Preseason

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

What it izzz?

So, wanna discuss what'll happen next year/potentially do another one of Fred's awesome polls just to see how horribly wrong it ends up by next May?

Personally, I can see Sunrise Christian taking it all, no?

[dyetman89]

Personally, I can see Sunrise Christian taking it all, no?

Oh, I don't think they'll hold a candle to Mount Westonka. Be reasonable, Charles!

[gonzagaeagleahy]

I think poll is good idea. It'll be hectic but interesting I'm sure.

[AKKOLADE]

I am definitely going to do a pre-season poll soon. I'm also working on doing another interview for Fire Matt Weiner's Head, plus non-quizbowl crap.

[killbill_07]

Here's my well-researched prediction.

1. MLK Magnet
2. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
3. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
4. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
5. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
6. one of 200 Minnesota teams sure to attend
7. Three 6 Mafia
8. Chuck Norris
9. Nauru's newly formed Quiz Bowl Death Squad
10. Charlie Dees err I mean NKC

No but seriously, MLK will probably win.

[Byko]

Are you kidding me? A national preseason poll? Sorry, but I take the Steve Spurrier approach to preseason polls--they're pretty much crap (hence the reason he always casts a vote for Duke in his top 25).

[mhanna]

"Pretty much crap" That's no way for someone from Furman to talk.

[segregold]

Preseason polls always suck because everyone (including me) predicts their team will do much better than it winds up doing, and then by May everyone has lost at least 3 major tournaments and spends most of their time cursing themselves for missing that tossup on Judas Iscariot.

[catsasslippers]

Preseason polls are silly. You really can't predict how a season will go before it even starts. It's impossible to predict without knowing the new members of a team, who is moving up on larger teams, or how much people have been studying all summer.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

potentially do another one of Fred's awesome polls just to see how horribly wrong it ends up by next May?

So I don't think anyone here would take that poll very seriously ppl.

1. MLK Magnet
2. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
3. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
4. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
5. *insert arbitrary team from Michigan*
6. one of 200 Minnesota teams sure to attend
7. Three 6 Mafia
8. Chuck Norris
9. Nauru's newly formed Quiz Bowl Death Squad
10. Charlie Dees err I mean NKC

No but seriously, MLK will probably win.

I approve of the humor, but I think it's gonna be Dorman v. TJ in the finals next year. To my untrained eye, it looks like the reason MLK was so good at PACE was because of Dallas being a pimp daddy and then Raju butsecxsing the science, and now Raju is gone, so Dallas won't have the same kind of nasty support he had last year. However, he still could probably win most games playing solo, so we'll see.

[Byko]

"Pretty much crap" That's no way for someone from Furman to talk.

I hereby replace "pretty much crap" with the phrase "pretty much diddly-poo."

[AKKOLADE]

A pre-season poll would be good for the following reasons:

1) As Charlie says, comparing it with the end of the year results would be interesting
2) It raises awareness of teams from areas that can be underreported
3) It sparks discussion about quiz bowl, which is always good
4) It hopefully makes people look at last year's results and review them, which is always good
5) I am running it, boyeeeeeee

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

5) I am running it, boyeeeeeee

That is reason enough to go jump off a cliff with a herd of lemmings (which don't actually jump off cliffs BTW), as long as Fred's running it.

[quizbowllee]

If we're gonna do a "pre-season" poll, we'd better do it soon. We have a tournament next weekend!

[segregold]

If we're gonna do a "pre-season" poll, we'd better do it soon. We have a tournament next weekend!

What? It's like, August, dude. What the hell?

Alright, for pre-season estimate of the finals, I think it will be Whitman or TJ vs. Dorman. I know from humiliating ass-handed-to-me experience that Dorman is a really good team, and they're bringing back virtually their entire lineup from last year. TJ B did really well last year and is moving up a lot of talent, so they should be fairly ferocious. And Whitman is bringing back their entire A Team lineup, which also features the addition of some Indian kid who is really good at NAQTs.

Now, no team that I've been on at RM has ever actually lost a game to Whitman, so I continually underestimate their abilities. They are a good team, especially with a full returning, experienced lineup. I think that Whitman will do better than TJ in the beginning of the year and then fall behind as TJ's new A Team gains more experience and (hopefully) gets better organized than it has been in the past. Dorman should just do very well the entire year.

Other possible contenders include my team, Richard Montgomery, which will probably see a slow start but might be good enough by the end of the year, and Gonzaga, which has Dan Puma and Kevin "Would Be Incredible If He Ever Buzzed" Leahy, and probably some other good people I don't know about. Dallas Simons from MLK is also one of the best players I've seen this year, so if he gets some backup they could be great.

I'm going to go with (countrywide):

1. Dorman
2/3. TJ/Whitman
4. RM
5. Gonzaga
6. MLK

Leaving room for teams I don't know about for the other 4 in the top ten.

[dyetman89]

I find it difficult to argue with Keith's top four, and though the order might be switched about a bit, all four are to my mind so close that it seems moot at this juncture. However, this

5. Gonzaga

I find hard to accept. Certainly, I can believe that Gonzaga will be very good indeed, especially at NAQT, which Puma seems to be very skilled at. The notion, though, that they will lose Ted and Colin and yet surpass this year's finish by such a margin seems unimaginable to me at this point, especially considering how many of your other top six return their best players. Don't mistake me, to my mind they're definitely a top ten team at HSNCT next year (PACE is murkier), just not necessarily top five. I would move MLK Magnet up a spot and Charter or NKC (assuming Charlie returns) into sixth. [/i]

[AKKOLADE]

If we're gonna do a "pre-season" poll, we'd better do it soon. We have a tournament next weekend!

Nerd.

[quizbowllee]

If we're gonna do a "pre-season" poll, we'd better do it soon. We have a tournament next weekend!

Nerd.

Hey, we've got a chance to play Dorman this early in the year. We're gonna take it.

[DumbJaques]

I find hard to accept. Certainly, I can believe that Gonzaga will be very good indeed, especially at NAQT, which Puma seems to be very skilled at. The notion, though, that they will lose Ted and Colin and yet surpass this year's finish by such a margin seems unimaginable to me at this point, especially considering how many of your other top six return their best players. Don't mistake me, to my mind they're definitely a top ten team at HSNCT next year (PACE is murkier), just not necessarily top five. I would move MLK Magnet up a spot and Charter or NKC (assuming Charlie returns) into sixth.

Dan showed at camp that he's on par with the top players in the country, and what matters more to me is that since I first saw him as a freshman on the zaga team, he's improved at virtually each and every tournament at which he's played. That kind of commitment pays dividends by the end of the year. Also, Leahy is no slouch and along with the other couple of people who could be there, has potential to get better to. Also, I imagine that the experience Dan and Kevin gained in big games last year will pay off and Zaga will be far less prone to underperform than it was last year.

There are about 10 teams that could have a shot come championship time, and I think it'll come down to who's willing to put in the most work. This certainly strikes me as one of the more open years we've had in a long while. . . of course, it seems like we say that every year and by the midpoint someone always breaks away from the pack. I think Gonzaga has as much a chance to do that as anyone right now, though.

[aestheteboy]

I'm willing to bet that Dorman, TJ, or MLK will win NAQT.
I'm even more willing to bet that Dorman, TJ, or MLK will win PACE.

[gonzagaeagleahy]

I guess I'll post my prediction for the top few teams for the BEGINNING of next year. Notice, I am not trying to predict whose gonna do well at nationals or anything because there is so much time and so much possible change until may/june of 2008 and like chris said, it really depends on certain teams putting in a lot of effort to try to lead the pack. So yeah...the top few I predict for the start of this quizbowl season:
1) Dorman
2) Whitman
3) MLK
4) TJ
5) RM
6) Wilmington Charter
7) Gonzaga
8) NKC
9) Stuyvesant
10) WJ
11) Hunter
Yeah I'm leaving out some ppl but this is just a random number of top people I thought of off the top of my head. If I were to predict, which i shall not, how the top 11 will end up at the end of the year, I would definitely move around every single one maybe excluding one or two. For example, I'd move TJ up like i think it was Keith said, they'll be improving massively, and We/Gonzaga will be improving (Dan and I together at the beginning of last year were unable to beat Ted AT ALL, but by the end of the year we both had improved enough to beat him several times, which of course highly angered him) and so will I'm sure other schools. But yeah. That's my extremely subjective list.
[edited to fix wording]

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

I guess I'll go ahead and post mine too -
In no particular order Dorman, MLK, RM, NKC, TJ, Stuy, Eden Prairie, Gonzaga, Wilmington Charter, Whitman. Maybe Dorman B could replace another team on that list.

[Diet Chuck]

1. Dorman
2. Whitman
3. MLK
4. Whitman
5. Gonzaga
6. Walter Johnson
7. RM
8. Wilmington Charter
9. Stuyvesant


TJ would be somewhere there if we actually had a sponsor; unfortunately, the school does not currently recognize that our team exists, so yeah. Our old sponsor got tired of our combined weirdness and left.

[killbill_07]

As always, teams from the DC/NE area refuse to acknowledge that good teams exist outside of the East Coast. It's ludicrous that no one suggested that East Lansing should be in the top 10 considering that Kurtis is just as good of a maverick player as Dallas or Charlie. DCC should be awesome as they always are next year along with a couple of other teams from Michigan that aren't frequently discussed like Novi and GPN who appear to be returning their top players next year. Last I saw, Illinois teams like New Trier and Bloomington are pretty darn awesome as well. Santa Monica in California is almost always top-notch as is Dunbar with Papa returning next year. Minnesota also seems to produce a few decent teams year after year as well.

All I'm saying is that the year when a team outside the traditional DC/NE powerhouse wins NAQT or PACE nationals is coming. Just don't be too shocked when it comes by.

[Diet Chuck]

Sorry. I only listed teams that I've played/seen play before, but I'm sure some other teams from not here are good too.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

As always, teams from the DC/NE area refuse to acknowledge that good teams exist outside of the East Coast.

Be fair, this kid is a n00b.

It's ludicrous that no one suggested that East Lansing should be in the top 10 considering that Kurtis is just as good of a maverick player as Dallas or Charlie.

Actually, I can say for a fact I have never played Kurtis, and on a quick browsing of stats it looks like he's never played Dallas either, so while he may/maynot be as good as us there is still no proof either way.

DCC should be awesome as they always are next year along with a couple of other teams from Michigan that aren't frequently discussed like Novi and GPN who appear to be returning their top players next year.

While yes, it does seem like DCC always rebounds and ends up doing well at NAQT, they are losing a lot of their team, which might be part of it. As for GPN and Novi, were you the same person who was talking about how those teams could be top 20 last year in the "OMG MICHIGANNNNNNN" thread? Stop it please, because I just checked, and neither of those teams made any national playoff last year. I think the lack of even making the playoffs, much less top 20, is a legit starting point for not discussing a team on the national scene. Unless something changes, they wont be powers at that rate.

Last I saw, Illinois teams like New Trier and Bloomington are pretty darn awesome as well. Santa Monica in California is almost always top-notch as is Dunbar with Papa returning next year. Minnesota also seems to produce a few decent teams year after year as well.

New Trier lost its 2 best players. Dunno about Bloomington. Santa Monica could maybe go far, we'll see there too, but California is such a self-contained area that nobody ever knows how those teams are until nationals. Same with Minnesota, although I do think Eden Prairie will be top 10 next year. I plan on attending a Minnesota tournament next year, so we'll see how that goes and who's good. With Dunbar, I think the lack of a top 20 and lack of consistent performances last year contributes to their lack of representation, which may/may not be fair, we'll see.

All I'm saying is that the year when a team outside the traditional DC/NE powerhouse wins NAQT or PACE nationals is coming. Just don't be too shocked when it comes by.

While I would like to see this happen, I do think the bias towards the east coast is more than well deserved. Just look at it. Every top 7 of the NAQT field was from the east coast, and in the top 20 there were 4 others from there. And lots of those teams are mostly returning this year, thus warranting their much deserved spots on the top 10. Think about it - if your team has the same people as last year they are in all likelyhood gonna be as good or better next year.

[Megalomaniacal Panda on Absinthe]

And Whitman is bringing back their entire A Team lineup, which also features the addition of some Indian kid who is really good at NAQTs.

I don't think calling me really good at NAQT is fair. I don't think I've converted more than three or four current events, trash, or geography tossups across my entire quiz bowl career, all topics somewhat ridiculously overrepresented in NAQT, including a tossup on Necronomicon, which is borderline as it is (not that I like Lovecraft). So I end up being sketchy at best on the average NAQT set.

What I am really good at relative to most people is ACF, but that's not even a relevant category of competition right now.

I'll agree with what Daichi said in the DC area thread. I think you're overrating us. I'd be pretty surprised if we finished better than we did last year, and I'm willing to bet our performance had we attended PACE would not have measured up to our showing at HSNCT.

I'm definitely seeing TJ, Dorman, and MLK, with possibly RM thrown in there, as the top teams in the coming season, and my money is on TJ to dominate at nationals.

[Quantum Mushroom Billiard Hat]

As for GPN and Novi, were you the same person who was talking about how those teams could be top 20 last year in the "OMG MICHIGANNNNNNN" thread? Stop it please, because I just checked, and neither of those teams made any national playoff last year.

To be fair, I don't think GPN even attended NAQT or PACE nationals, for various reasons. They at least should have reached the playoffs at NAQT.

[segregold]

I don't think calling me really good at NAQT is fair. I don't think I've converted more than three or four current events, trash, or geography tossups across my entire quiz bowl career, all topics somewhat ridiculously overrepresented in NAQT, including a tossup on Necronomicon, which is borderline as it is (not that I like Lovecraft). So I end up being sketchy at best on the average NAQT set.

NAQTs have gotten more ridiculous this past year (although I can hardly complain about Necronomicon, since I powered it despite not ever having read anything by Lovecraft), but what I meant is that you're very good at pyramidal type questions in contrast to the Keegan/It's Academic speed things we do down in D.C. I had always pegged Whitman as a team that was good at speed questions and okay-to-bad at pyramidals, but you seem more than adequately skilled on those and I think it really beefs your team up.

I'll agree with what Daichi said in the DC area thread. I think you're overrating us. I'd be pretty surprised if we finished better than we did last year, and I'm willing to bet our performance had we attended PACE would not have measured up to our showing at HSNCT.

I admit that Whitman is being a bit more pumped up than perhaps is necessary, but certainly at the start of the year you can't argue with 4 returning players, all of whom have experience, at a time when most teams are going to be scrambling just to get an A Team together.

As for the PACE-vs.-NAQT Nationals thing... I have to admit, last year I strongly undervalued PACE, which is partially why RM didn't go (the main reason being that no one else wanted to either). "Why should we waste time going to a tournament with only 30 teams?" I complained. "Nationals is the real test of skill. But after the immense topic-suck that was 2007 NAQT Nationals, I am going to stop doing that. PACE is important, and you might be right, Whitman might not be as skilled on those types of formats, and that should be taken into account when considering their skill as a team.

As always, teams from the DC/NE area refuse to acknowledge that good teams exist outside of the East Coast. It's ludicrous that no one suggested that East Lansing should be in the top 10 considering that Kurtis is just as good of a maverick player as Dallas or Charlie. DCC should be awesome as they always are next year along with a couple of other teams from Michigan that aren't frequently discussed like Novi and GPN who appear to be returning their top players next year. Last I saw, Illinois teams like New Trier and Bloomington are pretty darn awesome as well. Santa Monica in California is almost always top-notch as is Dunbar with Papa returning next year. Minnesota also seems to produce a few decent teams year after year as well.

Well then teach us snotty East Coast Liberals a lesson. Besides, dude, MLK and Dallas are from Nashville. Tennessee is hardly "east coast".

1. Dorman
2. Whitman
3. MLK
4. Whitman
5. Gonzaga
6. Walter Johnson
7. RM
8. Wilmington Charter
9. Stuyvesant

1) Dorman
2) Whitman
3) MLK
4) TJ
5) RM
6) Wilmington Charter
7) Gonzaga
8) NKC
9) Stuyvesant
10) WJ
11) Hunter

Both of these rankings seem to put Wilmington Charter and Stuyvesant too high for my tastes. Henry Gorman on Wilmington Charter is good, but I don't know about the rest of the team. As for Stuyvesant, I haven't seem them play, but I haven't heard anything amazing from shellshocked players leaving a game with them. The only other comment I have is that I definitely do not think that WJ is better than RM this year, as the first list suggested. Daichi is a great player, but the only other WJ guy who seemed to have much interest (their captain) graduated. He's going to have to build a new team more or less from scratch.

Dan showed at camp that he's on par with the top players in the country, and what matters more to me is that since I first saw him as a freshman on the zaga team, he's improved at virtually each and every tournament at which he's played. That kind of commitment pays dividends by the end of the year.

I agree with Chris, Puma has definitely gotten very good since I first saw him play. Honestly, I'm a little scared of him now. Gonzaga will be better this year than they were in the murky shadow of Ted.

[vcuEvan]

As for Stuyvesant, I haven't seem them play, but I haven't heard anything amazing from shellshocked players leaving a game with them.

Don't underestimate Stuyvesant. They went 2-0 against us last year and can be incredibly capable when they want to.

[dyetman89]

Both of these rankings seem to put Wilmington Charter and Stuyvesant too high for my tastes....As for Stuyvesant, I haven't seem them play, but I haven't heard anything amazing from shellshocked players leaving a game with them.

Based on (and solely on) our performance at HSNCT, I think this is a legitimate view - we are capable of playing very badly more often than is probably reasonable for a team that purports to be good. Even so, I don't think that a paucity of "shellshocked" opponents is necessarily the fairest, simplest, or plain most accurate way to judge the power of qb artillery. Allow me propose a better one: actually comparing, by way of publicly available stats, how our team did against the best of teams. Doesn't this seem eminently reasonable to you?

In any case, though I hate to "pump up" my own team, I think the stats from PACE playoffs speak for themselves. Now, I would scarcely suggest that a tournament we happened to do well at become the sole criterion for judging teams. Still, PACE playoffs do a fine job of gaging how good teams play against other good teams on difficult questions.

On another note, though I don't agree entirely with this killbill guy (DC quiz bowlers know their own area best, and are generally inclined to speak most about what they know most thoroughly; nonetheless credit is usually given where credit is due), there is a kernel of truth in his irritation. The fact is, certain D.C. area players seem to be giving unbelievable leeway to their fellow D.C. area players, leeway that I have never seen dished out before to anyone. We can argue about stats and improvement 'till we're blue in the face, and that's fine with me, but when you start saying things like "Gee, that Leahy fella would be amazing if he ever buzzed in" and "Gonzaga probably has other good people that I don't know about," and "One really good and one decent player = top 5," you should rightly expect astonishment.

[aestheteboy]

I heard some rumors that Douglas from Stuyvesant and Charlie from NKC may not be playing this season. I assume they are since they're actively posting here, but that's a factor that would affect my preseason view a lot since they are both extremely good, from what I can tell.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

My understanding is that Doug is doing a 5th year of High School and as such WILL be playing. I am playing now since it appears our ADmade up a nonsense requirement about MSHSAA eligibility (I need 2.5 credits per semester, not 2.5 GPA).

[segregold]

Allow me propose a better one: actually comparing, by way of publicly available stats, how our team did against the best of teams. Doesn't this seem eminently reasonable to you?

I probably didn't phrase my statement terribly well, I'm not suggesting that you're a bad team. I just haven't played you often or seen you at tournaments. If haven't heard much about you, well, I haven't heard much about you. I hadn't heard of Dorman either until Gonzaga's tournament last winter because they had been taking a year off when I was a freshman. If you want to prove your mettle to me via beating my team by 300 points first time we see each other, go right ahead.

The fact is, certain D.C. area players seem to be giving unbelievable leeway to their fellow D.C. area players, leeway that I have never seen dished out before to anyone. We can argue about stats and improvement 'till we're blue in the face, and that's fine with me, but when you start saying things like "Gee, that Leahy fella would be amazing if he ever buzzed in" and "Gonzaga probably has other good people that I don't know about," and "One really good and one decent player = top 5," you should rightly expect astonishment.

Wait, what? Dan Puma is an excellent player and Kevin Leahy is more than capable of winning games. Gonzaga could beat most teams even with Ted negging them out of tournaments, so I don't see why it is so astonishing to believe that, with him gone and the LeahyPuma coming into its own, Gonzaga is capable of placing in the top 5.

No offense, but I think non-D.C. area people should try to get over this resentment about us unfairly favoring our region. There are times, yes, when decent teams from Maryland, Virginia, or the District might be pumped up at the expense of good teams from elsewhere; I don't talk about DCC or Santa Monica as much as I should, considering they're great teams, but I only see them once a year at Nationals. Come on, though, what other region our size can boast 5 or 6 of the best teams in the nation? I don't think it's legitimate to assert that Gonzaga is some kind of a noob team because they happen to be from the D.C. area.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

I probably didn't phrase my statement terribly well, I'm not suggesting that you're a bad team. I just haven't played you often or seen you at tournaments. If haven't heard much about you, well, I haven't heard much about you.

I find that amazing considering Stuyvesant has gone to a fairly large number of D.C. and area tournaments for an outsider team.

[DumbJaques]

"Gee, that Leahy fella would be amazing if he ever buzzed in" and "Gonzaga probably has other good people that I don't know about," and "One really good and one decent player = top 5," you should rightly expect astonishment.

Going with your snide, condescending remark about publicly available stats, Kevin Leahy scored 3rd on the MSM ACE camp test despite the camp featuring more than a few of the universally acknowledged top players in the country this year. This was posted online in the ACE thread. Also, Kevin had many decent buzzes throughout camp, he needs to work on that part of his game, but as I said his strength at the moment lies more in helping out in bonus conversion (traditionally a weakness for one-man teams). Also, nobody said "other good people that I don't know about" or anything like that. The other people I referenced include the person who posted the highest number of perfect Camp quiz grades, including the only 10 on a very difficult quiz I gave. That at least indicates a kid with a good memory who is willing to put in significant work, which certainly won't translate to a buzzer rock. Zaga also had kids at camp, and coming to camp is indicative of a desire to at least marginally improve; this is a departure from the 3/4 positions for Zaga in years past.

Killbill continues to be ridiculous, but I don't think anyone posted things here that should lead to astonishment. I plan on including several non mid-atlantic teams in my poll when I submit it, but most people haven't seen those teams play. Had you been at ACE camp, you might be hard pressed to rank a team you know little about ahead of the impressive performances a number of players put up.

Does that seem reasonable to you. . . perhaps, eminently so?

[dyetman89]

I just haven't played you often or seen you at tournaments. If haven't heard much about you, well, I haven't heard much about you.

I can accept that, hey, D.C. is your region, and you're inclined to focus on teams you know best, and that you simply may not pay that much attention to teams from other areas that you haven't played against. I suppose that's reasonable (though when making nationwide predictions, it is of course inadequate).

However,

Wait, what? Dan Puma is an excellent player and Kevin Leahy is more than capable of winning games.

....

No offense, but I think non-D.C. area people should try to get over this resentment about us unfairly favoring our region.

...

I don't think it's legitimate to assert that Gonzaga is some kind of a noob team because they happen to be from the D.C. area.

You seem to have quite a taste for the straw man, and are making my argument out to be far more sweeping and haughty than it is. I accept that Puma is an excellent player (I have played him enough to know only too well) and, though I frankly have no idea what "Kevin Leahy is more than capable of winning games" is supposed to mean, I can accept that he is a very competent player who's lit knowledge was simply overshadowed by Ted's. I have nowhere stated that Gonzaga will be a "noob team", nor have I suggested anything in that realm. I have, to the contrary, stated that they will be a very good team indeed. They may indeed finish in the top five at NAQT, and as semifinalists at PACE; at any rate it would not surprise me if such a thing occurred.

Perhaps I too have been less than clear. I am making only two modest points:

1). That, though I believe Zaga will be top 10 next year, not enough evidence has been presented here to convince me that top five is probable at this juncture. You may have seen truly incredible performances at ACE camp, but not all of us have, and top five is a huge deal. Gonzaga did not have much science knowledge this year; in order to be top five, what with Dorman and TJ prowling about, they will need very considerable science knowledge indeed, and whether that can be garnered so quickly remains hazy. Furthermore, there were a number of teams with one "great" and either one "very good" or multiple "competent" supporting players that did not finish at the top of one or both nationals (see: MLK, East Lansing, Gonzaga, Troy, NKC).

All I say is: that it is very possible that Gonzaga will be top five next year, but that the evidence that I am aware at this moment leaves room for skepticism. When I see more concrete evidence, my views will of course shift accordingly.

2). That statements like "Leahy would be incredible if only he buzzed in" are not only insulting to Leahy, they do in fact make the D.C. quizbowl circuit seem like a circle-jerk. Come on! It smacks of impropriety for D.C.ers to speak of nonsense like this with one breath and then complain about resentment with the next. It makes it seem as though you impose laxer standards upon those you know and like, and gives more ammunition to troglodytes who simply resent the talent in the region.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

buzzer rock

MUELLER HAS AT LAST INFILTRATED HIGH SCHOOL EVERYBOODY RUN HELLEAT YOU ALIVE

[dyetman89]

Also, nobody said "other good people that I don't know about" or anything like that.

You're mistaken.

probably some other good people I don't know about.

[Wall of Ham]

Since there are so many differing opinions, why don't we have a national poll? After that we can attack only anonymous rankings.

[dyetman89]

Going with your snide, condescending remark about publicly available stats, Kevin Leahy scored 3rd on the MSM ACE camp test despite the camp featuring more than a few of the universally acknowledged top players in the country this year.

What is condescending about this? I was referring to the vague comments that had been made about Dan and Kevin, and how unsatisfying they were. I was in fact aware that Kevin scored very well on the camp test; I am also aware that he scored 5.57 PPG at nationals. I mean no disrespect to Kevin at all, and I think you know that, but there is a disconnect here. Your point about helping out on bonus conversion is fair, but at a national level, so-called "one-player teams" cannot have one player doing all (or even most) of the buzzing and expect to be top 5.

I also know that Kevin is a humanities player, and that what Zaga has sorely lacked in the past is truly deep science knowledge. I am merely trying to express healthy skepticism based on admittedly limited knowledge. I acknowledge this freely, and (contrary to your above statement) having played Gonzaga numerous times, and heard from Kevin himself ~2 months back about this very subject, leave all possibilities wide open. None of this sounds snide to me. It sounds sober and not in the least insulting, and trying to paint me as a prick with a mysterious axe to grind is silly.


EDIT: I thought I had in fact seen something posted on the ACE Camp about Kevin's performance on the quiz, but now I can't seem to find it. Am I wrong, Chris?

EDIT: my statement about publicly available stats was hardly condescending (though it may have been snide); I was not referring to anything to do with Gonzaga, but was merely asking that, if we're going to judge a team, we use statistics, first-hand knowledge, etc., instead of stuff like how freaked out the opposition is when it leaves the room. Where's the condescension?

[DumbJaques]

I seem to have misread some of your postings as referring to my predictions about Gonzaga when in fact it seems like a lot of them were specifically referencing Keith. I assume no responsibility for Keith's actions on the internet or anywhere else, so that's why I took issue with them. Looking back, I'm sorry for the confusion and your inquiries regarding Keith's woefully lacking "evaluations" are quite well-founded. Having this discussion half in the dc area thread and half here is also confusing me, and I think the posts I made in the DC metro thread about Gonzaga contain much more of an evidence-based argument for their merit. Again, my apologies, a lot of your concerns were really reasonable.

Still, your post was pretty condescending man. If you want me to point out why I found it so, obviously Keith's standard for evaluating your team or whatever wasn't a valid one in the traditional sense, and there are several ways you could have just said so (italicizing your comment came off as pretty condescending to me). I have a feeling Keith was trying to get at that he'd never heard of Stuy blowing anyone solid out of the water, and what you posted came off as pretty dismissive of a point that does contain some elements (though not very many) of what can be used to evaluate a team. Also, the whole "doesn't this seem eminently reasonable to you" thing sounded pretty snide to me.

In short, it's the difference between

I was not referring to anything to do with Gonzaga, but was merely asking that, if we're going to judge a team, we use statistics, first-hand knowledge, etc., instead of stuff like how freaked out the opposition is when it leaves the room.

and

Even so, I don't think that a paucity of "shellshocked" opponents is necessarily the fairest, simplest, or plain most accurate way to judge the power of qb artillery. Allow me propose a better one: actually comparing, by way of publicly available stats, how our team did against the best of teams. Doesn't this seem eminently reasonable to you?

It's probably best to get this thread at least marginally back on track now, so here's my breakdown of the teams in the country that I expect big things from. In no particular order, except approximately by region:

Eden Prairie - Michael Wright is the real deal and that Igor fellow seems solid. Stats from NAQT don't point to particularly solid 3/4s, but I don't have much info on that. I'd say they could give plenty of teams a serious run, but might struggle packet to packet at NAQT and could drop a few games too.

NKC: Charlie is back and might have some support this year. This team will be dangerous, and probably prone to the biggest range of performance. Unless NAQT ups its classical music distro to 5/5, this team is a pretty longshot for top 5, but is a reasonable bet for top 10.

Auburn: John Brown never really impressed me, but Siva and Michael seem pretty solid. Obstacles include a lack of serious pyramidal competitions against good opponents, generally known as Illisouri syndrome, and possibly a lack of extremely early buzz capacity, which tends to help in those big final games. On a related note, it seems like NT and Bloomington lost too many people to make much of a blip this year. Top 15ish.

East Lansing: I've never seen Kurtis play, but his numbers are impressive enough. It's my impression his teammates are less than capable in the extreme, but it's a long way until June. Top 10 material, most likely, but they'll struggle against 2, 3, and 4 person teams.

Garfield Heights: Bob is a good coach, Dan is a great player and Joe doesn't entirely suck. If both of them work very hard and they pick up some kind of support, you could be looking at top 15-10ish.

Stuyvesant: Doug had an excessively better PACE than he had NAQT. The supporting cast (is "Danny" returning?) seems serviceable. However, they also lost to. . . St. Andrew's episcopal? What? Losing to a 2-6 team forces me to bump your team from the top 10. Though I imagine that's where they'll finish.

Hunter: Guy is solid but he struggles to find teammates, and he's still only a junior. They're probably a year away from contending for top 5ish, and without significant development/more balance, probably won't be able to hit top 10 against a tough field.

Walter Johnson: Daichi is good. The others are the biggest question mark I've seen. I haven't had much experience with those people, but Daichi is dedicated and has the talent to compete with the top teams, though consistency against the best of them is doubtful.

Whitman: Returning a tough lineup, willing to attend college tournaments. -5 spots for not having the money to subscribe to DACQ. In all seriousness, a top 5 team if they stick with it.

Richard Montgomery: I will be extremely disappointed if they don't make top 5, with Jeffrey's senior year and Keith's continued development. Perhaps the most potential of any team in the country, but I'm unsure as to whether or not it will be realized. Stop negging Stephen Hurley.

Gonzaga: My dark horse for top five. Dan is the real deal, and I think Kevin is set on improving his play. I think there's real potential for the 3-4 spots to reach double digit numbers. Or not. Please don't let me down guys, or Yetman will laugh at me while clinging to his GED.

Thomas Jefferson: Tough, tough on paper. Inconsistency was an issue last year, and TJ has always struck me as a team that has wanted for chemistry. Still, just can't rank this team outside top 5.

Gov: Solid group of young players, certainly will be more than able to win matches against all but the top teams. Will likely struggle against the elites but will be incredibly consistent (this is the type of team that could easily upset a NKC, East Lansing, or Stuyvesant, as well as several others on this list).

Dorman: Like TJ, very tough on paper, and not wanting for coaching or chemistry. Not amazing in terms of powers, but pretty consistent. Even the top teams will have a very tough time with them.

MLK: Dallas will be monstrous by nationals, and Cody is solid enough. Add a third or fourth person to the mix and this team will be very, very impressive, and capable of beating pretty much anyone else here.

Santa Monica: Return their top scorer plus one more from an impressive squad. Always tough.

Chattahoochee, GDS, State College, Wayzata, DCC, Dorman B, TJ B, RM B, Dunbar, Danville, and several others are probably worth keeping on eye on as well. Also:

Grosse Point North: Stop throwing this team's name around. I'm looking at you, multiple-accounting killbill person.

Novi: Ditto. This team returns a total of like 8 powers from 2 NAQT squads, neither of which made playoffs. Failing to put up, I believe, naturally leads to. . .

[segregold]

I love how the Preseason evaluation thread has turned into a flame war.

That, though I believe Zaga will be top 10 next year, not enough evidence has been presented here to convince me that top five is probable at this juncture. You may have seen truly incredible performances at ACE camp, but not all of us have, and top five is a huge deal. Gonzaga did not have much science knowledge this year; in order to be top five, what with Dorman and TJ prowling about, they will need very considerable science knowledge indeed, and whether that can be garnered so quickly remains hazy. Furthermore, there were a number of teams with one "great" and either one "very good" or multiple "competent" supporting players that did not finish at the top of one or both nationals (see: MLK, East Lansing, Gonzaga, Troy, NKC).

Alright, beginning year evaluations are mostly (to me, at least, I don't know how the hell you do them) little more than educated guesswork. You're looking at a lot of new players, a lot of new lineups, people who haven't always been playing together or people who are playing together in different ways. There isn't much more you can do than that. Looking at a bunch of stats showing you how much Puma or Leahy or anyone scored in specific situations has very little relevance when you're trying to figure out how they will score in completely different situations.

My freshman year at Nationals, I scored much lower than I did my second year. Why? Because I was playing on a team with Chris Ray, Chris Higgins and Jeffrey Siegel, all extremely good players who took a lot of tossups I might have gotten. Looking at Nationals stats last year, you could have been excused for thinking I was not a very good player, just some random backup to round out the Chris Ray Machine. I hope that my playing last year shows that is not the case. Stats aren't everything, especially at the beginning of the year in a pre-season poll.

Looking back, I'm sorry for the confusion and your inquiries regarding Keith's woefully lacking "evaluations" are quite well-founded.

I have a feeling Keith was trying to get at that he'd never heard of Stuy blowing anyone solid out of the water, and what you posted came off as pretty dismissive of a point that does contain some elements (though not very many) of what can be used to evaluate a team.

Chris, your desire to disassociate yourself from stupid things I say on the internet is completely understandable, but I really don't think I've said anything stupid here. I made a valid assessment of what I predict to be Gonzaga's future abilities based on experience with playing against them, knowledge of their two top players, information I have been told by Puma and Leahy concerning other players on Gonzaga's team, and the record of the non-Ted players improvement over the two years I've been watching. The only things I did not use in this assessment were specific statistics, because, as I have said, I believe them to be fairly useless and misleading for a pre-season poll.

I admit that I did not use all of those methods of information gathering when I made the comment about Stuyvesant, for which I apologize, but whether or not I've heard of a team is usually a good indication of how skilled they are. Consultation with some of my friends on other teams indicates that my assessment of Stuyvesant was accurate; sometimes the simple ways work.

Yetman, I stand by my assessment that Gonzaga could make top 5 next year. Hey, Whitman made top 5, and I don't think anyone saw that coming back in August.

[Maxwell Sniffingwell]

Just an update on IL's NAQTers from last year:

Bloomington/Maine South/St. Ignatius: Bloomington keeps Hunter. Maine South keeps Jimmy. EVERYBODY else is gone - these three are (as much as it pains me to say) going nowhere.

Auburn/Wheaton North: The exact opposite of the above three: with all due respect to the 8.79 PPG of Zaid Siddiqui, no one's graduated. I pick Greg to make top 5 individually and both teams to go 7-3.

New Trier: Loses Carlo and Nick - they still have the talent and the work ethic, but they've lost the heart of the team. Should go from the great team of last year to simply a good team.

Loyola Academy: They could make the playoffs next year - Joe Ahmad seems especially strong at NAQT.

So that's one down, two up, one in, three out.

[gonzagaeagleahy]

I love how the Preseason evaluation thread has turned into a flame war.

Ditto, damn it's hot in here.
I dont want to stray off course from the main idea of this thread, but anyway, just wanted to clear up that Dan and I (we're both in Boston museum-hopping) understand what Doug's been saying and everything and especially respect those who have been saying stuff in our defense (Chris Ray is my hero; Keith we heart you too). Although it's still not gonna be a threat against major teams, our science has also been improving and already is much better than it was at the end of last season. But then again its all theory now, not results, so everyone's just gonna have to wait to see how everything turns out.

[segregold]

But then again its all theory now, not results, so everyone's just gonna have to wait to see how everything turns out.

Hear hear! And to all a good night.

I'm also going to go ahead and apologize to Doug Yetman. Sorry, man, I have been having a stressful week with impending school and all, and I got pissed at what I took to be a "condescending tone". Hell, though, I can't blame you for taking offense, I was sounding like a moron and I wasn't backing anything up. I get furious when people ramble on about how my team is going to suck too. So sorry about all that, hope there's no hard feelings.

As for all the rest of you, just take this as another clear sign why Keith is not supposed to make posts on the internets.

[killbill_07]

[quote=DumbJacques]Grosse Point North: Stop throwing this team's name around. I'm looking at you, multiple-accounting killbill person.

Novi: Ditto. This team returns a total of like 8 powers from 2 NAQT squads, neither of which made playoffs. Failing to put up, I believe, naturally leads to. . .[/quote]
First off Chris, I'm a graduated Novi player so please stop treating me as a troll. Secondly, you seriously discredit any legitimacy you might have had when you make ridiculous statements such as these. A cursory glance through our team statistics from the HSNCT this year shows that our A team alone had like 20 powers(uhh why does this even matter at all?). Not too great regardless but that's not the point. Frankly, our team didn't do so great at the HSNCT this year due to whatever reason but we're much better than what those stats show. I think we can both agree that one tournament isn't sufficient basis to judge the quality of a team especially when there are so many different factors such as strength of schedule, packet distribution, lineup fixing/changed, etc. that can come into play. Throughout the year, we were right up there with the top teams from Michigan such as DCC, Troy and East Lansing and have beaten or come extremely to beating these teams at NAQT tournaments. I think someone posted full tournament results from this year on a Michigan thread so you can check those as well if you so desire. Our top 2 players will be returning next year along with a very good 3rd player to solidify a strong core and give our team something we've always lacked: consistency. Our top player is easily the second best player in the state behind Kurtis and his supporting cast is much better than the one EL has, not that neccessarily translates to a better team considering how good Kurtis is just by himself. However, I can say with some certainty that these will be the top teams in MI at the beginning of next year with DCC losing so many people(although they end up being good by the end of the year) and Troy losing their two key players. I don't like to play up how good my team is at QB because I don't think that they're anything special at all, especially in comparison to top teams in the country, but the fact that you think they "fail to put up" is an insult that can't go unanswered.

Regarding GPN, they couldn't make the HSNCT this year due to HS Prom I think but I don't see how that disqualifies them from receiving any consideration. If the entire Richard Montgomery team became deathly sick the day before the HSNCT, would that make them any less of a team just because they couldn't come? Also, don't give me that BS about serious quiz bowlers having to put QB above all other commitments because I think the High School Prom is as good of a reason to miss the HSNCT as any other. Also, I can't even begin to fathom how you can insult a team that actually BEAT YOUR SQUAD in the 2006 HSNCT and was #1 in the whole tournament after the preliminary rounds last year? Still a little bitter perhaps? It's really not becoming of an excellent player like you. GPN is just as good as they were 2 years ago and they aren't graduating anyone next year. It's kind of how RM didn't drop off the face of the earth in 2007 when you graduated Chris. It's a familiar concept, is it not?

I don't mean to pick a fight with you or defend Michigan's teams of anything like that with my above response but I think it further validates my assertion that the DC/NE juggernaut refuses to give leeway or proper credit to teams outside of their little bubble. All of you are rushing to Gonzaga's defense when if I recall correctly at PACE this year when Novi played them, it was Ted who did basically all of the buzzing and bonus conversion. Somehow Gonzaga is supposed to be even better than they were this year when their clear best player graduated and this Dan kid turned into a beast over the last two months? Actually, it's definitely possible for this to occur because quizbowl's crazy like that lol. But if it can happen to Gonzaga, it can happen to any team that was reasonably good this year including Novi, Santa Monica, Dunbar, GPN, etc. etc. The only way that a preseason QB field discussion can be "fair and balanced" is if all good teams nationwide are given adequate consideration. In fact, that's probably the only way that this thread can even be somewhat useful if we really want to come up with some accurate standings.

[Sen. Estes Kefauver (D-TN)]

Oh my God you are retarded.

[Maxwell Sniffingwell]

I don't mean to pick a fight with you or defend Michigan's teams or anything like that with my above response

Quoted for humor value.

[BuzzerZen]

Oh my God you are retarded.

7) Basic civility is required.