(Abbreviated) College Preview, 2012-2013 Season

[Cheynem]

I don't feel like doing a top 25 this year, but I guess I'll start the discussion going by posting my projected top 10 for the upcoming year. I am very ignorant of west coast quizbowl and I think a properly stacked and motivated Stanford and/or Berkeley team might have an argument.

1. UVA. They have the best player in quizbowl. They return all of their key components from the team that won ICT and finished a very close second at ACF Nationals. I'd be surprised if this team doesn't capture at least one of the belts.

2. Illinois. I'll again get on the Illinois train. Ike Jose, like him or lump him, is one of the top active players in quizbowl. Aaron Rosenberg adds in a player with an interestingly similar knowledge base to Mike Sorice, which seems to complement Ike well. Matt Weiner loves to hate on the UIUC supporting cast, but I'd argue this current permutation of supporters (Billy, Austin) seems like some of the more stable and invested at UIUC in some time.

3. Penn. Penn got Dallas Simons, which means a team a few matches away from an ACF Nationals title and a tough draw away from a potential ICT top bracket attack adds a Top 25 type player. Eric Mukherjee is still far and away the best science player in quizbowl and has a very solid other knowledge base. His own supporting cast seems motivated and eager as well. My gut puts Penn 3rd, not 2nd, though.

4. Michigan. Retains everyone and well equipped for long term stability with Kurtis and Will at graduate schools. There's a lot to like about Michigan, who can beat any team in the land, but they have in recent years been sort of iffy at ICT. They'll need to step that up. As Michigan gets better and better, they move out of the four specialist type model they utilized a few years back.

5. Chicago. Easily the deepest team in quizbowl, just filled with specialists and players with deep if not necessarily broad knowledge. I think Marnold was correct that an eight-man Chicago team would maul any other quizbowl team; their problem will be getting a MVP type player to click with the right players at the right time to consistently win. I wonder if Sam Bailey or Marshall Steinbaum has that potential.

6. Yale. The two-time defending Nats champs lose John Lawrence; I might be unfair here, knocking a team five spots for the loss of Johnny Ace, but I think JL was the perfect storm of a player on Yale, able to pair with Matt Jackson (and his other teammates) to work as sort of a humanities generalist who could act as an insane specialist when needed. Anyway, Yale is loaded with top talent and I think is perfectly capable of retaining at Nats.

7. Maryland. The finish at Nats probably wasn't what Chris Ray was looking for, but his team was in contention in almost every match. I was impressed with Arun especially. This team will suffer with the lose of Steve-Jon, but with the general downshift in science knowledge throughout quizbowl, I don't see it as a major problem.

8. Georgia Tech. One of the top high schoolers arrives at a program with a rich history but currently stuck in a holding pattern which is led by Will Butler. Hey, this script sounds familiar! I would be surprised to see Adam Silverman make a Bollinger-like impact, but he'll (assuming he's motivated) certainly make some impact and I think G'Tech makes a top bracket run at both nationals.

9. MIT. It's been kind of a joke to praise Hypothetical MIT the last few years but hopefully that time is almost over. You've got a lot of science knowledge here, you've got a potentially MVP type player in Neil Gurram, you've got some great young talent.

10. Chicago B. I would not be surprised at Nats to see a Chicago B team again be in the top bracket. This team is loaded.

Any other thoughts?

[merv1618]

EDIT--delete this post

[Smuttynose Island]

(Somewhat less abbreviated) College Preview

1. UVA – To be frank, I’m done underestimating Matt Bollinger like I did in my Player ballot at the end of last year. Not only does this team boast the best player in collegiate quizbowl, but he is surrounded by Evan, Tommy, and NAQT whiz David Seal. They won ICT last year and made the ACF Nats final, so this is the team to beat.

2. UPenn – Dallas Simons is added to an Eric Mukherjee-led team that fished fourth at ACF Nationals and a disappointing 11th at ICT. That deadly one-two punch, along with a solid supporting cast, means that this team will go head to head with UVA at many tournaments this year, and could wind up winning both nationals.

3. Illinois – As was demonstrated last year, Ike Jose is really really good. Aaron Rosenberg is also really really good. With Billy and Austin still around, this team should be really really good.

4. Michigan – They keep everyone off of the third place team from ACF Nationals last year.

5. Yale – This team’s loss of John Lawrence should be somewhat mitigated by the fact that he and Kevin overlapped so much. Ashvin’s ascendency as a great science player will also help this team in another down year for QB Science players.

6. Maryland – Chris Ray returns once again, this time without the estimable SteveJon, although star in the making Arun Chonai will try to minimize the impact of that.

7. Chicago A – As the only school last year that managed to have two teams make the top bracket of ACF Nationals, it goes without saying that this team is deep. With that being said, you can only field four players at a time so some of their players will have to step up if they want to win a national championship.

8. Minnesota – Andrew Hart and Mike Cheyne are back. Barring Gaurav becoming the next great science player though this team is probably destined to the middle/lower end of the upper bracket at both Nationals like last year, which really isn’t so bad.

9. Brown – They return a very strong team from last year, plus they get the duo from Auburn, Abid and Lloyd.

10. Georgia Tech – Joining Will Butler next year at Georgia Tech is Adam Silverman, the top player in HS quizbowl from last year. That should only help this team which finished in the middle of the second bracket at ICT last year.

11. MIT – Last year’s UG champion at ICT, this team boasts some very good undergraduates. Both Lily Chen and Adam Kalinch, presumably along with other good HSers, are going to MIT this year, so surrounding Josh and Neil with two more players hopefully won’t be a problem. It’s not as if their DII team last year was a joke either.

12. Chicago B – Basically Chicago A, but presumably not quite as good.

13. Alabama – While never the trendy choice, Alabama had a very good year last year finishing 12th at ICT. I don’t believe that they lose anyone, so they’ll presumably have another solid year.

14. Columbia – Although this team loses Rafael, they gain Aidan Mehigan and retain Michael Arnold. Those two players should be good enough for this team to repeat its success form last year.

15. Oops! – Did I forget to rank your team? Does that make you sad? Mad? Or perhaps at a loss for words? If so then imagine your team name in place of the “Oops!” If you are more modest than most quizbowlers and don’t think that your team should be ranked, then feel free to put whatever team you believe deserves to be the fifteenth best team in the country here.

EDIT: With the news of Mike's limited participation next year having reached my ears, I feel compelled to lower their ranking from 6th to 8th.

[merv1618]

At the risk of causing an uproar comparable to my ACF nats prediction gaffe, I figured I might as well throw my two cents in.

1) UVA. Matt Bollinger's the best in the game today, plus last year's nats results, etc. They seem to be

2) Penn. Eric's only major support last year came from Saajid, and still managed to do quite well at ACF nats. Now that they've got Dallas Simons filling in a lot of holes (especially geo in NAQT tournaments) they strike me as the best team to give UVA a run for their money.

3) Michigan. I can't really say more than others have already said.

4) Illinois. I suppose I'll put them below Michigan but in all essence they strike me as about equal. I guess UIUC's results have been slightly more erratic in recent history, but I'm sure we'll get a better look after seeing how Aaron fits in.

5) Chicago. They always seem to end up in the top bracket of whatever tournament they go to, and I'll be a bit edgy and say that Ben Chametzky might end up quite beastly by the end of the year; I wouldn't be at all surprise if he ends up on Chi-A. The return of Sam Bailey might also up them a slot or two come nats season. I'm still not quite sure how they'll compare to UIUC and Yale in the long run, though.

6) Yale. I'll echo Mike's sentiments and say that John Lawrence was their hidden "best" player last year (note how Matt Jackson ranked him above himself in the player poll). However, that's not to say the other three plus whomever they pick as a fourth from their arsenal will be less than insane. (Spencer?)

7) Maryland. They return 3 of their starting 4 including Chris Ray, and Arun Chonai just seems to be getting notably better.

8) Brown. Picking up Lloyd, Abid, and Daniel Branch-Neufeld will certainly be advantageous. I'd be surprised to see less than top bracket finishes at ICT and ACF nats.

9) Minnesota. Whether or not Mike Cheyne is everpresent, Andrew Hart and company still pose quite a significant threat.

10) MIT. Josh Alman's ICT stats last year compared to what they were at DII as a freshman are for the lack of a better word frightening. When you add freshman such as Lily Chen, plus Neil Gurram's already solid basis, I'd expect them to have strong finishes throughout the year.

11) Georgia Tech. Will Butler, already with solid support, picks up Adam Silverman, arguably the best high school player in modern quizbowl times. However, they probably will have significant overlap.

12) Stanford. They pick up Nikhil Desai, and already have a decent class of '15 along with grad student presence.

13) Harvard. They've still got Stephen, David, and Graham, plus others. I wouldn't count out an upset victory here and there.

Others in no particular order:
Rice
Columbia getting Aidan Mehigan
Alabama
Chicago B
Northwestern? Eh, why not. Dan Don and Malis buzz on stuff.
Berkeley getting Ankit
Yale B
Michigan State
Florida--If I'm not mistaken, they'll have both Kelson Brothers? Both quite dangerous generalists.
WUSTL getting Richard Yu

[Smuttynose Island]

At the risk of causing an uproar comparable to my ACF nats prediction gaffe, I figured I might as well throw my two cents in.

1) UVA. Matt Bollinger's the best in the game today, plus last year's nats results, etc. They seem to be

What will we be? I HOPE THE BEST AROUND! Cuz nothing's ever gonna keep us down!

[Sam]

It wouldn't be a predictions thread if someone didn't start a sentence and

[The Ununtiable Twine]

At the risk of causing an uproar comparable to my ACF nats prediction gaffe, I figured I might as well throw my two cents in.

1) UVA. Matt Bollinger's the best in the game today, plus last year's nats results, etc. They seem to be

What will we be? I HOPE THE BEST AROUND! Cuz nothing's ever gonna keep us down!

#1 UVA will be, kind of like #1 Michael Jordan just was.

[merv1618]

At the risk of causing an uproar comparable to my ACF nats prediction gaffe, I figured I might as well throw my two cents in.

1) UVA. Matt Bollinger's the best in the game today, plus last year's nats results, etc. They seem to be

What will we be? I HOPE THE BEST AROUND! Cuz nothing's ever gonna keep us down!

I can't actually remember what I was gonna say.

[Adventure Temple Trail]

Underestimate Michigan at your own peril. At ACF Nationals in 2011 and 2012, their best team was capable of delivering losses to higher-ranked teams (beating both Yale & Minnesota at Nats 2011 and UVA at Nats 2012). I wouldn't be surprised to see a winning streak propel them to the ACF Nationals finals match, though they will have to brush up on their NAQT (or get a luckier, less regional bracket) to crack the ICT playoffs after a long absence. Will Nediger seems to only get better with time, having recently been able to out-power much of the CO field sitting next to Rob. Kurtis, Libo, and Bryan are no slouches either.

King's College London should be the number 1 British team.

[Cheynem]

Michigan is very scary; I do think that for whatever reason ICT doesn't quite play to their best players' strengths (I recall that in our match against them, Will Nediger killed a whole bunch of academic stuff, but the trash and CE went our way), but I think that's rather random.

[The Ununtiable Twine]

Maybe a particular person will stop making bonehead plays that cost his team victories against top 10 teams at ICT. Just maybe.

With that being said, here's my current top 15:

1. UVA. Seems like the right pick to make here, but closer than you think.
2. Penn. I wouldn't be surprised to see them win either national tournament.
3. Michigan. Certainly not a surprise if they play for a national title in either format. Exceptional team. They'll find a way to mask problems that they may have.
4. Illinois. They made the ICT final last year and will have more solid results with the addition of Aaron Rosenberg.
5. Chicago. They just field excellent teams always. This is not stopping any time soon.
6. Georgia Tech. I think Adam will have quite the impact on the college scene, not quite Bollinger 2010 but closer than you think. Maybe a little too high but I'm going to be optimistic on this one.
7. Yale. Still an excellent team without John.
8. Maryland. Chris still has magic powers and will compete for top bracket spots surely.
9. MIT. I have a sneaky suspicion this is too low. Josh Alman powers 50 questions at ICT? You can't tell me that's much of a stretch.
10. Brown. Good recruiting class puts them here.
11. Minnesota. They will have another good finish at both national tournaments.
12. Alabama. I've changed practice structure, we have everyone back, I'm getting better at history, Dargan has more free time, Harrison just learns things that come up, we're working on gaping holes in our collective game, we plan to have a tougher strength of schedule, etc. Change of quizbowl culture for the better = better quizbowl team.
13. Rice. Don't forget about Rice, they continue to do well every nationals they go to.
14. Columbia. This is where they belong, forever and ever.
15. Michigan State. I believe in the Shan Kothari Express.

On a side note I don't think Kelson the Younger will be at UF.

[merv1618]

On a side note I don't think Kelson the Younger will be at UF.

Aw.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

As impressive as Adam Silverman's performances were this year, it would be prudent for everybody to keep in mind that Matt Bollinger, the gold standard of good high school players becoming good college players, put up this performance at the ICT his freshman year - http://naqt.com/stats/team-performance. ... m_id=30978. Certainly an impressive freshman performance, but a reminder that being a good high school player is not enough to be able to push your team up to that next tier. The other freshmen who were great high school players that won titles, Shantanu and Matt Jackson, came into programs where they were not the focus. Shantanu was like the #3 scorer on his team next to Seth Teitler of all the insanely dominant players, and Matt was able to be part of an incredibly balanced team with 2 other players who had been nationally relevant before. On top of that, lots of other dominant players in HS have ended up not continuing in college at all! I hope Adam plays because I think he can make Georgia Tech a better team, but guys, don't put the cart before the horse here.

[AKKOLADE]

#1 - . Ominpresent.

#2 - ? Do you have a problem with this one?

#3 - > It's definitely right angle bracket's year

#4 -

#5 - ! Disappoints as always.

[Cheynem]

The advantage for Adam, assuming he plays and stays motivated, is that he would have Will Butler, a top 25 player in his own right with loads of collegiate experience, to work with.

[grapesmoker]

#4 - A French 3-year-old on a tricycle

[AKKOLADE]

#4 - A French 3-year-old on a tricycle

No, #4 is no punctuation, in keeping with the strong history of quiz bowl writing not following the rules of grammar.

The 3-year-old is #13 in my high school rankings.

[The King's Flight to the Scots]

As impressive as Adam Silverman's performances were this year, it would be prudent for everybody to keep in mind that Matt Bollinger, the gold standard of good high school players becoming good college players, put up this performance at the ICT his freshman year - http://naqt.com/stats/team-performance. ... m_id=30978.

Your argument is generally sound, but I'd just like to claim extenuating circumstances on that one.

[bmcke]

I have to stan for Alberta here. I don't know what the cutoff for "top 25 player" is at this point, but Sinan and Trevor must both be close.

[AKKOLADE]

I have to stan for Alberta here.

Albertastan?

[Masked Canadian History Bandit]

I have to stan for Alberta here.

Albertastan?

Chechnya, Saskatchewan, Albertastan, etc.

[grapesmoker]

Albertastan?

British Saskatchalbertatoba

[theMoMA]

So last year, I said something to the effect of there being eleven teams in contention to win regular-season events and challenge for the top bracket at nationals. Those teams finished 1-11 at ICT, making me feel good about myself. The teams were (by region, then by ICT place):

East coast: Virginia, Yale, Maryland, Harvard, Brown, Penn
Midwest: Illinois, Chicago, Minnesota, Michigan
Everywhere else: UCSD

I don't know much about the player movement going on, so perhaps people could fill in the gaps here:

East coast: Virginia and Penn will be at least as good as last year. Maryland and Yale lose players but should remain in the top-bracket picture. Harvard and Brown could slide back to second-bracket teams depending on player movement. (Is Ted still in school, or is he done?) MIT and Columbia could get into the first-bracket picture, but I don't think they're there yet.

Midwest: I see all of these teams being at least as good this year as they were last year, with the caveat that our team could have a tougher regular season with Mike playing fewer events.

Everywhere else: USCD falls out of the picture with Auroni moving on. Georgia Tech seems poised to go from solid second-bracket team to true first-bracket contender, and Stanford is on the rise as well.

At the end of the day, here are my regular-season-tournament-winning and top-bracket-contending teams: Virginia, Penn, Maryland, Yale, Illinois, Chicago, Michigan, Minnesota, Georgia Tech. Add Harvard if Ted's still there. Brown, MIT, Columbia, and Stanford are the teams that could break into the mix.

[Smuttynose Island]

I don't know much about the player movement going on, so perhaps people could fill in the gaps here:

Penn

gets Dallas Simons.

Harvard

loses Ted and Dallas.

[Kwang the Ninja]

On a side note I don't think Kelson the Younger will be at UF.

There's a between 99.999 and 100% chance that he'll be on a Mormon mission for the next two years. I'll be continuing my heathen ways here in the 'ville for at least another year but seeing as how we can't even get a room on campus to practice in this may be another down year for UF quizbowl.

[merv1618]

something speculative about Adam Silverman

Here are some stats from him playing college stuff solo in Texas (against mostly HS teams)
DII ICT, 305.9 PPG, 15.92 PPB
ACF regs mirror, 267.9 PPG, 15.83 PPB

[Cheynem]

Kinda where I see Adam. Those are fantastic numbers for a high schooler playing solo, and combined with an excellent teammate in Will Butler, it's good enough to contend at most regular difficulty and below tournaments. The question is it enough to win the big title belts: that's up in the air.

[merv1618]

It's like I said in my ballot: they're both excellent players, but they're both science-oriented generalists, so I expect some minor overlap. Maybe I underranked them at 11th, but it's the eternal problem of every preseason poll: nothing's actually happened yet.

[Rufous-capped Thornbill]

Adam played with Will at BARGE, too, IIRC.

[Nine-Tenths Ideas]

Isaac Hirsch's Totally Reliable College Preview

1. UVA A
Matt Bollinger spends Winter Break learning all of science, and wins ACF Nationals 2013 and a Nobel in Chemistry.

2. UPenn
Even with Dallas as a teammate, Eric is unable to overcome the newly science-savvy Bollinger. Don't cry for Mukherjee, though; he'll win ACF Nationals in his last year of school, in 2065, against Matt Bollinger Jr.

3. Yale
John Lawrence was dominant, but the rest of Yale was also pretty good and, I dunno, Matt Jackson is already probably angrily preparing after being underrated.

4. Michigan
After reading for Michigan at ACF Nationals last year, I learned two things: 1. They're pretty good, and 2. Will Nediger looks like a sort of vague mental image of a quizbowler.

5. Illinois
After their surprise ICT performance last year, I think it's safe to say everybody is onboard the Billy Busse.

6. Chicago A
Realizing their depth is unheard of, Chicago molds its B team into one person in a horrible mad science experiment. Chadounnimmy is a crime against nature, but also gets 95 ppg.

7. Maryland
Lots of personnel turnover leads this team to end the year with an A team of Chris Ray, Sohan Vartek, Daniel Galitsky, and a mop.

8. Georgia Tech
Temper your expectations, people! I don't believe that this up-and-coming freshman "Will Butler" will transition well to the college game.

9. Chicago B
Despite melding the original B team into a Frankenstein-like monstrosity, this team will probably still be pretty good.

10. Oops!
I believe your team is better than Daniel Hothem does.

11. MIT/Harvard/Columbia/Cornell/Dartmouth/Princeton
Let's just leave these guys here.

12. Minnesota
Mike Cheyne's reduced involvement reduces Minnesota's dominance of that Mike Cheyne stuff. That means everything is coming up David Seal.

13. Alabama
No, seriously, guys. We're really coalescing and Dargan got really good over the summer. Plus, we have experience. THIS is our year. [Repeat this ranking for every year.]

14. Brown
Did I forget these guys? Yes. Yes I did.

15. Rice
Henry Gorman will probably go to ACF Nationals and do okay if he has nothing going on that weekend again.

[The Ununtiable Twine]

13. Alabama
No, seriously, guys. We're really coalescing and Dargan got really good over the summer. Plus, we have experience. THIS is our year. [Repeat this ranking for every year.]

That's a bunch of hogwash. I may have convinced JT to wear shorts at tournaments, a feat which can only be accomplished by a touch of my quizbowl wizardry. This immediately puts us in the top 5.

[DumbJaques]

5. Illinois

Nope.

[Ike]

5. Illinois

Nope.

That really hurts Chris.

[Nine-Tenths Ideas]

That really hurts Chris.

I think he's saying I underranked you. Unless you are hurt by Chris rating you highly.

[DumbJaques]

That really hurts Chris.

I think he's saying I underranked you. Unless you are hurt by Chris rating you highly.

That. As I noted last year, people never gave Aaron Rosenberg that much credit for Brown's performances despite him being the best player on that team. I can't imagine why anyone wouldn't have Illinois right in the mix this year, considering their performances last year and the fact that they really aren't losing anyone.

[grapesmoker]

Aaron is a really good player.

[Sima Guang Hater]

Aaron is a really good player.

Confirm.