I have an Excel sheet with every HSNCT player from 1999 to now and their prelim PPG/PP20H (This space reserved for when I eventually put it online and link it), which I was using for some other analysis that I might post at some time later.
I filtered out every player with fewer than 5 games played and counted the rest as "full HSNCT participants." This is admittedly an arbitrary cut-off, but I think that "played in half of a team's prelim games" is as sensible a cut-off as any. I also looked at players within this set that had at least 20 PP20H, on the hypothesis that these players are more likely to want to continue with quizbowl in college. I'm sure my numbers on individual HSNCTs are a little off, but here's what I found:
1) At any given HSNCT, girls make up somewhere around 15-20% of the "full HSNCT participants" field. In the past few years it's been at the lower end of that range, but there's no real trend downward.
2) If we look at only players scoring at least 20 PP20H (I chose this cutoff on the idea that these players would be more likely than the average HSNCT player to continue to play in college), about 10% of these players are girls. Since 2005, there has been a significantly increasing trend in the proportion of the field scoring at least 20 PP20H, but the proportion of those players who are girls has remained constant or maybe decreased a little.
3) Looking only at the first half of the sample chronologically, there were around 73 girls who scored at least 20 PP20H at at least one HSNCT between 1999 and 2006. These women combined for 11 ICT appearances total; not one played at more than 3. (I haven't gotten around to looking at the second half of the set yet)
Here are some things that stood out to me anecdotally when looking through the data:
A) There were some programs (for instance, State College) with strong female representation in both games played and points scored.
B) A number of the top high school teams are from private boys' schools, which should artificially depress the percentage of girls in high school quizbowl.
C) There were many girls in the 1999-2006 HSNCTs that I vaguely remember as having been active at some point when I was an undergrad, but who apparently never went to an ICT.
D) I don't have the data to back this up, but my impression was that there was a higher percentage of girls among the data points I threw out for not having played a meaningful number of games than there was in the data points I kept to analyze.
I have a few hypotheses about what this all means:
- It's a well-known hypothesis that "attrition rate" from high school to college is greater among players whose high school programs treated the competition more like a "sport," where most of the day-to-day decisions were made by the coach, as compared to high school programs run more like a "club," where many of the day-to-day decisions were made by older players (often after consulting a faculty sponsor/adviser). It is possible that, as Mike suggests, the first kind of high school program is more likely to attract girls. In this case, the attrition at the college level would be entirely expected, although there might be some kind of interaction remaining after accounting for type of program.
- It is comparatively easier to be a "token" female player in high school, where most tournaments are held within a ~2 hour radius, than in college, where many tournaments require overnight trips and staying in a hotel/on someone else's couch/etc. Think about the "I am a woman going to CO and looking for another woman to split a hotel room with" threads we've seen over the years, and condense those issues to the level of the individual club. Some anecdotal evidence is here at the high school level - almost all the teams that travel out of area regularly are all-male; seemingly every other team has either a female coach and a female player or multiple female players.
- It is comparatively harder to earn an ICT bid than an HSNCT bid. For whatever reason, women may be marginalized from the top SCT teams compared to their actual involvement in college quizbowl. This could mean competing on the top teams for programs that have a hard time getting ICT bids, competing on lower teams for regular ICT programs, or choosing not to compete but staying involved in other club activities.
Continuing to add onto Susan and John's list of questions, here are some things that I think are worth thinking about:
1) Is this a problem unique to quizbowl, or is it a problem with all high school academic competitions with a college equivalent (Mock Trial, MUN, etc.)? If it is unique to quizbowl, what can we learn from these other competitions?
2) Is the proliferation of online "quizbowl tools" that allow quizbowlers to be harmful idiots particularly harmful to female participation in quizbowl? I suspect we'd see this at the high school level first.
3) Quizbowl culture was notoriously female-unfriendly in the late 1990s/early 2000s, and yet this seems to have also been the era when female participation at the highest levels of the game was highest. Given all the changes that have been made since then to "improve" competition, is it possible that one or more of these changes inadvertently discouraged women from playing and/or disproportionately affected their ability or desire to be competitive?