The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

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ClevelandCavaliers
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The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by ClevelandCavaliers »

On April 5th, 2025, a fiercely-contested game at that year’s Intercollegiate Championship Tournament pitted Scott “Mitch” McCullar’s Penn State against Richard “Chard” Niu’s Cornell. Going into the game, Mitch was well aware that Chard was one of the best literature players in the country, and that to have any realistic chance of winning, he’d have to put together a phenomenal performance on the literature questions.

The round began. Mitch listened excitedly as the first literature question came bounding around the corner — but to Mitch’s horror, Chard, with a stroke of his finger, outbuzzed him to take it. He “cleanly beat me,” Mitch remembered. Mitch was ashamed, but determined to make things right.

But then came the second literature question. Pumped full of adrenaline, Mitch could now hardly focus. As he heard the first line, Mitch wondered if he knew it. He did, he decided; and besides, “I didn’t want to lose a Dog in the Manger tossup to [C]hard cause I thought he might know clues for that.” Mitch buzzed in.

“The Dog in the Manger?” he asked. He was wrong.

Mitch fell back. The moderator kept reading, and in disbelief, he realized that he knew the very next clue, and that his opponent, the seemingly almighty Chard, did not. Mitch was distraught; and as the tossups continued, he soon lost the game.

Mitch’s experience, while heartbreaking, is far from unique. Myriad quizbowl games each year pit otherwise solid and rational players against elite “boogeymen” whom they just can’t seem to play rationally against. Sometimes these “boogeymen” have comprehensively beaten the players in the past; and sometimes their reputations just precede them. But in almost every case, the rational players end up negging far more than they should, and the “boogeymen” end up winning.

Why is this the case? The answer, almost invariably, lies in something called heartrate theory. While playing “boogeymen,” rational players often experience increased bursts of adrenaline, leading them to have elevated heartrates. This leads to the manifestation of several symptoms detrimental to their level of quizbowl play, including but not limited to:
  • They begin to believe they must buzz early in order to have a chance to beat the “boogeymen.” This leads them to take unnecessary risks, or go for it when they’re on a hunch — and at well-written tournaments, this is almost always a bad idea.
  • Their fingers begin to tremble more; and this can cause them to buzz inadvertently, or to press the buzzer too far when they otherwise would’ve pulled back.
  • They begin to think about things other than the question at hand: for example, how badly they’ve been beaten in the past, how crucial it is that they win, and how difficult it must be to beat the “boogeyman.” This leads the player to lose concentration, and miss clues that otherwise would’ve helped them.
  • In cases when their teammates neg, they might become overly distressed because they believe their teammate has deprived them of one of the only chances to get a question against the “boogeyman.” This leads both to decreased team chemistry and further mental pain.
This need not be the case. In this post, I describe the psychology behind heartrate theory, before telling you what you can do to harness it for your own benefit.

What’s behind heartrate theory?

We start with what I call the “rational player.” In a normal quiz bowl match, a “rational player” should always “play the question, not the opponent”; they should buzz in only when they have sufficient confidence that their answer is the correct answer.

This confidence threshold varies from question to question (and from player to player), but it should generally be greater than 80%. Determining when your confidence will reach this threshold is in itself an art; players who are better able to project their confidence are more likely to win buzzer races, and more likely thus to “tilt” (or throw off) their opponents.

Some theorists may argue that players should buzz earlier against players they know to be better; but this is fundamentally wrong-headed. The reason lies in a fundamental cost-benefit assessment that derives from two main principles:
  • The “boogeyman” in question always has a chance to neg the question, allowing you to pick it up at the end.
  • The “boogeyman” in question is almost never nearly as scary as the “rational player” thinks.
But when otherwise “rational players” play the “boogeyman” (as Mitch did against Chard), the psychology of the “rational player” shifts due to both increased adrenaline and mental hopelessness. The increased adrenaline leads the player to experience an quickening heartrate, leading to both physical symptoms like trembling fingers and mental symptoms like racing and distracting thoughts. The mental hopelessness, meanwhile, leads the players to believe they must buzz in really early, even if it leads to a neg (as it’s just 5 points, after all) in order to beat the “boogeyman.”

It’s this lethal concoction that leads rational players to stumble and fall when playing “boogeymen.” It’s not because they aren’t good enough, but because they don’t know how to handle these delicate situations adeptly. And it’s this concoction “rational players” must learn how to fix in order to increase their chances of success.

What can I do?

If you’re one of the Chards of the world, harnessing heartrate theory to your advantage is as easy as one, two, and three:
  • Maintain a high degree of personal prestige. This means maintaining some distance from the wider community so “rational players” feel more nervous when coming into contact with you. Share the minimum necessary information about your knowledge base to players, so that they cannot excessively pore over your buzzpoints for weaknesses that will make them feel better. Post in complete sentences, and with capital letters, whenever you need to communicate.
  • During games, maintain the appearance of mental fortitude. Do not talk more than necessary; and when you do talk (say, to confer), talk with confidence. Say “great buzz” to your teammates when they get questions or pull hard answerlines, and have your teammates fist-bump you only subtly when you get questions. And use reverse psychology. If a player shakily gets a good buzz in your category, tell them “good buzz” so they feel that their get was only lucky, instead of a sign of things to come.
  • After the game, shake hands firmly and leave immediately. The closer you get to a “rational player,” the more the mystique wears off. Save your mystique so that you’ll come into the next game as the “boogeyman,” and thereby gain a decisive advantage over “rational players” ignorant of the malignancy of the heartrate effect.
If you’re one of the Mitches of the world, however, combatting the heartrate effect is much more challenging — in large part because you’re going against nature. But if you take the following steps, you can avoid the worst effects:
  • Take a deep breath. It might sound cliché, but we are evolutionarily programmed to be scared of certain things (and people), and if every muscle in your body is telling you to run, it’s difficult to play rationally. Relax your muscles, and relax your mind. Perhaps listen to a video of the Wim Hof method and breathe along, or listen to a comfort song. Put yourself in a headspace where you feel as if you’re in control.
  • Look directly at the “boogeyman,” and smile. There will be one of two responses. Either the “boogeyman” will smile back, in which case her seeming invincibility thaws; or the “boogeyman” will not, in which case her iciness will suffuse your subconscious with hate instead of fear. This won’t ever have a significant impact, but every bit counts.
  • When questions start getting read, stay locked in on the question. Banish all thoughts of the player from your mind. “Play the tossup, not the opponent,” in other words; ensure that you’re rationally thinking about all of the clues, and that you only buzz in when you’ve actually hit that confidence threshold.
  • Don’t try to make yourself the “boogeyman.” In my years of playing quizbowl, I’ve been the “boogeyman” a few times, and I’ve seen rational players tremble and mumble something along the lines of “oh yeah, I would’ve gotten that the next line” to their teammates after negging, when that’s clearly not the case. It only makes you look pathetic to the "boogeyman," and further adds to your mental pain as you subject yourself to the load of a lie.
  • If you do get a tossup early on in the specialty of the “boogeyman,” tell yourself “that’s right” instead of “phew.” Mindset matters. If you truly believe that that tossup was the first of many, you’ll play up to that level. If you believe that tossup was a stroke of luck, or that you’re glad you weren’t swept, however, things are much less likely to go well for you.
  • Seek support from your teammates when you get tossups against “boogeymen.” This support can subconsciously give you more confidence, and allow you to lower your own heartrate as you progress further along in the match.
  • When the match finishes, choose your words and thoughts wisely. If you’ve been beaten to more questions than you’d hoped by the “boogeyman,” don’t say “you’re so good” or think “man that wasn’t winnable.” Think instead that in another round, you would’ve played better; or that it was a good match, but the “boogeyman” experienced a lucky round. If you’ve beaten “the boogeyman,” engage in self-affirmation. Think, “see, I beat her!” instead of “I can’t believe I beat her.”
  • Outside of tournaments, bridge the gap between you and your “boogeymen.” As the brilliant Zhou dynasty strategist Sun Tzu said, “Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.” If you reach out and they reciprocate, that’s great! — you can now remove some of the frost that makes you so scared. If you play online, for instance, even better — you can calm your mind as to the skill of your “boogeyman” as you internalize that she isn’t as good as you thought. If you reach out and they don’t reciprocate, meanwhile, you can subtly shift your perception of the “boogeyman” from fear to hate. This only allows you to play with more intent while simultaneously keeping your heartrate lower than it would be under a “flight” response.
In his game with Cornell, Mitch did not follow these precepts, as he did not know them. “I should have waited until a clue I knew obviously,” he said — “it was definitely a bad play to take the guess at the approximate-sounding clue.”

If Mitch had followed the precepts — had he taken a deep breath before playing Chard, had he looked at his “boogeyman” and smiled, and had he stayed locked in on the question itself instead of his opponent, for instance — he might have gotten that question, and won the match. But he didn’t. Instead, he lost his control, and he lost the match.

It’s too late for Mitch now. But it’s not too late for you. Each of us has our own “boogeymen,” and each of us, without proper preparation, will be at a distinct disadvantage whenever we play them due to heartrate theory. But by following these precepts, we can make it so that we have a shot — and a shot may be all we need to achieve a most unlikely victory.

(All parties have consented to their inclusion in this post)
Andrew Zeng
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Re: The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by Serpentine284 »

This is an experience that I'm all too familiar with. I've been the "rational player" far too many times, quaking in fear of the "boogeyman." However, thanks to these techniques, I was able to steady myself and focus on each tossup, one at a time, and I was able to overcome my fear.

I want to share an example that supports Andrew's heartrate theory that I witnessed firsthand at this year's 2025 ICT. While I wasn't able to play this year, I was able to finish my playoff staffing duties a tad early and rush to witness an epic battle between Stanford A vs. Chicago A, with everything to play for. If Stanford A won, they would bring both teams to an x-3 record, with the winner of Cornell A and Toronto A's match advancing to an advantaged final against one of the three x-3 teams. If Chicago A won, they would force a one-game final with the winner of Cornell and Toronto's game, eliminating Stanford from championship chances. The game was a close affair the whole way through, with the lead changing hands seven times after John Marvin served up a clean buzz to give Chicago a 20-point lead going into Tossup 24. This was it. Whoever got this tossup would likely win the game and keep their championship dreams afloat. The tossup begins. I hear the topic, and immediately look over at Stanford A's history/geography/current events player. This is HIS category. He can't let this one slip. I see him sit up in his chair, ready to buzz at a moment's notice. The tossup goes past one line, then two. It's starting to get scary now, it's anyone's tossup. I can practically hear his heart pounding out of his chest from all the way in the audience. A brief moment of silence. And then-

*BUZZ*

I squint at Stanford's side, expecting to see the faint red light flashing on the buzzer. But it's nowhere to be found. After a brief pause, I hear a voice... on the other side of the stage. NED TAGTMEIER of Chicago A answers... AND IT'S CORRECT! Chicago A has secured the game! Stanford A eliminated! For that unnamed Stanford player, Ned Tagtmeier was his "boogeyman." His heart could not handle the pressure of that Tossup 24 against his biggest rival. And so, with a heavy and beating heart, he gets up and walks off the stage...

Don't be like the Stanford player. Follow Andrew's advice, and lower your heart rate.
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Re: The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by Good Goblin Housekeeping »

Teams should actually be aggressive more, particularly when it would convenience me.
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Re: The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by Mahavishnu »

I did not know "Mitch's" name was Scott!
Good Goblin Housekeeping wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 11:22 pm Teams should actually be aggressive more, particularly when it would convenience me.
Contrary to this thread's thesis, Andrew is correct. Furthermore, the so-called "boogeymen" knows every clue you do, and often a couple more, so you might as well go in early and at least have a shot. It's only -5, after all.
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Re: The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by 1.82 »

At the Maryland site of 2016 EFT, where I was playing solo, I was the top scorer in the tournament on biology questions, as you can see from the advanced stats:

Image

For those wondering, I got 10 on a tossup on DNA against Maryland A, 15 on a tossup on islands against Maryland D, 10 on a tossup on inflammation against Gettysburg, 10 on a tossup on plastic surgery against Gettysburg, and 10 on a tossup on the menstrual cycle against Maryland D.

The stats were read out after the prelim rounds and I was recognized for my science prowess and you could see a change come over Bibhav Poudel of Johns Hopkins B, who was now scared of me. In my first playoff game against Hopkins B, Bibhav promptly negged the biology tossup on the nucleolus, which I failed to pick up at the end because I don't know what that is. In my second playoff game against Hopkins B, Bibhav again negged the biology question, this time a tossup on spectrophotometry, which again went dead because I don't know what that is.

In the morning I had lost to Johns Hopkins B, but in the afternoon, after my supposed biology prowess had been revealed, I beat that team twice. It seems obvious that my aura played a significant role.
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Re: The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by L.H.O.O.Q. »

The thesis of this thread is interesting. I pride myself on my ability to adapt my play based on the people around me in the room, since I actually know very few things and have to make up the deficit with my instincts, including the occasional "I've heard this word next to this word" and the also-occasional "well, if this were a riddle, the answer would be..."

Amidst the wide sea of negs this approach has caused is one glorious power in the finals of 2019 SCT-DII: we're playing Ben Miller and Grant Li's Chicago E, who soundly whupped us two rounds prior. Early in that game, Adam Silverman reads a tossup where the first line features the name of a philosopher I've heard, and describes "a finger moving increasingly close to one of these objects," then the second clue begins by describing "people regaining the use of these objects." Several things are going on my head here:
  • I am, nominally, Purdue's "philosophy" player. In the coming months, Patrick Quion will study that field and pass me, but at the moment, I am our best bet at getting this tossup.
  • If I do not buzz early on this, I am likely getting beaten to the buzzer by Chicago. All four of their players have phenomenal power rates and very low neg rates, meaning that this buzz will very likely be correct.
  • If I buzz in and neg, they'll wait until the end to pick it up, and it'll be the same swing of points as if I don't buzz and they power on this clue.
  • This question is asking about a generic object, which means I can approach its clues like a riddle. If I do, I think the most likely answer is "an eye."
I buzzed in, threw out "an eyeball?" with zero knowledge, and was rewarded 15 points for being so smart and clever.

This is probably not a teachable moment. Lost to the left and right of this anecdote are many failed attempts at this very calculus - hopeless stabs at questions that turned out to have answerlines I'd never heard of. But I guess my lesson for this would be: if the way you have fun is by winning games, play rationally, and rely on knowledge over instinct. But if the way you have fun is by simply playing the questions and thinking laterally, be as aggressive as you want. The good memories are worth it.
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Re: The Heartrate Theory of Quizbowl

Post by Subotai the Valiant, Final Dog of War »

ClevelandCavaliers wrote: Thu Apr 10, 2025 10:38 pm We start with what I call the “rational player.” In a normal quiz bowl match, a “rational player” should always “play the question, not the opponent”; they should buzz in only when they have sufficient confidence that their answer is the correct answer.

This confidence threshold varies from question to question (and from player to player), but it should generally be greater than 80%. Determining when your confidence will reach this threshold is in itself an art; players who are better able to project their confidence are more likely to win buzzer races, and more likely thus to “tilt” (or throw off) their opponents.

...

When questions start getting read, stay locked in on the question. Banish all thoughts of the player from your mind. “Play the tossup, not the opponent,” in other words; ensure that you’re rationally thinking about all of the clues, and that you only buzz in when you’ve actually hit that confidence threshold.
I never expected to see "play the tossup, not the opponent" still being said by a Hunter quiz bowler in 2025... I thought we deprecated that half a decade ago. Although I suppose you weren't at the tournament where this phrase got its maximal notoreity.

For context, "play the tossup, not the opponent" was an old Luke Tierney saying that I (unsuccessfully) tried to ban after our one loss at LIFT 2018. In that game, we were approximately tied after tossup 19, and I called a timeout for a score check. Throughout the entire timeout, as a joke, my teammates repeatedly warned me to not be too aggressive and "play the tossup, not the opponent" despite me being 14/4/0 over our past two games. This ended up tilting me and causing me to not (correctly) fraud tossup 20 and to lose a buzzer race on the next line. Thankfully, we still won the tournament despite the loss.

Anyhow, a corollary to the "heartrate theory" is what I like to call the madman theory of quizbowl.

One way to instill fear and uncertainty into opponents (ideally ones you play often) is to play in such an unpredictable and unconventional style that they expect you to theoretically buzz on any tossup on any clue, causing them to start doubting their own game. This can take the form of winning buzzer races out of category, frauding on minimal knowledge, pulling hard bonus parts as if they're nothing, and other things where the other team starts to feel like everything will just go your way for the rest of the game.

Obviously, this style of play only works if you actually win, and it is of course very volatile. You will lose games by larger margins than you should. You will play bad games where you barely win against weaker opponents. But the long-term impact of being seen as a "madman" is worth the costs, when your opponents begin to believe that the positive insanity will happen every time you play, when they begin to see you as the boogeyman.
Daniel, Hunter '19, Yale '23, Mount Sinai MD ('29?)
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