Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

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Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

I just wanted to say that I am planning an attempt to keep a year-long season rankings for high school teams. This rankings will not be a poll, but determined entirely by me. I will be evaluating teams on their performances at tournaments through the year; as part of that, I will be trying to keep these results in a publicly accessible spreadsheet. These rankings will, essentially, be subjective, though the only things I'll be evaluating are statistical performances and information related to those performances, such as the difficulty of the question set, the attendance of a team's best players and even things like scouting reports from qb people whose opinions I trust.

I am doing this because I am dumb and love dealing with people who are slighted by online rankings and enjoy complaining about things. Also, because I think that people make errors when evaluating teams, errors which are pretty regularly indicated in ballots for the various polls I run on this site.

I'm not sure if this means I'll be doing a pseudo-preseason ranking or what. I'll post something regarding that when I come to a decision.

Edit: clarified the last sentence of that first paragraph.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

So, as part of this, I'm going to start going through top finishers from the nationals and try to determine which players are back (I'll just list their names next to the team). I would appreciate it if people would help out with this

I'll be editing this post as I get a chance to update it.

An asterisk denotes that I need to look into the B team roster. Also, note that I've only looked at PACE stats so far, and that if a player has less than 10 ppg, I won't list them because I'm lazy.

AL
Hoover
AR
Parkview
AZ
Brophy
CA
Arcadia
Bellarmine - everyone
Berkeley
La Jolla
Mission San Jose - Everyone from HSNCT
Rancho Bernardo
Santa Monica
Torrey Pines* - Sharad is back, Howon may be back too?
University
CO
Grand Junction
CT
Cheshire
DC
GDS - Daniel, maybe?
St. Anselm's - Aidan & Jacob
DE
Caesar Rodney
Wilmington Charter
FL
Pensacola
Ransom Everglades
GA
Alpharetta - everyone from NSC
Brookwood
Centennial - Adam, Katherine
Chattahoochee - All of A team except for Connie, all of B team
Norcross
Walton
IL
Adlai Stevenson - Kevin & Zach
Auburn - Lloyd, Abid, Jordan
Carbondale
Glenwood
Latin School
Lisle
Loyola
New Trier
Oak Park and River Forest
St. Ignatius - Andrew
Wheaton Warrenville South
IN
Culver
KY
Adair County - Luke, Jake
Danville
Dunbar - Sandy, Victor, Idrees(?) from A, Helen(?) and Tamas from B
duPont Manual - Everyone
Russell
Simon Kenton
MD
Blake - Conor
Montgomery Blair
Quince Orchard
Richard Montgomery - everyone from last year's A team except Raj
Walt Whitman - Jeremy
Walter Johnson - Kuo-Kai
MI
Churchill
DCC - Ryan, Matt M, David and Chris are back from the A team. Bobby, Jimmy, Connor T, Connor G, Robert, Brandon, Alex, and Kevin are all back for the B/C teams, too. More like Detroit Catholic Katamari amirite amirite
Detroit Country Day
Grosse Pointe North
Novi
Plymouth
Troy
MN
DeLaSalle
Eden Prairie
St. Paul Central
St. Thomas
MO
Clayton
Helias
Ladue Horton Watkins
North Kansas City
MT
Frenchtown
NC
Guilford
Hoggard
North Carolina School of Science & Math
Providence Day
Raleigh Charter
NJ
Bergen County
Livingston
Ranney
St. Joseph
Seton Hall
NY
Hunter* - Lily, York, Zihan and Paul
Kellenberg
OH
Copley - Everyone from NSC team
Northmont - Everyone from NSC team
Olmsted Falls - Everyone from HSNCT
Solon - Nishanth
South Range
Sycamore
Tippecanoe
Walnut Hills - Joe
Warren G. Harding - Everyone from NSC team
OK
Edmond Santa Fe
PA
Cumberland Valley
Rocky Grove
State College - everyone is back
SC
Dorman - Mariya & Sydney from A, David and Sam and Saif from B
Southside
TN
Ezell-Harding
Hume-Fogg
Martin Luther King Jr Magnet
Oak Ridge
TX
Cistercian
LASA* - Benji, Daniel & Thomas
Seven Lakes - everyone
St. John's
St. Mark's
VA
George Mason
Maggie Walker - Tommy & JR back from A. I would expect Stephen would move up from the B team
Ocean Lakes
Robinson
Thomas Jefferson* - Diana, Siddharth, Stephen, Olivia
WV
Parkersburg - Henry, Tyler and Nick are back; David graduated
Canada
Lisgar
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by ieppler »

Ronnie the Bear wrote: GDS - Daniel, maybe?
Yes.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Rountree »

Fred,

Not that we were a top 15 finisher last year, and we didn't attend PACE, but Chattahoochee returns everyone from its A Team that finished t-17th at the HSNCT except for Connie (who was awesome). For what it's worth, we also return everyone from our HSNCT B Team.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Sir Thopas »

Ronnie the Bear wrote:Hunter* - Lily & York are definitely back. I think Zihan is too, but I don't know about Paul
Hunter returns everyone for two more years.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Carambola! »

We return everyone who played at HSNCT as well.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

RountreeCHS wrote:Fred,

Not that we were a top 15 finisher last year, and we didn't attend PACE, but Chattahoochee returns everyone from its A Team that finished t-17th at the HSNCT except for Connie (who was awesome). For what it's worth, we also return everyone from our HSNCT B Team.
Yeah, I will get to HSNCT teams as soon as I can, but it's easier if I go through one set of stats at a time and the PACE ones are smaller.

Speaking of teams that didn't show up at both nationals, what teams didn't show up at either NAQT or PACE? I think Caesar Rodney did that, Parkersburg did that. Am I missing anyone?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Carambola! »

I know, I wanted to save you the trouble of researching.
Also, we weren't at PACE.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Important Bird Area »

Ronnie the Bear wrote:Speaking of teams that didn't show up at both nationals, what teams didn't show up at either NAQT or PACE? I think Caesar Rodney did that, Parkersburg did that. Am I missing anyone?
Caesar Rodney finished t-43 at HSNCT.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

bt_green_warbler wrote:
Ronnie the Bear wrote:Speaking of teams that didn't show up at both nationals, what teams didn't show up at either NAQT or PACE? I think Caesar Rodney did that, Parkersburg did that. Am I missing anyone?
Caesar Rodney finished t-43 at HSNCT.
Wah wah waaaaaaaaaaaah
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Unicolored Jay »

Caesar Rodney attending neither? Unthinkable!

Here's some from Ohio that are rather notable:

Copley - Everyone from NSC team
Northmont - Everyone from NSC team
Olmsted Falls - Everyone from HSNCT
Solon - Nishanth
Walnut Hills - Joe
Warren G. Harding - Everyone from NSC team

And some other places:

dupont Manual - Everyone, I think
Bellarmine - Everyone?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Down and out in Quintana Roo »

Judy Sucks a Lemon for Breakfast wrote:Caesar Rodney attending neither? Unthinkable!
Believe it, for 2011 at least.

Anyway, yeah, it's a rebuilding year, but we have Alexa (a junior) who i think will/should be better than Trey... but not until next year. Right now, we have a long way to go.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Smuttynose Island »

Ronnie the Bear wrote: Thomas Jefferson* - Diana, Siddharth, Stephen(?), Olivia(?)
With the exception of Thaila and Greyson, TJ returns all of the people it sent to PACE.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by jonah »

Ronnie the Bear wrote:IL
Adlai Stevenson - Kevin & Zach
Auburn - Lloyd, Abid, Jordan(?)
St. Ignatius - Andrew is back, I believe
No on Jordan (off to Johns Hopkins) and yes on Andrew. Other notable returning players include Ben Carbery of OPRF, Greg Dzuricsko of Lisle, and Nolan Winkler of Loyola.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by BGSO »

jonah wrote:
Ronnie the Bear wrote:IL
Adlai Stevenson - Kevin & Zach
Auburn - Lloyd, Abid, Jordan(?)
St. Ignatius - Andrew is back, I believe
No on Jordan (off to Johns Hopkins) and yes on Andrew. Other notable returning players include Ben Carbery of OPRF, Greg Dzuricsko of Lisle, and Nolan Winkler of Loyola.
Don't forget about Jake O'Shea.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AlphaQuizBowler »

More teams from Georgia:
Centennial (from HSNCT team): Adam, Katherine
Walton: Abubakar, Slok, Manasa
Alpharetta: all of the NSC team
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Nine-Tenths Ideas »

MD:
Whitman returns Jeremy Steinberg, I think... he was alright.
WJ returns Kuo-Kai. Probably the best player in Maryland.
RM will be pretty legit. They have all of their A-team from last year except Raj, and Arun has some surprisingly deep pockets of knowledge.
Blake returns... Conor. Go Conor.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Rococo A Go Go »

Kentucky:

DuPont Manual (Everyone)
Paul Laurence Dunbar (Sandy, Idrees, Victor, Brian, some other good players)
Adair County (Luke, Jake, some others)

Those are the only 3 that are probably in consideration at the moment.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by at your pleasure »

Whitman also returns Todd, who has apparently been studying over the summer, and Alex, who will presumably continue to pick up Romanian stuff.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Edward Powers »

State, Hunter, TJ, Alpharetta and MSJ have everyone returning, I believe. So might Richard Montgomery and Northmont.

Meanwhile, teams with at least two to three great players returning include LASA, Dorman, MWGS, Bellarmine, Stevenson, Auburn, DCC, St. Anselm's, Seven Lakes, du Pont and Dunbar, as far as I know. And LASA, Dorman and Dunbar had great B teams last year, so they are probably just re-loading, as great programs do.

And teams with at least one and possibly two truly gifted nationally proven players returning include Walter Johnson, Loyola, St. Ignatius, Olmsted Falls, Kelllenberg, Oak Park and River Forest, Lisle, and possibly Adair County. And doubtless there are a fair amount that I have overlooked, teams no doubt that many reading this could quickly name and recommend as strong contenders for the Top 25 this year.

On the other side, some programs might be down because they lost tremendous seniors and/or in one case at least, a dynamic coach. GDS, DCD, Southside, Torrey Pines, Whitman, Solon, Caesar Rodney, Quince Orchard and Wilmington Charter (to mention only the most obvious) all lost some great players and the bulk or at least the heart of their scoring, or so it seems at least from a distance, while Charter also lost its coach. So these programs might be down from their usual standards of excellence, but some have been so good for so long that I would never want to bet against them either.

These were some of the considerations I took into account when I voted for this year's Pre-season Top 25. And I did see many of these teams last year up close and personal, either during the regular season or at the HSNCT or the NSC.

But all of us will make some errors in judgment when polling, inevitably so, for many reasons that we can all figure out. But by the end of last year my guess is most pollsters were right about 80% of the time in their Pre-Nationals poll of the Top 25, and in a country this size, making it difficult to see everyone play, this is not really a bad statistic. At least I don't think so. Still, there were some great surprises too, like Bellarmine and Adair County, which keeps all of this pleasantly & refreshingly unpredictable as well, providing all with national aspirations with some good reasons to hope when faced with the traditional Goliaths of quizbowl.

Anyway, thanks for doing this; I hope my input helps you a little with your prelimanry rankings. If not, ignore it!!!!

EDIT: Meanwhile, Fred: Do you have a deadline for your Pre-Season Top 25 Poll which you have called for on another forum?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Tanay »

Judy Sucks a Lemon for Breakfast wrote: Bellarmine - Everyone?
Yes. Everyone.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

I'm finally able to work on this again! Hooray.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

Okay, I've listed every team that finished in the top 50 at the NSC, in the playoffs at the HSNCT or with 160 ppg outside of the playoffs at the HSNCT. Apologies to anyone I missed.

If you know anything about the makeup of those teams for this year, please let me know; just post the first names of returning players.

This gives me... way too many teams to work with, probably.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by kayli »

Kay, Nathan, Helie, Melody, and Hayden return on Pensacola; and I think Matt, David, and Cole return on Ransom Everglades.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Carambola! »

Berkeley High loses their top two scorers and return only one player I believe.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Down and out in Quintana Roo »

If you didn't know, CR lost about 8-9 super-serious to semi-serious quizbowl players from graduation, including three-fourths of our A Team. Alexa (a junior) remains. At the moment, she has plenty of people to fill in those spots, but very little actual help. "Rebuilding" is certainly the word to use for this year.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Flutist Wren »

MO: Clayton retains Ikshu, Helias loses Stephen and Megan but keeps Nick, Ladue keeps at least Max and Zev (not sure if he went to HSNCT), and NKC loses Grant but keeps everyone else.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN) »

Clayton also returns Gabrielle, Charlie, and I believe Micah, plus some of the other alternates that went to nationals. Ladue returns Ravi, Aojia, Max (who will be a sophomore), and Zev, who missed nationals but was their top scorer at the one local NAQT event Ladue took their A team to last year. I will note in Ladue's case that year in and year out they consistently only go to a couple tournaments and then play the MSHSAA series, so I don't expect you will see very many results out of them this year unless that practice changes. NKC only loses Grant, but as you can see Grant is a big deal when factoring in NKC's placement at nationals. The remaining team seems very motivated, and they are really young (2 sophomores, 2 juniors I think), so I hope we can eventually hear some noise again from NKC, but in the immediate future I think this is rebuilding time. Helias, in addition to losing Stephen and Megan, also loses Brad. I will note that, on an annual basis, Helias seems to do a better job than most local teams at cultivating B team players to move up and fill some gaps on the A team though, so I would not at all be surprised to see them find people that cause them to rebound well from their graduations, plus their best player is only going to be a junior. Of the other Missouri teams I think you should be looking out for, if you are looking at these guys:

Villa Duchesne barely placed outside of the top 100 at HSNCT and only returns Sabrina and Molly, but as you can see from the stats Sabrina is by a wide margin the top scorer on their team (it's usually much wider when the events are of lower difficulty) and Sabrina is ultra motivated and improved an incredible amount from where she was her sophomore year, so whether or not Villa can find teammates who will help give her the kind of support that graduating players Rachel and Erica provide, Villa will remain in the running against any other Missouri team, assuming Sabrina keeps improving, especially if she branches out from her literature focus and can start getting a lot of powers in some other categories consistently.

Fort Zumwalt West, home to the notorious Jeremy Gibbs, is also home to Dylan Becraft, who is a junior who has been doing a ton of improving at pyramidal questions on his own time, since Gibbs of course is known for emphasizing the MSHSAA series. However, Gibbs quit coaching this year, and so Dylan is trying to rebuild the team, and if it gets off the ground, I am confident Dylan will be able to make this a very relevant team locally. To wit, last year Dylan traveled out to a singles side event I ran in May and performed well enough to place 2nd over Sabrina and Josh from Cape Girardeau Central (another HSNCT all-star), plus some of the other players from top teams last year, and Dylan beat Grant once to force a final that Grant eventually won. That was quite a statement, considering that FZW literally did not prepare for pyramidal questions, by all reports.

I personally expect, at least at the beginning of the season, Clayton, Villa Duchesne, Fort Zumwalt West, and Ladue to be the top teams in the state, but based on what I know about their teams, I would say that I truly cannot make an accurate judgement of which team will do the best of those, because they all seemed to have basically comparable performances at various events, or else they don't have any consistent stats for me to compare. I would say too that it is eminently possible for other local teams to overtake anyone, since I think every team in the state right now has some large-ish holes in their knowledge bases. If any of the above four does a good job of plugging said holes, that will be what assures them a state-winning performance.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Excelsior (smack) »

FWIW, Sycamore (OH) loses #1 player (48 ppg), returns #2 (30 ppg), plus both ~0 ppg players. Sycamore is not currently in the vicinity of being good and will probably never attend a national tournament ever again so yeah.

Other Ohio teams: South Range loses pretty much everyone (i.e. Jarret). Tippecanoe loses #1 scorer (50 ppg) and retains everyone else.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by cvdwightw »

For Southern California, I haven't been paying that much attention to who is coming and going, but:

Torrey Pines returns Sharad and some number of other non-Stephen players. Obviously losing Stephen means this team is taking a giant step backward, but Sharad did put up 20 ppg on a balanced California NASAT team. La Jolla returns Erica and Alison from their A team and at least half their B team, though I'm not sure which half. Rancho Bernardo returns Lucas and David but loses Julia. For what it's worth, they return a bunch of people who won the lower levels of Academic League, though I'm not sure whether any of that group is going to provide supporting punch on pyramidal questions. Santa Monica loses Max and at least one of Sky and Carlee, but I think returns the rest of the team. Arcadia loses everybody(?) from the HSNCT roster. University returns everybody except maybe Andrew; this is also the first year in their team's existence that their entire A team will have no first-year players.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Flash Bomba »

Andrew's not coming back, unfortunately. However, likely Alex L, Kevin, or Jesse (who is a lot better than his neg-fest at HSNCT would suggest) will probably take his place and average about the same number of/possibly more points.

EDIT: Grammar and spelling.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Masked Canadian History Bandit »

Lisgar will return all of its entire A-team from HSNCT and everyone except the two lowest scorers on their B-team. We're still the deepest team in Canada, so the B-team shouldn't suffer too much (more).
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Rufous-capped Thornbill »

FWIW, since we're up there, South Range returns it's 3rd leading scorer from the HSNCT team, Nathan Lotze, along with Brian Bishop. Both aren't nearly as crazy as the team was last year in terms of studying and practicing, but they'll be good enough to probably qualify for nationals and maybe win a few in the small school playoffs.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

Who's back for Danville and Ocean Lakes?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Rufous-capped Thornbill »

Ronnie the Bear wrote:Who's back for Danville and Ocean Lakes?
Everyone from Danville. No idea on Ocean Lakes.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by wexs883198215 »

WJ also gets Ophir, our #2 back. He's pretty good at NAQT, at least compared to me. We lose most of our rap knowledge but remain essentially the same team.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Angry Babies in Love »

wexs883198215 wrote:WJ also gets Ophir, our #2 back. He's pretty good at NAQT, at least compared to me. We lose most of our rap knowledge but remain essentially the same team.
You'll also have a big hole in the "hitting on girls using poetry" category, but Ophir can probably pick up the slack.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Frater Taciturnus »

Wurzel-Flummery wrote:
wexs883198215 wrote:WJ also gets Ophir, our #2 back. He's pretty good at NAQT, at least compared to me. We lose most of our rap knowledge but remain essentially the same team.
You'll also have a big hole in the "hitting on girls using poetry" category, but Ophir can probably pick up the slack.
I think you have them comically confused for another team and I had no idea this story was this widely known.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by FlamingPiWalrusWizard »

Frenchtown returns me, Mary, and Michael (who is still in the PACE stats as "Matt" from Totally Awesome Dudes). We lose history and chemistry/bio knowledge due to the graduation of both Joe and Taylor. We also return a sophomore who almost made the NSC team, if that counts.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Angry Babies in Love »

Frater Taciturnus wrote:
Wurzel-Flummery wrote:
wexs883198215 wrote:WJ also gets Ophir, our #2 back. He's pretty good at NAQT, at least compared to me. We lose most of our rap knowledge but remain essentially the same team.
You'll also have a big hole in the "hitting on girls using poetry" category, but Ophir can probably pick up the slack.
I think you have them comically confused for another team and I had no idea this story was this widely known.
Nah, it was definitely this team. I witnessed it lol. It was on our student-produced county quiz show.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Frater Taciturnus »

Wurzel-Flummery wrote:
Nah, it was definitely this team. I witnessed it lol. It was on our student-produced county quiz show.
aha, I thought you were referring to another incident of basically the same thing.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Angry Babies in Love »

Frater Taciturnus wrote:
Wurzel-Flummery wrote:
Nah, it was definitely this team. I witnessed it lol. It was on our student-produced county quiz show.
aha, I thought you were referring to another incident of basically the same thing.
This is WAY too prevalent.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Duncan Idaho »

Frater Taciturnus wrote:
Wurzel-Flummery wrote:
Nah, it was definitely this team. I witnessed it lol. It was on our student-produced county quiz show.
aha, I thought you were referring to another incident of basically the same thing.
Are you referring to what I think you are?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by mkanu »

So how often would the rankings be updated?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

Probably monthly or so.

I'm about 70% done with the preliminary rankings. Just in case anyone's worried about me parroting the college football polls, I have no plans on using "well, this team was higher than this team pre-season" as a justification once I have stats for teams.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Broad-tailed Grassbird »

In Michigan, UD Jesuit is more likely to actually play tournaments than Churchill or Plymouth, and on top of that they might be better. But you'll have to talk to the DCC kids to find out more.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

I'm going to keep the laughably late "preseason" rating to just the top 25 because later on, especially after 40, it's almost impossible to order teams with any real degree of accuracy.

Might toss it up tonight if I feel comfortable enough with it.
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by Angry Babies in Love »

Ronnie the Bear wrote:I'm going to keep the laughably late "preseason" rating to just the top 25 because later on, especially after 40, it's almost impossible to order teams with any real degree of accuracy.

Might toss it up tonight if I feel comfortable enough with it.
Will this weekend's action play into the rankings by any chance?
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

Nope. I am not looking at any stats from this year for this, and I'm doing my best to not allow my knowledge of events (which I've purposefully been limiting as much as I can) to color things.

Edit: added a pretty key clause
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Re: Planned HS Top 25(+?) Rankings

Post by AKKOLADE »

I (choose one: may/may not) do the next update in a week, depending on how quickly stats are posted from September tournaments, how much data I have to work with, how insane I'm going from school & work, if the Mothman gets me, etc.
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