people have mentioned, one-person teams are definitely subject to more weaknesses than other teams, but a Challenger-Almaden win is certainly within the realm of possibility. Arin Parsa's team put up the highest PPB of any team on any MS set this year (26.38 PPB on MS-29), and Arin's stats (at least as far as PPB is concerned; his power stats haven't changed much) have increased impressively throughout the year. This is a boy who, as a 6th grader, made playoffs in Varsity NHBB Nationals, losing to TJ by less than 100 points, and who won the inaugural MS IPNCT with only one loss. They've had losses throughout the year -- to Stratford-Sunnyvale, Pleasanton Scholars B (which, for a B team, is weirdly good), Hopkins, and Churchill -- but they've also won the last three MS tournaments they've played in and are not to be taken lightly.

Churchill's performance is very frightening. They put up 19.59 PPB on an IS set as Robert pointed out -- I don't believe any Middle School team has ever broken 19 PPB before, not even the Kealing teams which made HSNCT playoffs back in the day. And they did that with a huge number of powers, around 5.5 per game (including one game with 10 powers. How?). Their A-set stats are similarly impressive -- 24.43 PPB. This would appear to make them the top contender, but they haven't always been able to convert these stats into wins. They won one MS tournament with more than 11 powers per game, but against stronger fields, they haven't finished as highly, with losses to Hopkins A (three times), Pleasanton Scholars B, Stratford-Sunnyvale, and their own B team. Interestingly, they are undefeated against Challenger-Almaden. They'll definitely be among the strongest teams in playoffs, which will be more difficult.

Hunter is another strong contender. They also happen to be my own school's team, so I may be a little biased, but I think they have an excellent chance of winning. On first glance their stats might not seem as impressive -- they haven't broken 25 PPB on MS and their 17.60 PPB on IS (that Hunter C team which Robert pointed out was, in fact, entirely middle schoolers), though initially impressive, pales in comparison to Churchill's above. Still, as seems to have been recognized by many, they are very good. They had 4 powers/game on IS (where their opponents, on average, were significantly more difficult than Churchill's) and the earlier mentioned good bonus conversion despite not having an entirely full team. In fact, they haven't played with their nats team at any point yet (their team at Bergen, the only tournament they won, was closest). It's worth noting that Jacob beat both finalists (Arin Parsa, Rohan Ganeshan) in MS IPNCT in their pool game together and was the last undefeated player there, and he is only about half of Hunter's scoring. Jacob and Ian's performances at NHBB (they both made Bee playoffs) speak for their strength in history, in which they'll be quite dominant. They also have a very low neg rate, which should come in handy, especially against neg-heavy California teams.
karsten7814 wrote: Mon May 06, 2019 10:47 am (specialists?)
Sort of, but categories aren't as clearly divided as in, say, Hunter's MSNCT team two years ago.

Longfellow doesn't have too many stats, and their performances on higher level sets (A-sets, for instance) are not at the level of California teams'. Still, they're very good (as Longfellow always is), and I'm sure they've only improved through the year under Mr. Huang's coaching. At their one MS tournament this year, they broke 26 PPB and 10 powers/game, notably getting 16 powers in one game. That's better than their team's performance at their one MS tournament last year, and last year they managed 3rd at MSNCT. So yeah, look out for Longfellow.

The NorCal MS circuit is crazy (at one tournament the team finishing 9th out of 11 broke 24 PPB (https://www.naqt.com/stats/tournament/s ... t_id=10450), and a number of teams could make finals. In approximate order, I'd suggest Hopkins, Pleasanton Scholars (which managed more than 18 PPB on IS), Bret Harte, and Stratford-Sunnyvale are all quite likely to make the top 10 and have reasonable shots at finals.

Looking beyond California... Daniel Wright, which has numerous good players, is the best MS team in Illinois in my view and has numerous good players, giving them a great shot to do well, possibly even winning it all. (Mr. Price, did Odle beat a full Daniel Wright team? In that case, I'd put Odle in my top 10 overall as well. They do seem quite good, but their stats (look at their A-set results) don't seem quite as good as the other teams mentioned.) After that are Aptakisic, Barrington, and Quest Academy. Outside of Illinois, Burleigh Manor is a good team (and is finally going to nationals!) and has beaten Longfellow a good number of times; I'd definitely put them in my top 10. Liberty seems very impressive (I was going to say that before you wrote!) -- in one tournament they reached 27 PPB, though it was on an easier set than NAQT MS -- but they don't have many other statlines to see. St. John's could be a top 10 team; Greenhill is good as well. From the NY region, Tenafly is the strongest non-Hunter team; Middlesex is good as always but doesn't look likely to continue their streak of always reaching the top 10 (now they'll surely prove me wrong). Emerson, from Michigan, is also good. Edmonson County would do very well if they actually went to MSNCT.

I'm sure there are other excellent teams, but I've already written far more than anyone wants to read, so I'll leave it at that.
(And sorry for the very long post -- I like doing in-depth analysis a lot, especially at the MS level where I feel it's often been lacking, but I tend to get a bit... carried away.)

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 9:16 pm
by mk4rpov
Vembanad wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 8:09 pm Mr. Price, did Odle beat a full Daniel Wright team? In that case, I'd put Odle in my top 10 overall as well.
Although I am not Mr. Price, I moderated this match and can attest to the fact that Pavan Venkatakrishnan won solo against a full Daniel Wright.

User has been warned to enable a signature -- mods

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 9:20 pm
by CPiGuy
I guess we're doing the prediction thing so I'll take Aptakisic, Churchill, Challenger-Almaden, Daniel Wright, Hunter, Odle for top six.

My biggest prediction is that at least one of the top six teams will be someone nobody in this thread picked for top six. There's always at least one surprise.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 9:35 pm
by jonah
For the record, trophies will be awarded to the top four teams individually by place, three teams tied for 5th place, five teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 13th place, and twelve teams tied for 21st place. (In other words, it probably makes more sense to talk about top seven than top six.)

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 07, 2019 9:36 pm
by Subotai the Valiant, Final Dog of War
It's worth noting that at IS 181 (which is obviously not the best sample to use, but anyway), Hunter C got 9 tossups out of 20 on High Tech A and West Egg A, while Ian outscored Jacob, showing that he can scale really well.

Analyzing my own young ones, I'd say that they have the benefit of being on an extremely established HS team to guide them and make them very accustomed to playing hard questions against good players. I doubt many MS teams have their players regularly playing against a top 25 HS team on HS nats/regs+ packets. And their two highest scorers also have huge experience in nationals. Ian has led a team into NHBB playoffs before as the lead scorer, Jacob has played through t-8 at MSNCT before, and both of them just passed through the marathon of winning JV History Bowl and finishing in the top 25 prelim seeds in bee. This experience and poise will matter down the stretch of playoffs.

I personally don't trust regular season stats to say much about nats in general, and I'd say that experience, steadiness, perseverance, scaling, and demonstrated pure tossup skill are a lot more relevant than regular season stats once teams are good past a certain level. (This includes regular season category coverage; it can often wildly differ from what a team will actually get against better opponents). I'd say Arin's NHBB run and experience from there would definitely have given him much more of these intangibles and helped him overcome the initial worries and small worries that everyone has; I'd agree with Cerulean that in some senses, Arin is the favorite. While Challenger-Almaden may have gaps, this is much smaller of an issue in MS in terms of the more limited size of the canon. I think Hunter also has many of these traits and is poised to make a deep run as well.

(I'm keeping this analysis only on the best opposing team I see and my own team)

EDIT: And I'll agree with Conor that there will be one big upset that makes it into the top 7. Sets of IS difficulty are highly variable.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 10:44 am
by Abdon Ubidia
jonah wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 9:35 pm For the record, trophies will be awarded to the top four teams individually by place, three teams tied for 5th place, five teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 13th place, and twelve teams tied for 21st place. (In other words, it probably makes more sense to talk about top seven than top six.)
Is this type of information available for the HSNCT?

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Wed May 08, 2019 11:00 am
by jonah
ansonberns wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 10:44 am
jonah wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 9:35 pm For the record, trophies will be awarded to the top four teams individually by place, three teams tied for 5th place, five teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 13th place, and twelve teams tied for 21st place. (In other words, it probably makes more sense to talk about top seven than top six.)
Is this type of information available for the HSNCT?
Not yet (it depends on simulations that we haven't completed yet due to MSNCT planning), but there's a good chance it will be the same as the 2018 HSNCT (places 1–4, three teams tied for 5th place, four teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 12th place, twelve teams tied for 20th place, and nineteen teams tied for 32nd place).

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Thu May 09, 2019 2:56 pm
by UhrmanRL
UhrmanRL wrote: Sun May 05, 2019 9:01 pm Interested. I saw rankings before last year’s MSNCT, but they didn’t post until a day before the event (as I recall).

Is anyone planning to rank the registered 174 teams?
Grogor or any other group planning a pre-rank for MSNCT?

:party:

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Thu May 09, 2019 9:07 pm
by yc0402
So here's the (extremely late) second edition of the MS Ranks based off of a modified Groger formula: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
I apologize for the delay and for releasing these new rankings 2 days before MSNCT, but hopefully this new set will help teams gauge their position before they compete on Saturday.
Note that a lot of teams don't seem as competitive as stated above due to not having played tournaments recently, and the fact that these new ranks only have NAQT MS, so take this with a grain of salt.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Thu May 09, 2019 10:55 pm
by iarehavethestupid
I’m going to shamelessly plug my team and mention that if mACF was included, Liberty would be 5th based on our SCOP performance.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Thu May 09, 2019 11:12 pm
by the return of AHAN
I'll be happily stunned if Station A finishes T-8th. I predict a 6-2 Saturday for us, and a Sunday where we'll win a couple, lose a couple, and then we're done. UNLESS, my efforts to get the kids to scale up in anticipation of harder playoff questions pays off. I mean, I'd love to think we might improve on last year's finish, but the numbers I see out of California MS teams playing high school sets is rather intimidating.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 12, 2019 10:30 pm
by the return of AHAN
iarehavethestupid wrote: Thu May 09, 2019 10:55 pm I’m going to shamelessly plug my team and mention that if mACF was included, Liberty would be 5th based on our SCOP performance.
OOOH. So sorry, but the correct answer was 4th. :wink:

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 12, 2019 10:34 pm
by the return of AHAN
the return of AHAN wrote: Thu May 09, 2019 11:12 pm I'll be happily stunned if Station A finishes T-8th. I predict a 6-2 Saturday for us, and a Sunday where we'll win a couple, lose a couple, and then we're done. UNLESS, my efforts to get the kids to scale up in anticipation of harder playoff questions pays off. I mean, I'd love to think we might improve on last year's finish, but the numbers I see out of California MS teams playing high school sets is rather intimidating.
NAILED IT. Though we had a higher seed to begin with a double bye, so, we did improve on last year's finish, despite essentially having the same Sunday.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 11:48 am
by Joshua Rutsky
CPiGuy wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 9:20 pm I guess we're doing the prediction thing so I'll take Aptakisic, Churchill, Challenger-Almaden, Daniel Wright, Hunter, Odle for top six.

My biggest prediction is that at least one of the top six teams will be someone nobody in this thread picked for top six. There's always at least one surprise.
Well, you got three of the top six, and four of the top 10. I think Liberty qualifies for most people as the surprise, although I think they really flew under the radar because they only competed on NAQT HS sets once. We certainly knew they were capable, but their run into the final four makes them the highest-finishing team in Alabama history at an NAQT National. They were the ONLY team to knock off Hunter A, too.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Mon May 13, 2019 6:12 pm
by iarehavethestupid
Joshua Rutsky wrote: Mon May 13, 2019 11:48 am
CPiGuy wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 9:20 pm I guess we're doing the prediction thing so I'll take Aptakisic, Churchill, Challenger-Almaden, Daniel Wright, Hunter, Odle for top six.

My biggest prediction is that at least one of the top six teams will be someone nobody in this thread picked for top six. There's always at least one surprise.
Well, you got three of the top six, and four of the top 10. I think Liberty qualifies for most people as the surprise, although I think they really flew under the radar because they only competed on NAQT HS sets once. We certainly knew they were capable, but their run into the final four makes them the highest-finishing team in Alabama history at an NAQT National. They were the ONLY team to knock off Hunter A, too.
I don't remember playing an NAQT HS set.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 12:51 pm
by jonah
jonah wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 11:00 am
ansonberns wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 10:44 am
jonah wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 9:35 pmFor the record, trophies will be awarded to the top four teams individually by place, three teams tied for 5th place, five teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 13th place, and twelve teams tied for 21st place. (In other words, it probably makes more sense to talk about top seven than top six.)
Is this type of information available for the HSNCT?
Not yet (it depends on simulations that we haven't completed yet due to MSNCT planning), but there's a good chance it will be the same as the 2018 HSNCT (places 1–4, three teams tied for 5th place, four teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 12th place, twelve teams tied for 20th place, and nineteen teams tied for 32nd place).
This is getting rather far afield from the original purpose of the thread, but since the question was asked here: At the 2019 High School National Championship Tournament…
  • The top four teams will place distinctly and receive trophies accordingly
  • Three teams will tie for fifth place and receive trophies
  • Four teams will tie for eighth place and receive trophies
  • Seven teams will tie for twelfth place and receive trophies
  • Twelve teams will tie for 19th place and receive trophies
  • Eighteen teams will tie for 31st place and receive trophies
  • The next tier will be teams tied for 49th place (no trophies). The number of these teams will depend on how many teams make the playoffs in the winners' bracket, i.e., how many teams go 7–3 or better in the preliminary rounds
  • Subsequent placements will depend on the number of teams that make the playoffs in one or both brackets.

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 1:05 pm
by ryanrosenberg
jonah wrote: Sun May 19, 2019 12:51 pm
jonah wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 11:00 am
ansonberns wrote: Wed May 08, 2019 10:44 am
jonah wrote: Tue May 07, 2019 9:35 pmFor the record, trophies will be awarded to the top four teams individually by place, three teams tied for 5th place, five teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 13th place, and twelve teams tied for 21st place. (In other words, it probably makes more sense to talk about top seven than top six.)
Is this type of information available for the HSNCT?
Not yet (it depends on simulations that we haven't completed yet due to MSNCT planning), but there's a good chance it will be the same as the 2018 HSNCT (places 1–4, three teams tied for 5th place, four teams tied for 8th place, eight teams tied for 12th place, twelve teams tied for 20th place, and nineteen teams tied for 32nd place).
  • Four teams will tie for eighth place and receive trophies
  • Eight teams will tie for twelfth place and receive trophies
  • Twelve teams will tie for 19th place and receive trophies
  • Seventeen teams will tie for 31st place and receive trophies
Shouldn't this be 20th and 32nd place, or seven teams tying for 12th place?

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Sun May 19, 2019 1:11 pm
by jonah
Something else was wrong. Fixed; thanks!

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 8:54 am
by tabstop
jonah wrote: Sun May 19, 2019 1:11 pm Something else was wrong. Fixed; thanks!
I don't think that actually addresses the problem (eight teams tied for 12th place can't lead to the next set of trophies starting at 19).

Re: MSNCT predictions

Posted: Tue May 21, 2019 8:58 am
by jonah
tabstop wrote: Tue May 21, 2019 8:54 am
jonah wrote: Sun May 19, 2019 1:11 pm Something else was wrong. Fixed; thanks!
I don't think that actually addresses the problem (eight teams tied for 12th place can't lead to the next set of trophies starting at 19).
Okay, I just need to stop counting by hand. Here's the actual data used to generate card-system paperwork.